Prediction: Minorities Will Put Down Bernie’s Revolution

[CajunBlazer]

We have learned that the country’s changing demographics will have a major affect on future Presidential elections, perhaps starting this year. Minority segments or population of the United States are growing more rapidly then their non-Hispanic white counterpart and since minorities usually vote heavily for Democratic candidates, the GOP is expected to be increasingly at a disadvantage. However, the country’s minority voters are also expected to be a major factor in the 2016 Democratic primaries and caucuses. Hispanic and Afro American Democratic voters in particular are in large part less liberal than their white brethren and most don’t appear to be enlisting for Bernie Sanders’ revolution.

In Iowa minorities make up only 9 percent of the Democratic voting population, so as expected, entrance polls at the recent caucuses had only small groups of minorities to sample. However, if the data from those samples is accurate, Bernie is fortunate that minorities didn’t make up a greater percentage of the Iowa electorate during the caucuses. He had the backing of only 33% of the minorities who caucused while over 60% voted for Hillary Clinton.

That statistic will not matter a great deal in New Hampshire (February 9th) where minorities make up just 5% of the Democratic voters, but it doesn’t bode well for Sanders in the thirteen follow on state primaries and caucuses scheduled between February 20th and March 1st. A week after New Hampshire is the Nevada caucus (2/20). Nevada’s Hispanics make up one-fifth of the state’s voters. The state also has sizeable African-American and Asian-American populations so overall minorities make up 39% of the population of Nevada. Since most of Nevada’s minorities vote Democratic, they will make up an even larger percentage of the voters in the state’s Democratic caucuses.

Next on February 27th comes the South Carolina Democratic primary where minorities are expected to make up fully 55% of the voters. Then, four days later are the so called “Southeastern Conference Primaries”, consisting of 11 states and the territory of American Samoa, which are all scheduled for February first. The states participating will be: Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia. Obviously this set of primaries is heavily weighted with Southern states, hence the nickname.

All seven of the Southern states have very large Afro American and/or Hispanic populations. Yes, I am including Oklahoma whose voting population is 27.8% minorities. In addition, the white Democrats in these Southern states are more moderate in their political views than their more liberal counterparts in Iowa and especially in New Hampshire and that does not bode well for Bernie Sanders. .......

Entire article here: Prediction: Minorities Will Put Down Bernie’s Revolution

[Peregrine Took]

1. Possibly so....more's the pity. n/t

[artislife]

2. Linking to his own site.

What bollocks!

[farleftlib]

7. LOL

Isn't that precious?

[artislife]

12. There is a degree of narcissism....

[Depaysement]

20. A degree?

You must be a nice person.

[slipslidingaway]

40. Thanks for te heads up! nt

[Live and Learn]

42. His own site dedicated to anti-Bernie blogs. And the comment section is locked.

[CajunBlazer]

61. You don't have to rely only on my research and expertise

I guess I am not the "expert" to predict future problems for Bernie among minority voters.

And, next time read my article before you comment - it is jam full facts that are hard to dispute. Even if you don't like what the facts are telling you, you ignore them at your own risk.

FiveThirtyEight; We Got Berned

(snip)

So why do I still think Sanders is a factional candidate? He hasn’t made any inroads with non-white voters — in particular black voters, a crucial wing of the Democratic coalition and whose support was a big part of President Obama’s toppling of Clinton in the 2008 primary. Not only are African-Americans the majority of Democratic voters in the South Carolina primary (a crucial early contest), they make up somewhere between 19 percent and 24 percent of Democrats nationwide. In the past two YouGov polls, Sanders has averaged just 5 percent with black voters. Ipsos’s weekly tracking poll has him at an average of only 7 percent over the past two weeks. Fox News (the only live-interview pollster to publish results among non-white voters in July and August) had Clinton leading Sanders 62-10 among non-white Democrats in mid-July and 65-14 in mid-August. Clinton’s edge with non-whites held even as Sanders cut her overall lead from 40 percentage points to 19.

There are other indications that Sanders is unlikely to win the nomination. He hasn’t won a single endorsement from a governor, senator or member of the U.S. House of Representatives (unlike Obama at this point in the 2008 campaign). Sanders is also well behind in the money race (again, unlike Obama). These indicators haven’t changed over the past month.

But even if you put aside those metrics, Sanders is running into the problem that other insurgent Democrats have in past election cycles. You can win Iowa relying mostly on white liberals. You can win New Hampshire. But as Gary Hart and Bill Bradley learned, you can’t win a Democratic nomination without substantial support from African-Americans.

[artislife]

63. I stopped reading at "my expertise"

I don't believe it, remember, I have read your words and "expertise" is not what came to mind.

I am Latina. I cannot name anything that h has ever really done that helped my people. She even said to send the vulnerable back to Central America. A place she helped teeter into chaos.

No thanks.

[CajunBlazer]

66. Thank again for the numerous kicks - you're great

Another Rec was posted since your last reply - and another heart too - please keep it up

Wow you actually had something substantive to say this time. You are truly a minority among minorities and while Hispanics as a whole are not flocking to Sanders, it is the black vote which is going to kill the revolution.

I know you didn't read the linked article on the FiveThirtyEight site, it said that while overall Bernie has improved his nationwide poll numbers recently, at the same time the critical black vote numbers have not budged and Sanders's support among black voters remains between 5% and 10%.

You can try do down play my expertice, but in my article simply pointed out that Bernie captured on 30% of the minority vote in Iowa although he had many months to appeal to minorities in that state. However, in Iowa and New Hampshire are mostly lily white.

My point is that after NH there will be 13 states voting in the next 20 days and all of those states (except Vermont) have large black populations which will not be voting for Bernie. Bernie won't have much time to convince them otherwise. As a Bernie supporter YOU WILL NOT LIKE THE RESULTS. I will seek you out March 2nd and we can talk then and maybe you will have come to have more respect for my "expertise".

[okasha]

68. The corollary to that

is that there are large minority populations in delegate-rich states such as Texas and Florida. Bernie hasn't even risen to visibility in most of Texas and is unlikely to win much of anything outside the university precincts in major metropolitan areas.

And yes, we'll do the deed if it's left to us.

[Oilwellian]

72. But it's an Article!

Damnit!

[Ken Burch]

3. It wouldn't be any victory for POC if HRC is nominated.

The less-progressive candidate can never be better at fighting bigotry.

[elias49]

13. Good point. I like that.

[tblue37]

39. +1. nt

[HERVEPA]

4. How many more times are you going to post your non-variation on this one?

[wyldwolf]

5. minorities are in bed with the 1%

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

21. LOL!!!!

[HooptieWagon]

6. It would be very ironic...

...if minorities saved the Wall Street candidate. Wall Street was built by slaves and first served as a slave market. Stock shares were occasionally traded at a nearby tavern.

[politicaljunkie41910]

26. Ironic indeed. But whatever.

Maybe, just maybe, minorities are skeptical about how Bernie's Revolution would impact them, if it ever come to pass. I'm happy that they aren't jumping on the Free Stuff bandwagon. It's a healthy skepticism which is well earned. I understand that White People are angry that they can't find jobs. But when Blacks and Brown people were being pitted against one another to drive wages lower, and then their low-skilled factory jobs were outsourced and they couldn't find jobs, middle class suburbanites said, meh! When their middle class factory jobs began being outsourced, than, "Houston, we have a problem". People in New Hampshire's white middle-upper class enclave want help YESTERDAY because they have a drug epidemic which is killing their children who became addicted to using heroin and opiates out of boredom. (Boredom is not my definition, that's what 60 Minutes implied when they did a story about the drug problem in NH last year.) Where was the anger when they were locking up Black and Brown children and throwing away the key because they couldn't find jobs or opportunities, or their fathers and uncles were in jail and there were no jobs so they turned to drugs and crime to survive. Where was the outrage when young blacks and browns couldn't get jobs because of criminal records which occurred as teens or they were charged and sentenced as adults. Now they want to remove from job applications, employer's right to ask the question whether an applicant has a criminal conviction. Who does this benefit? White applicants, since even in the absence of the question, white employers will assume that the minority applicant has a criminal past since the statistics bear out that 1 in 3 African Americans are in the penal system, either currently incarcerated or on parole.

I, too, have a health dose of skepticism that somehow, should Bernie's Revolution succeed, one of these things, will happen: 1)Free College Tuition will lessen the quality of that education since things that are Free tend to have less value than things that you have to pay for. Or 2) There won't be sufficient funding even from the tax on Wall St, or the funding will eventually be siphoned off to fund other government projects, or 3) slots at the universities will go to non-Minorities who as a group perform lower on achievement tests because they live in poorer neighborhoods, with less resources.

[HooptieWagon]

30. Minorities have every right to be skeptical.

I hope that skepticism applies to all the candidates, and they do their homework and make the best vote for them.
Bernies proposals are sound. They only seem radical because TPTB are spreading the propaganda that they can't be done. That's bullshit. Every first world country except the U.S. has universal healthcare coverage...at better quality and much lower cost. Even many 2nd and 3rd world countries have universal coverage. If Cuba can do it, surely we can. Many countries also have free or low cost college, that too can be done.
Bernie also voted against NAFTA, H1B Visas, the TPP, and every other job killing bill. Hillary supported them. Don't blame white liberals for Democratic Party failures in addressing minority issues. Liberals have not been in charge of the party since the 80s. Corporatists have controlled the party since President Clintons election in 1992. The Liberal Democrats have been fighting this problem since then.
If you decide that Sanders is the candidate that can lead the country in the direction you want, then vote for him. If you decide the status quo is what you want, then Hillary Clinton is your choice.
My apology if I sound preachy, that's not my intent. Just study the candidates and make your independent choice.

[politicaljunkie41910]

36. You would have been preaching to the choir back in 2008. My husband worked on the Obama campaign

in 2008 and 2012. I couldn't because I wasn't allowed to. I saw the enthusiasm of the campaign workers and I whole heartedly embraced universal health care even though my husband and I had good healthcare benefits through his job. I knew that my current health benefits could change and was willing to risk that for the greater good.

But I also watched while the GOP sat on their hands and did everything they could to block the ACA. I saw how the parts of the ACA were watered down to meet the concerns of the Bluedog Democrats who resided in purple states. I'm too old now to believe in messiahs. The moderate middle is gone from the GOP and I think Trump will be the likely nominee. I watched as the GOP tried to destroy Bill Clinton's administration with bullshit investigations and I'm watching it play out again against Hillary. I'm jaded. I will survive, either way because I have been an accountant for 34 years. I put three kids through college. I also put them through catholic school because as a member of a minority, I knew that I only had one chance to give my kids a good education. I began buying US Savings bonds when my first child was born in order to be able to send them to college and my husband and I did.

The difference is that I saw my neighbors and friends buying new cars, new things, and taking vacations on the credit cards or equity loans. I also watched my kids friends at college have credit cards, iphones, expensive video games, vacations on spring breaks, etc. I couldn't believe then how much the colleges were willing to give these kids in the forms of Student Loans, and my kids didn't have what many of their peers had, because I refused to complete the FASA forms and they couldn't get the loans without our filling them out. Well, my kids did finish college and although they were mad at us for about a day, because we wouldn't allow them to run up the student loan debt in order to have what their peers had, or the fact that I cut up the credit cards the Credit Card Companies were allowing them to apply for on campus, they were grateful latter on, when they watched their friends run up those Visa and MC credit cards on pizza and the movies. My husband and I while we had good jobs, and we had a nice home, we drove all our cars until they could not run any longer. My youngest son whose 26 is currently driving my former 14 year old Honda Accord. My husband drives a 1998 Honda Accord, and he has a 1993 GMC Truck that my 2 sons drove when when they learned to drive in high school and bought himself his dream car a Corvette when he retired several years ago, a 2008 Corvette in 2010 with 17000 miles on it.

I joined the military and went to school on the GI Bill because as the 5th of 9 children, I knew my parents were struggling to try and send my siblings and me to college, but they were determined that we were all going to go. My oldest sister wanted to a doctor since she was a child and they were trying to help her accomplish this. She ended up obtaining an Armed Forces Professional Scholarship which paid for her medical school but in return she had to give 4 years of service to the Air Force as a physician which she was glad to do to be debt free. She also had to complete her residency before she went into the service, so it was a long time before she made any real money as a physician, but it was worth it not to have been saddled with the student loan debt if she would have had to pay for medical school herself.

When I got out of the military, I went to a community college first to get as much of my lower division classes out of the way. I worked 16 hrs on the weekends as a cashier, and I worked 20 hours of work study on campus during the week at minimum wage. I graduated from college with a B.S. in Accounting in just under 3 years going to school year round, and with just a little over $5000 in student debt; since we had a child then. I also planned a second pregnancy giving birth just before I graduated from college, because I knew I had to go to work full time immediately after graduation in order to help my husband with the income needed to raise two children, pay off my student loan, and save for a house and retirement. We later had a third child. So I know it can be done. I began buying U.S. Savings Bonds to help finance my kids college education my first day at work and my husband and I made sure we saved 10% of our income from the outset. My adult daughter confided in me that growing up, she thought that we were poor because she didn't have the designer shoes, video games, and things that her friends had. My husband and I were blessed to have lived in nice neighborhoods, predominately white, because I knew the property would appreciate faster than in a minority neighborhood and although I knew that all my neighbors were living beyond their means, it was hard not to give in to that kind of lifestyle, but we stayed true to ourselves.

[HooptieWagon]

38. Sounds like you really have your shit together.

And congrats to you and your husband doing such a great job parenting. I'm sure your kids are gonna be fine with all that good sense you taught them.

[politicaljunkie41910]

43. Thanks, I appreciate your kind words.

[CajunBlazer]

45. You and your husband are great examples of what all Americans should strive to be

Congradulations!

[brentspeak]

31. And plenty of minorities lost their jobs, homes, and retirement funds when Wall St. tanked

everything in 2008.

[HooptieWagon]

32. Yep.

I don't know why any minority, or anybody at all, would support a Wall St candidate, but it's their vote.

[HassleCat]

8. Afro Americans?

Haven't heard that in a while.

[TheBlackAdder]

10. I think the last time I heard that was when watching the movie "Black Dynamite!" nt

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

22. The racism is amazing. And there's nothing funny about it. It's disgusting.

[Ken Burch]

29. OK. I'll delete. n/t.

[CajunBlazer]

46. Are you calling me a racist?!?! If so back off quickly!

I originally used the word "Black" for that population segment in the article, but some of the demographic sources I found in my research for the article used the term, "Afro American".
Not wanting to offend anyone I went though the article and substituted that term.

You don't know me. Therefore, I would appreciate that you keep any opinions you have on that subject to yourself rather than indulging publicly in unfounded speculation.

In other words, don't go there!

[artislife]

48. Why don't you write a blog about it and link to it...

Writing is so theraputic.

[CajunBlazer]

52. Another fatastically intellegent comment - great strategy used by Sanders supporters

If you can't attack the message, attack the messenger.

Thanks much for the kick.

[artislife]

55. Happy to kick, if only to expose your tactics!

If anyone is still reading this, CB likes to cite the musings of ...well.. CB. As if he is an authority.

Really.


I know, right?!

[CajunBlazer]

56. Thanks much for another kick - I'm begining to like you

[artislife]

58. Any attention is good attention in your mind...

That's what hillary thought.


But yeah at linking to your own blog as an authoritive voice...if only in your mind.

[CajunBlazer]

62. I don't expect good attention from Bernie supporters like you

While most Hillary Supporters would not rather tangle with folks like you because they see no up side in the interface, notice there are 15 Rec for my OP. Your constant kicks are keeping the OP near the top of the board where more people who will appreciate my analysis will have an opportunity to read it

Thanks for your help from the Hillary fans.

[artislife]

64. 15 whole recs.

Well done.


I like exposing your narcissism. I am holding your mirror.

[CajunBlazer]

67. 16 now - Thanks

[Depaysement]

25. I caught that too

How interesting.

[mak3cats]

9. And ANOTHER post into the Trash Can... (eom)

[artislife]

49. His link is to his own blog...bwahhhh! nt

[thereismore]

11. I know you'd love to put out a progressive revolution. nt

[Arazi]

15. Blatant attempt to boost blog stats fails spectacularly

Better luck next time

[LexVegas]

17. None of the minorities in my family trust him.

Then again, neither do the white people.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

23. Neither do mine. They may not like Hillary, but they're not for Bernie, either.

[DemocraticSocialist8]

18. This Thread Is Wishful Thinking At Best...Most Blacks Are Still Undecided.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

24. Link?

[DemocraticSocialist8]

34. It's in the new PPP National Polling Data

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

35. O.K., I'll check that out. PPP is pretty reliable.

[Jarqui]

19. I've been trying to track Nevada but found little in polling or campaign news

One poll in January by an outfit folks around here do not trust that said Hillary had fallen to +4 in Nevada

Bernie has recently said
"I think you will be surprised at how well we’re going to do in Nevada and South Carolina"

https://www.ralstonreports.com/blog

In a measure of how important Hillary Clinton thinks Nevada may be -- hello, firewall -- she has increased her TV spending here, but she still lags behind Bernie Sanders. On the GOP side, Marco Rubio's SuperPAC and his campaign have spent the most, showing how critical Nevada may be to his fortunes. The numbers, according to an expert who tracks campaign spending, show Sanders has spent $1.7 million in Nevada compared to Clinton's $1.4 million. But Clinton has purchased more time in the last two weeks ($670,000) than Sanders ($565,000).

Said one smart Democratic observer: "Sanders demonstrated some serious organizational strength in Iowa to basically eliminate her lead on the ground. If that holds, Nevada should be competitive. Nevada will be the first real test in a Democratic electorate that looks more like America-- and his ability to compete in the general (e.g. will have to mobilize the diverse Democratic coalition)."

I think Nevada and South Carolina are tests for his campaign. I don't think he has to win either one of them and he probably is too far behind in South Carolina. He may well have a shot in Nevada.

Nevada will show if he's made progress in Latino support. South Carolina will show if he's made progress with the blacks.

Any attempt to say it's over now is like calling the football game after the first play.

If he's stuck and can't improve his numbers with them, then it's over. I don't think that's going to happen with the recent endorsements he's been getting. But until then, he's very much in it.

Sanders numbers have been on a fairly steady upward rise. A lot of people don't know him or his policies yet. I think the issue for the campaign is just getting the word out. If they can win NH, that will help grab more free media attention to make those next states a better test

[TCJ70]

27. That would be a shame...n/t

[Cheese Sandwich]

28. Prediction: Apologists for neoliberal capitalism will use online ratfucking tactics to drive wedges

between white progressives and people of color.

[whatchamacallit]

41. +1

[kath]

44. +another

[frylock]

60. Winner.

[Bluenorthwest]

33. All seven of the Southern States have laws allowing discrimination against LGBT in housing and

employment. So yeah obviously it's not a liberal place and it's people are driven by fear and superstition. Rife with antisemitism as are all places that are deeply homophobic.

I assume the author of this self promoting tripe is a straight white man who lives in a Red State.

[AgingAmerican]

37. And if they do it will cost us the general election

And if and when that happens, I will have zero sympathy for them in the aftermath. Minorities will have most of their rights stripped from them, particularly voting rights, and will feel the brunt of what the right wing unleashes on this country.

[kath]

47. read this excellent piece, as a good counter to the bullshit in the OP:

By Shaun King http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/king-african-american-firewall-clinton-insulting-article-1.2521962

[slipslidingaway]

50. + 1000 nt

[Matariki]

51. That really is an excellent piece

thanks for posting it. It deserves it's own OP if it doesn't exist already.

And this quote from Danny Glover made me verklempt:

"This campaign is a rare, perhaps unprecedented event in this country's modern electoral history. It deserves the support of everyone who favors social and economic justice."

[AtomicKitten]

53. k/r this post

Thanks.

[Stuckinthebush]

54. Looks like NH may do it first!

Oh, the rich irony!

[MellowDem]

57. What an inflammatory title...

You can't blame minorities for Sanders not winning the nomination (as the title seems to). Blame our conservative populace. Some minorities may be among the more conservative demographics in the Democratic Party, but they are more liberal than the white population in the US as a whole.

And also realize that minorities are not automatically progressive.

The US is incredibly conservative relative to other developed countries on quite a few issues, don't expect it to get much better just because of demographic shifts.

I place blame on the Democratic establishment as well, which has incredible power in picking a nominee, and which is fully behind a moderate conservative. The population is conservative, the powers that be love the status quo and will continue to enforce it and exploit any division they can to do so.

[frylock]

59. bookmarked

[workinclasszero]

65. Bernies high peak will be NH

Hillary will win the nomination running away after that.

[Art_from_Ark]

70. But in your own words, she'll never be President

[MrMickeysMom]

69. So, you're quoting YOUR OWN BLOG's PREDICTIONS...

That's nice, dear...

[azurnoir]

71. why aren't you saying it's your blog? oh wait ...........