ARG New Hampshire Tracking Poll -Sanders 53% (-1) Clinton 41% (+3)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/dem/nhdem.html

[Dawson Leery]

1. His 30 point lead is disappearing as we speak.

Good.

[DemocraticSocialist8]

2. He never had a 30-point lead

That CNN poll was clearly an outlier. He has a solid 10-15 point lead

[SusanCalvin]

3. Thanks for that info.

The 30-point lead was the only one I saw, apparently, so I was initially rather started.

[book_worm]

4. U.Mass tracking also gave Bernie a plus 30 lead

and several other polls +20.

[MoonRiver]

5. I'm starting to think all CNN polls are outliers.

Makes you wonder.

[NurseJackie]

6. Bernie is in FREEFALL!! His numbers are IMPLODING!!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. I am not going to get carried away...I will err on the side of prudence.

I will say he was +30 on Monday.

[NurseJackie]

8. Actually ...

... I'm mocking the exuberant exaggeration and hyperbole from BS fans. It does look a little silly, doesn't it?

[Vote2016]

9. Aren't all of the poll tightening after the tie in Iowa? Isn't Clinton's lead collapsing in polls

where she was ahead and Sanders' lead narrowing in New Hampshire.

What else would anyone expect after the tie in Iowa?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. A close victory is not a tie.

Close only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades, nuclear war, and... flatulence.

[Vote2016]

12. Maybe you haven't been following the news out of Iowa. It's smelling like Romney-Santorum 2012 redux

We'll see how this all plays out and -- probably Clinton will hold the lead but the news out of Iowa is bad for Cruz and bad for Clinton.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. I would hate to be in the same lump with Trump challenging the IA results but that's just me./nt

[thesquanderer]

15. I understand that Bill Clinton and Charles Manson both ate at McDonald's. (n/t)

[Vote2016]

16. With these headlines: "Clinton Iowa Caucus EXPOSED! Caught Committing VOTER FRAUD (Video)," I'd also

panic if I was a Clintonista.

Here's an update via the New York magazine report, "Des Moines Register Says Iowa Democratic Caucuses Were a ‘Debacle,’ Calls for Audit":

the editorial board of the Des Moines Register on Thursday called for an audit of the results to provide greater transparency and tamp down the inevitable conspiracy theories.

... we can’t stomach is even the whiff of impropriety or error. What happened Monday night at the Democratic caucuses was a debacle, period. ... the refusal to undergo scrutiny or allow for an appeal reeks of autocracy.

The Register is alluding to the resistance of the state Democratic Party to an audit based on the traditional objection that candidates had — or at least were allowed to have — representatives in every room where votes were counted. Indeed, the whole process is largely self-policed by candidates.

{T}he results were too close not to do a complete audit of results. Two-tenths of 1 percent separated Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton. ... much larger margins trigger automatic recounts in other states.

Too many accounts have arisen of inconsistent counts, untrained and overwhelmed volunteers, confused voters, cramped precinct locations, a lack of voter registration forms and other problems. Too many of us, including members of the Register editorial board who were observing caucuses, saw opportunities for error amid Monday night’s chaos.

I was "observing caucuses," too, and saw a lot of the same chaos and "opportunities for error." ... The bottom line is that the Register is asking Iowa Democrats to turn over a lot of rocks from beneath which a lot of things that will not reflect well on Iowa will crawl out, and without necessarily resolving the question of who really won. Its suggestion of a "blue-ribbon commission" to improve caucus operations (the Iowa Republicans did something like that in 2012 after the state party put a big thumb on the scales of media coverage by erroneously calling Mitt Romney the winner on caucus night) makes sense. But the more everyone stares at the caucuses, the more questions will come up. In that respect, an audit would, if nothing else, reinforce Bernie Sanders's claim that the results were a "virtual tie." Who can say otherwise?

.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. Here is the address for the IA Attorney General

Here is the address for the IA Attorney General:

Tom Miller
Office of the Attorney General of Iowa
Hoover State Office Building
1305 E. Walnut Street
Des Moines IA 50319


If there is evil afoot he needs to made aware of it.

Entrance/exit polls used to be the gold standard for checking/verifying elections results. Hillary Clinton was leading in them 50-44%:

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/02/entrance-polls-predict-clinton-and-trump-wins.html

How do we know she wasn't the victim of chicanery

[Vote2016]

19. Entrance polls as the "gold standard" for checking a caucus? Is that an honest error or misleading

on purpose?

How do we know whether she was the victim of chicanery? An audit. Let's get one.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. Exit/entrance polls are a good way of checking actual results.

What else would you compare them to?

[Vote2016]

21. You know how Iowa's Democratic caucus works, right? Even if the entrance poll was 100% accurate,

which is isn't, it woudl not refects a caucus result.

Ask yourself, how did O'Malley do in the entrance polls? How did that reflect his ultimate performance? Why the discrepancy?

You cannot honestly answer those questions and hold fast to your statement that entrance polls are the "gold standard" for verifying a caucus.

Discrepancies have been uncovered -- why wouldn't a Democrat (or a democrat) want that audited?

[thesquanderer]

14. 12 points behind with only 3 days to go, doesn't look good for her...

...especially if you dismiss there being any value in just coming close, or in beating expectations. From that perspective, if nothing mattered about Iowa except that Hillary won, then nothing will matter in NH except that Hillary lost. (Unless, of course, she wins!)

[mcar]

11. K&R

[workinclasszero]

17. HILLARY is SURGING!!!