Nate Silver: Is the Presidential Race Tightening?

[Doctor Jack]

The latest projection is up and the article to go with it explores the sudden narrative that the presidential race is tightening.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

If you want to save some time, here is the final conclusion: No, no its not. In fact Obama appears to be pulling away even more in the electoral vote, while national polls are just showing some random noise in no particular direction.

[regnaD kciN]

1. Not actually "pulling away"...

When Nate write that article at midday, Obama's forecasted victory odds were 85.7%. In this evening's report, after figuring in today's results, the odds dropped a full point, to 84.7%. Still a huge lead, but not "pulling away" -- in fact, just the opposite (albeit by a small margin).

[courseofhistory]

3. It is statistically insignificant because

The Nov. 6 forecast, however, our signature product, is already assuming that Mr. Obama’s numbers will decline some, in large part, because it continues to weigh economic factors along with the polls. Those economic factors, in view of the formula, are more in line with only a very narrow win for Mr. Obama, on the order of two or three percentage points, similar to the margin by which George W. Bush defeated John Kerry in 2004

.

It is a slight decline more due to factoring in the different economic factors each day not due to any major shifting in the polls.

[Doctor Jack]

4. I meant pulling away in the swing states.

Perhaps "solidifying his electoral vote lead" would have been a better choice of words.

[realFedUp]

2. No way

Dr. if you are even examining someone's inner organs....

what a lot of bull hype.
Obama has a brain, Romney can't find his
Obama is the President, Romney got kicked out of Massachusetts after doing a particularly poor job
Obama can actually tell the truth, Romney can't remember what he said from minute to minute.
Obama earned his way up the ladder with some affirmative help, Romney was affirmatively helped from birth

If the morons in this country only read the facts, we'd have a better informed population.
Republicans and the very wealthy who have R's after their names depend on stupidity to sell
their products and keep their tax status even lower than the rest of the population.

Their arrogance will bury them.
Good luck, Republican newbie.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

6. Who's a Republican newbie?

The OP?

[budkin]

5. Um, no.

No