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CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
Mon Feb 8, 2016, 06:48 PM Feb 2016

No Trump won't save Hillary in NH

Iowa had primary dynamics that are similar to NH.

Like NH, Iowa had same-day registration; and Indies could cross over, register Dem or Rep and vote for their candidate of choice.

According to what I read about the Iowa outcomes, Trump did not hurt Bernie in Iowa.

We had a large Independent turnout in the Dem party. This was the reason the lines were backed up and we ran out of registration forms. So many Indies crossing over.

The majority were Dem-leaning Indies--crossing over for Hillary and Bernie. In my precinct (and I think the general stats bear this out), Dem Indies went 60/40 for Bernie.

A minority were Republican-leaning Indies who crossed over to vote for Hillary and Bernie. I saw a good chunk of Republican-Indie women from the suburbs (upper income) who crossed over to support Clinton. That's a silver lining for Clinton supporters, and a stat that I have never seen discussed.

The majority of men and about 25 percent of women Republican-Indies, crossed for Bernie.

How does NH skew income wise? Lots of wealthy, suburban women? She may snag some votes in those demographics.

However, based on what I experienced in Iowa, Indies broke heavily for Bernie and Trump was not a factor.

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No Trump won't save Hillary in NH (Original Post) CoffeeCat Feb 2016 OP
I certainly hope you are right...I confess to being nervous. Punkingal Feb 2016 #1
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