New Marquette Law School Poll: Obama leads by 11 in Wisconsin

[WI_DEM]

(so much for the Ryan effect):

Obama continues to lead Romney in Wisconsin

Milwaukee, Wis. – A new Marquette Law School Poll finds Rep. Tammy Baldwin’s lead over former Governor Tommy Thompson has tightened to a 48 percent to 44 percent margin among likely voters. In the September 13-16 Marquette Poll, Baldwin led by 50 percent to 41 percent.

In the presidential race, President Barack Obama continues to lead former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, 53 percent to 42 percent. In mid-September, Obama led 54 percent to 40 percent.

Partisans remain strongly united behind their party nominees in both races. Baldwin and Thompson each receive the backing of 92 percent of their respective partisans. Obama is supported by 96 percent of Democrats, while Romney gets the votes of 92 percent of Republicans. Independents split evenly in the Senate race, with Baldwin and Thompson each receiving 43 percent. In the presidential race, independents support Obama over Romney, 49 percent to 40 percent. Independents have become more closely divided since mid-September’s poll when they favored Baldwin 50-38 and Obama 53-38. In August, independents favored Thompson by a 10-percentage-point margin and Obama by 2 percentage points.

“While partisans are providing a solid base for both parties, independents are proving more variable in both the Senate and presidential campaigns,” said Marquette Law School Poll Director Charles Franklin. “In August, independents leaned a bit Republican in the Senate and slightly Democratic for president. In mid-September, they leaned strongly Democratic in both races, and now they are swinging back to a more competitive balance.”

The poll of both landline and cell phone users was conducted September 27-30. The November matchups and candidate image questions are based on a sample of 894 likely voters and have a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. Other results are based on 1003 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.

http://law.marquette.edu/poll/

[TexasCPA]

1. Ryan VP choice awful

Can't deliver WI and loses votes in FL.

[fleur-de-lisa]

2. Hope Ryan loses his congressional seat, too . . .

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

3. Rob Zerban

And the risk of being accused of spamming, here's the link to Rob Zerban's website. He's Ryan's opponent in the WI 1st CD.

http://www.robzerban.com/

Follow the donations link and show the man some DU love!

[hrmjustin]

4. This is a great polling firm.

For Romney to win without OH he would need WI. Does not look like WI will happen for him.

[TexasCPA]

5. Romney can't leave OH

WI, MI, and PA are out of his reach. He can't replace those EVs from OH. To lose OH and win the election Romney would have to run the table on VA, NE2, FL, CO, IA, and NV. Even if the election tightens up, I don't see Romney winning winning NV.

[hrmjustin]

6. I agree. He can not leave OH, but he won't win it unless he really has a break-out moment.

He also can not give up on WI, however it looks like WI has given up on him.

[yellowcanine]

7. Well as Mitt said re PA, "We really would shock people if (if we were winning Wisconsin on Nov 6)"

"We really would shock people if early in the evening on Nov. 6 it looked like Pennsylvania was going to come our way," Romney told several hundred donors who paid as much as $50,000 to attend a private event at the Union League in Philadelphia. "That could happen."

That COULD happen, Mitt. And you COULD become a human being.

[TexasCPA]

8. McCain campaigned hard in PA

It was declared very quickly after the voting ended. McCain didn't come close.

[TroyD]

9. So Obama lost 3 points from the last Marquette poll?

I think it was (+14) a couple weeks ago. Still a good number though.

More important may be the Senate race. Has Baldwin also lost several points since the last poll? Is she only at (+4)? I thought she was at (+9) in the last Marquette poll.

I notice that both she and Thompson have high unfavorable numbers, although the good news is that his seem to be worse.

[DCBob]

10. You can easily check the polls on RCP to answer all your questions.

Dont fret it.. Wisconsin will go blue once again as long as the voters show up.