New post New Hampshire polls out today - RealClearPolitics.com

[CajunBlazer]

Arkansas Democratic Presidential Primary (Talk Business/Hendrix College) Clinton 57, Sanders 25
Clinton +32

Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary (FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell) Clinton 57, Sanders 28
Clinton +29

Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary (IMP/Target Insyght) Clinton 62, Sanders 30
Clinton +32

Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary (IMP/Target Insyght) Clinton 62, Sanders 30
Clinton +32

[Dawson Leery]

1. kick

[bravenak]

2. Imagine that!

Seems as if the firewall is not just in the South.

[orpupilofnature57]

3. None for New Hampshire Primaries ? How's that going in Iowa ?

[tm1323]

4. National Polls

Why is Bernie so close in the national polls but still seems to be well behind in every state?

[CajunBlazer]

13. There are some answers to that question:

1) Because Bernie is really not close in the national polls. Here are the last four national polls taken. The average of those polls has Clinton ahead by 13.3%. That really not that close for a political contest between just two people. You also perhaps remembering national polls in the middle of January when the difference between Hillary and Bernie was the smallest. Since then Bernie has trended a little downward and Hillary has trended a little upwards creating more separation between the two.

Quinnipiac 2/2- 2/4 484 RV Clinton 44 Sanders 42 Clinton +2
Rasmussen 2/3-2/4 574 LV Clinton 50 Sanders 32 Clinton +18
PPP (D) 2/2-2/3 517 LV Clinton 53 Sanders 32 Clinton +21
IBD/TIPP 1/22-1/27 349 RV Clinton 50 Sanders 38 Clinton +12

Average Clinton +13.3

2) Also recall some people in Iowa and New Hampshire were surely include in the poll samples helping Sanders out because Bernie does much better than usual in those states. There also may be other states like Vermont and other neighboring states which favor Sanders making the national distance between the candidates smaller is indicated than the Michigan and North Carolina polls in my OP.

3) Until the middle of June Bernie had been closing the gap not only nationally, but all in most state polls. Some of the state polls you have seen may have been older and thus somewhat higher than is the situation now - but the Michigan and NC polls I posted above were published today.

3) However, I think the biggest issue that not all polls are created equal. To save a lot of time and a lot of money, some polls use robo calls to get their data. For obvious reasons, including the fact that they cannot be use to call cell phones, robo polls are not as accurate as those which use live calls. Look at each poll line - there is a number and two alpha characters such as "484 RV" or "574 LV". The number indicates the number of samples used for the poll - the larger the number (everything else being equal) usually means a more accurate poll. The "RV" designation means the robo calls were used while "LV" means the poll used live calls. Notice what is common between the two national polls which gave Clinton the smallest margin over Sanders.

[NurseJackie]

5. Bernie doesn't stand a CHANCE! Looks like he's NOT going to be the nominee after all!!

I knew it all along!

Go, Hillary! We love you!

[roguevalley]

9. for now. consider she lost up to sixty points in some contests

I wish you luck because things change fast in politics.

[CajunBlazer]

14. There isn't enough time.

As I pointed out in an analysis in another of my OP's.. the main reason why Bernie is so far behind in many state polls is that he simply is not doing well with minority voter and many states have large numbers of minorities in the Democratic ranks.

Iowa and New Hampshire are among the states with smallest percentages of minority voters in the nation, so that problem couldn't really affect the outcomes much.

However, if you look at the Iowa entrance poll statistics you'll see the issue was there, just covered up because most Iowa caucusgoers were non-Hispanic whites. Bernie had months to convince minority voters in Iowa that he was their guy, yet he received only 30% of the minority vote.

Almost all the 13 states with primaries and caucuses over the next 19 days have very large minority populations, including Nevada, South Carolina, Colorado, the seven Southern states voting March 1st and Bernie is twenty to thirty points behind in all of them. There simply is not enough time for Bernie to convince all those minority voters to support him if they don't do so already, and most don't.

[Hoppy]

6. I don't want to be called sexist (even though I like sex) so I won't state the full quote;

"It ain't over until the --- ---- sings.

But if the campaign is going swimmingly, what is the talk about shaking up the campaign staff?

[californiabernin]

7. Those are a long way off. Nt

[CajunBlazer]

8. NC in 21 days

[dsc]

11. or maybe not

with our Congressional maps thrown out our primary may not be on afterall.

[californiabernin]

12. Long way nt

[BooScout]

10. K&R

[img][/img]

[CajunBlazer]

15. Kick

[pinebox]

16. Polls tied nationally

You have to admit, this is going to be a FUN election!

http://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-presidential-hopefuls-sanders-clinton-dead-heat-reuters-133828882.html

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has erased Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's wide lead for the Democratic presidential nomination since the start of year, putting the two in a dead heat nationally, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Clinton leads Sanders 48 percent to 45 percent among Democratic voters, according to the poll of 512 Americans, conducted Feb. 2-5 following the Iowa caucus. The poll has a credibility interval of 5 percentage points.

Democrats had been supporting Clinton by more than a 2-to-1 margin at the beginning of the year. Sanders has narrowed that lead considerably over the past several weeks.

Clinton beat Sanders narrowly in the Iowa caucuses, the nation's first nomination contest ahead of the November election, but is expected to lose to him in New Hampshire. The two rivals clashed on Thursday night in their first one-on-one debate, reflecting the tightness of the race.

There is still a wide gap between the two in name recognition nationally. Nearly a quarter of Democrats and two-fifths of Independents say they are still not that familiar with Sanders. In comparison, Clinton has almost total name recognition among voters.