Make your non-snarky NH prediction

[Godhumor]

I'm going with Bernie by 12:

Bernie 56
Clinton 44

[bravenak]

1. Bernie wins.

Minority voters go Hillary.

[Godhumor]

8. Agreed wholeheartedly n/t

[daleanime]

16. My prediction is....

Hillary will claim she made a come back.

[angrychair]

38. Yep

odd, civil rights organizations think he is doing a great job...if you want to go strictly by average of lifetime ratings, Sanders average is higher the Clinton's ratings, denoting a more consistently positive civil rights record.
Both are below for your review...
NAACP. 100% (most current as of 2014)
Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights 100% (most current as of 2014)
Drum Major Institute. 86% (most current as of 2012. Higher than most in Congress...higher than most in progressive caucus)
If you want to compare the same years as below:
DMI: 100% (2009)
NAACP: 100% (2007)
Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights: 94% (2008)
https://votesmart.org/candidate/evaluations/27110/bernie-sanders/13#.Vri3akSIbqA

Hillary Clinton
NAACP: 96% (most current as of 2005-2006)

Drum Major Institute: 0% (most current as of 2009)

Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights: 83% (most current as of 2008)
https://votesmart.org/candidate/evaluations/55463/hillary-clinton/13#.VrjAWESIbqA


so are major civil rights organizations lying or are you spinning to fit your own world view?

[bravenak]

39. They are not in control of our votes.

We decide who fits our profile best. Who hires us. Who stumps for our candidates. Raises money for them. Shows up when we have problems or disasters. Pays attention to us. Spends time in our communities often. Building relationships is more important than a point or two of difference on a sheet from any group.

[angrychair]

41. Ok

I get that. It is more than a point or two difference, both in a literal sense and figurative sense. That is not my point here.
I take no issue with you voting your conscious. That is what we all should do. What I don't like is the consistant framing of Sanders and his campaign as racist or sexist, when that is not the case. Sanders is not either of these things and has never been these things.
Disagreement with your candidate on issues is not sexist. I have no idea how he is framed as a "racist" in your world view, if, as you say, There is only "a point or two of difference on a sheet from any group."

Vote how you want but you do no one any favors when you so quickly let the "racist" or "sexist" term fly off the tongue.
Secondly, if your candidate wins the primary, you will need Bernie supporters to be successful. Given Clinton's supporters have spent months calling us racists and sexist, I don't see a lot of motivation. If we really are a bunch of sexist and racist, why would you want our vote anyway?

[bravenak]

43. I do not see anybody calling him racist

Tone deaf? Yes. Racist? No.

[angrychair]

48. We're getting somewhere

So (sincerely, no snark) would you be willing to explain (or reference articles) a little on the difference between Clinton and Sanders that leaves you feeling she is better aligned on civil rights and more in-tune with people of color?
I have to be honest, I am not seeing it. My circle of friends and associates, some people of color, are not either. To be fair, at least one of them, a black female, doesn't feel that either really has her interest as a black women at heart but is leaning toward Sanders due to income inequality.
I'm willing to listen, if your willing to answer.

[bravenak]

49. I swear to god hiring us is more important that saying things.

Holding views.
She screws up but WILL NOT GO AWAY. She is always right there! One of our politicians gets shot in his church and she is there! Comforting wives and holding children, right there, never far away. Who are her friends? Lots of black women. Did she not get her dorms unsegregated in college so she could be roomies with Grant Hills mom?


Hillary is warm. You may not see it, but she is more like us than not. Black women get talked about bad. So does she. So, we are in it together. Is she perfect? Nope. And the best thing? Nobody tells me she's best for black people. That is so rude. They just chill and ask for your support. No trashing Bernie. No listing their gripes with him. No anger, just resolve.

Blacks are mostly not interested in all that occupy wall street stuff. We were not very much in the movement because our issues that we find most important have nothing to do with the oligarchy. That means nothing to us since we have always been treated like pawns and possesions. That anger in his revolution? We have been doing much worse than the angry for centuries, nobody wanted to take it to the streets for us at anytime but us. Few will join a revolution that is not about racial equality from my demigraphic. No revolutions will be won unless we are there fighting. So until and unless the revolutionaries are ready to fight for us to get up to where you're at FIRST? We don't trust anybody to square it up later. Nobody wants to do that affirmative action revolution so we are not interested.

[angrychair]

58. Thank you

I appreciate you saying that. It is not my intention to devalue your perspective but only relate my own below.

Sanders first became noticed for his civil rights efforts at his university. It was and is a foundational component of his political career.

The part about going to incidents or disasters is tricky. High-profile political figures can be seen as pandering or using victims as backdrops for political gain. Even in Clinton's recent trip to Flint, MI, there were residents that felt it was not for the right reasons. I have friends that live just outside Flint, that is how they felt.
Some did like her doing that. Again, it's a tricky proposition.

For the last part of your criticism, I will concede poor messaging. It is one of my few criticisms of his campaign so far. I believe that not enough speaking time and literature is focused on Bernie's positions that specifically relate to issues that are important to people of color.
The debate formats so far have not dealt enough with it well either. They seem more focused on making headlines and creating friction and a terrorism threat that is low on the list for most Democrats.

I would love it if the debate in Flint becomes a referendum on issues important to people of color. That Flint is not unique and only a very visible reminder, that we, as a country, still have far to go.

[bravenak]

60. I agree.

I think that sometimes you have to take the risk that some will not want you there, but showing up is still half the battle.
I think had bernie spent more time interacting with groups of us regularly, he would have built trust.
Honestly, the best way to attract a type of voter is to have them Represented among your staff and supporters. Noticing a lack of diversity is crucial. Everything starts with basics. Job, food, housing. Trust us enough to place us in high positions and we know you respect us as equals and are willing to give that hand up. We always check.

[HerbChestnut]

2. Bernie 57, Hillary 43

57% will give Bernie a better delegate split, and I'm an optimist.

[Godhumor]

7. ... Did you just raise me by $1 on the Price is Right? n/t

[HerbChestnut]

15. What can I say?

I really want that delegate.

[cali]

3. Bernie over Hillary by 6

[virtualobserver]

4. Bernie 58 Hillary 40

[hill2016]

5. Bernie wins by 10

55 - 45

[kennetha]

6. Hilary pulls off an upset

as a large number of independents break for Donald Trump instead voting in the Democratic Primary for Bernie

[cali]

22. In that case, pollsters will have major egg on their faces

And we should no longer pay any attention to polls. The RCP average has him up over 13 points as of today.

[CBGLuthier]

9. Bernie by 25 yet Hilarity will give a victory speech.

[AtomicKitten]

50. +1

[restorefreedom]

59. snort. nt

[leftofcool]

10. Hillary +6

[Rocky the Leprechaun]

11. Bernie

Bernie: 65%
HRC: 30%
M'OM:5% (even though he suspended the campaign)

[MineralMan]

12. Bernie Sanders will win in NH.

He and Hillary will divide that state's small contingent of delegates to the national convention about 60-40 or something like that. It will make zero real difference in the delegate count as the cacuses and primaries continue. Starting in Nevada, then SC, and then Super Tuesday, the true picture will begin to emerge.

New Hampshire is the second state out of 50 to have a primary event that results in delegates being pledged. There will be 48 more such events. Putting too much emphasis on a tiny state like NH makes little sense.

Wait. There's more to come.

[Warren Stupidity]

14. When I was a kid we sometimes would go out

on the lawn and spin until we got so dizzy we would puke. Then some guy would yell at us to get off the lawn.

[MineralMan]

18. I see. I'm always happy to see kids on my lawn.

I have none of my own, so I enjoy it very much. It happens often in my little neighborhood.

I guess I'm not taking your point.

[gyroscope]

20. When Clinton won NH in 08 it made no difference.

she went on to lose the GE badly.

[kennetha]

25. GE? She didn't run in the GE

And she didn't lost the primaries badly. that was one of the most competitive presidential primaries EVER.

[gyroscope]

28. Thanks for correction

but 54 to 46 is not close.

[Warren Stupidity]

13. Sanders by 10.

[Armstead]

17. Bernie by 5

[MoonRiver]

19. Hillary wins by a hair.

Just like Iowa!

[kennetha]

30. hope you are right

If she does, the air comes out of the Sanders balloon.

[MoonRiver]

36. And that would be so sweet!

[Senator Tankerbell]

21. Sanders by 6.

54-46. Hillary and her campaign will declare a moral victory. The phrase 'comeback kid' will be used.

[HerbChestnut]

46. 54-46 is a difference of 8

[Senator Tankerbell]

47. OOPS!

[NurseJackie]

23. I'd be surprised if Hillary wins.

Bernie +8.

[stonecutter357]

24. split the delegates.

[elias49]

26. You picked my numbers!

I'm with you.

[DaGimpster]

27. Sanders by 10-12 .

[bklyncowgirl]

29. Sanders over Clinton in a photo finish. Trump romps by ten or so over Kasich, Cruz 3rd.

DEMOCRATS

I don't see a blowout for Sanders. With the Big Dog on the stump, throwing mud at Sanders, older voters who look back fondly on the Clinton years will come out in droves and that will blunt Sander's apparent strength in the polls. I look for Sanders to hang tough in the stretch and hold off Clinton's charge but it will be closer than his supporters will like unless her surrogates go to far and really, really piss off Sander's supporters.

Sure thing: 2-1 odds. Win or lose, unless it's Sanders by a mile, Hillary will declare victory.

REPUBLICANS

Rank and file New Hampshire Republicans love a rebel and Trump is their kind of guy. Since Kasich is the least damaged of the establishment candidate she should get up for second. Dudley Dooright will hang in for third or even edge the establishment guy for second. Bush and Christie, I think are done for as is Thirsty Boots.

Sure thing: 2-1 odds. Unless he comes in behind Carson Cruz will declare victory.

Longshot pick: 30-1 odds. Evangelicals drop Cruz and propel Carson into the money.
Longshot pick 2: 40-1 Party loyalists will melt at the heartwarming sight of Barbara Bush and rally to her baby boy's side pushing him past Kasich.

Win or lose

[enid602]

31. Sanders

Sanders by .215%.

[SidDithers]

32. Bernie by 8...nt

Sid

[DFW]

33. GMTA

My prediction was also Bernie by 12 before I opened your thread.

Of course, my prediction is based on pretty much nothing, so unless it's accurate, by some accident, it's not worth much.

[HillDawg]

34. Bernie

..by 8.

[LWolf]

35. Sanders.

By what margin, I don't know.

But I predict he'll win.

[SheenaR]

37. Sanders

53-47

[ram2008]

40. Bernie 58 Clinton 42

Think late breakers go against Hillary because of Bill resurfacing on the campaign trail.

[Tarc]

42. Bernie Sanders will win...

...for the last time until his home state of VT holds its primary on March 1st.

[TwilightGardener]

44. Bernie by four.

[H2O Man]

45. Bernie by 5.

[firebrand80]

51. Virtual Tie

Sorry, I can't not do snark

[awake]

52. I will go out on a limb Bernie wins big (better than +12) and Trump comes in 2nd

I am hope that the NH independents come on board in a big way leaving Trump high and dry so he will be seen as the Loser that he is.

[Alfresco]

53. Bernie will place next to last.

[cali]

56. I take it you think Nate Silver is full of shit

http://fivethirtyeight.com/

[Alfresco]

62. You don't think Bernie will place next to last?

[Alfresco]

66. Did my prediction confuse you?

[Alfresco]

68. :-)) DUH...

[hoosierlib]

54. Sanders 55% to Clinton 45%...

Clinton campaign claims moral victory and Bernie enjoys a cash bonanza and free media for two weeks...

[mikehiggins]

55. HRC closes the gap. Sanders wins handily. Bubba and HRC proclaim victory.

Somehow the media will forget that Sanders started out at 6 points twelve months ago. They will buy, process, wrap-up-with-a ribbon the "comeback kid" label for HRC.

Sanders will wind up the Democratic nominee.

[ProudToBeLiberal]

57. Bernie wins by 9, but they split the delegate count evenly. nt

[restorefreedom]

65. bernie by 12+

millenials 80%
women 60%


as to repubs

trump by 5-10
followed by kasich
rubio
cruz
carson
christie
bush
fiorina

[Cheese Sandwich]

61. Clinton 50.01%, Sanders 49.09% Comeback Kid!

[Fearless]

63. Hmmm... Bernie 59-39-2

The 2 goes to a random assortment of the rest, wrote in, and rounding correction.

[ram2008]

73. Looks like you're going to be the winner :)

I didn't too bad with a 58-42 prediction, hah.

[Fearless]

74. We did well, but the voters of NH did much much better!

[alcibiades_mystery]

64. Yeah, I think Bernie 57, HRC 42 and change

[Vinca]

67. You're probably about right. Trump will win on the other side by a YUUUUUGE margin.

(FYI - I just spotted my first 2 JEB! signs in our southern NH town this morning. It crossed my mind that I ought to stop and swipe them since they're soon to be collectibles. LOL.)

[1StrongBlackMan]

69. Bernie at +7. eom.

[Runningdawg]

70. Bernie wins by at least 10 points

[basselope]

71. 12 is my number as well.

[kenn3d]

72. Congrats to Bernie and all his supporters.

With 37% of the vote counted (@9:50pm est) the margin is currently being reported @20+%, and will likely exceed the pollsters' estimates/averages.