2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSanders Builds on Lead Over Clinton in N.H.: CNN-WMUR Poll
A third of those polled say theyre still open to changing their mind; 64% say theyve definitely decided
NOTE: Poll surveyed 363 likely voters in N.H. Democratic primary between Feb. 4-8, margin of error +/- 5.1 ppts
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/trackers/2016-02-08/sanders-builds-on-lead-over-clinton-in-n-h-cnn-wmur-poll
If Hillary Clinton can get the difference under 20% tomorrow, I will consider that a win.
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)winter is coming
(11,785 posts)frylock
(34,825 posts)HILLARY 2016!
roguevalley
(40,656 posts)win she will claim if she loses by 10-30%?
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)In what world?
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)Even though Hillary won Iowa. So, if Hillary beats expectation in NH she should also get the same benefits. It'seems only fair unless you want to apply different double standard on Hillary Clinton.
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)Expectations in Iowa were that Hillary would win by a landslide. Nobody except hardcore Bernie supporters believed it would be that close. Right now in NH, polls suggest Bernie could run away with it, but I don't think anyone actually expects him to win by 20. I know *he* doesn't. I think the only way Hillary "wins" if she loses is if the final result is within 5 points. Then it will actually be a close election, which right now it's not supposed to be.
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)If Hillary can even dent that and lose by 20% then that'she a huge accomplishment and a win.
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)Where on earth did you get that number? The CNN poll? CNN has consistently polled Bernie higher than other pollsters, and if you look at the HuffPost average or RCP you'll see that he's up by about 15 points. It's very possible actual voting tomorrow is closer than that.
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)It's the only statewide news station. People in NH take a lot of stalk in its polling results. If Hillary manages to get the difference to 20% it's a huge win. Nh is Bernie's back yard. He should really win by 40%.
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)merbex
(3,123 posts)I was blogging out of there in '08 and it was so close that I couldn't get my Obama supporting friend to pick up his phone - he was so disappointed.
NH never fails to surprise either way - win or lose, imo.
speaktruthtopower
(800 posts)she'll outperform expectations. If she under performs expectations it could be an interesting few weeks because there are some filing deadlines approaching for big states in case another candidate is tempted to enter.
She has so many endorsements in so many states because no one thought it would be close. Tough climb for Sanders.
SheenaR
(2,052 posts)Then that's downright sad. Considering you were one to lead the charge against any Samders supporter claiming a moral victory in Iowa.
Eff that. Don't start backing down now. A win is a win. A loss is a loss. Especially when you already WON there. If you do that and lose by 20? Perhaps they should start panicking
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)SheenaR
(2,052 posts)That's what I thought
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)I call it a win. It would be historic. She would be the new comeback kid.
SheenaR
(2,052 posts)Heck you can call a dog's tail a leg and say it has 5 legs.
Calling it that doesn't make it so though.
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)if you want. That's your choice. But no one else, including Clinton and her campaign, will see a ten-point loss as a win.
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)She won by beating expectations.
angrychair
(8,732 posts)Poll, Clinton supporters will claim any showing a "win"...loss by 20...WIN....loss by 15...WIN...loss by 10...WIN
Sanders supporters claim "tie" in Iowa in what is definitively a statistical anomaly of .3 of a delegate and we are sore losers and crybabies.
Got it!
frylock
(34,825 posts)in order for him to be considered eligible to be considered eligible for office of president.
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)frylock
(34,825 posts)ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)reformist2
(9,841 posts)frylock
(34,825 posts)won't make up for the millions they end up costing Dems by throwing the election to Hillary.
TTUBatfan2008
(3,623 posts)it's not like she was up by 40 on him less than a year ago in the same state. Wait, wait...she was. Home state advantage didn't seem to make a lick of difference at that point.
This is the "shock" that Andrea Mitchell is likely referring to regarding the fact that the Clinton campaign is possibly making some staff changes in the near future. If I was in their position I would probably be pretty shocked by the change from a year ago as well.
SheenaR
(2,052 posts)But if there is one, there has to be a shakeup in the Clinton camp. With her national profile, she cannot be losing by 20-30 anywhere. That's unacceptable if I am donating big money to her campaign.
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)Karma13612
(4,554 posts)were talking with Hillary and she mentioned that if needed, they would make changes.
So, you could be right.
They might want to re-tool a bit after NH.
Will be interesting to see, after tomorrow nights results.
in_cog_ni_to
(41,600 posts)Tomorrow is going to be BERNIE DAY!
PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE
Jenny_92808
(1,342 posts)WooHoo
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