United States House of Representatives elections, 2016 - Feel the Bern

[FreakinDJ]

United States House of Representatives elections, 2016


Elections to the U.S. House will be held on November 8, 2016. All 435 seats will be up for election. Additionally, there will be special elections to fill vacancies that occur in the 114th United States Congress.

In order to flip control of the chamber, the Democratic Party needs to pick up 30 seats, a nearly impossible task. Presidential elections tend to result in smaller changes to House partisan balance than midterms. The last two presidential elections saw gains of only eight and 24 seats for Democrats.[1][2] While it is extremely unlikely that the Democratic Party will be able to gain control of the chamber in this election cycle, Democrats can still hope to reduce the majority that the Republican Party holds. Republicans currently hold their largest majority in the U.S. House since 1928.[3]

The coinciding presidential election is likely to have a significant impact on the elections for U.S. House. Presidential election years lead to increased voter interest and turnout, which has an effect all the way down the ballot. In the past decade, presidential elections have led to Democratic gains in the U.S. House, while midterms have helped Republicans. If the trend holds, Democrats should look to pick up some seats in November.[3]

https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2016

This is exactly why Bernie's campaign, bringing in SO MANY NEW VOTERS into the Democrat's Big Tent is so important. Some thing so important that so far has eluded the Hillary camp.

Sen. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.)

Kirk narrowly defeated a scandal-plagued Democratic candidate by less than 2 points in the 2010 Republican wave election. In the 2016 presidential election year, he will likely face a much more Democratic electorate.

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.)

Polls show Johnson isn’t that well-known or well-liked in Democratic-leaning Wisconsin, where he won by 5 points in the 2010 GOP wave


Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.)

Toomey faces a potential rematch against former Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.), who he defeated by a narrow margin in 2010.

Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.)

Ayotte hails from more of a swing state than Toomey, Kirk and Johnson, and Republicans believe she’s done well to shore herself up in New Hampshire

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/228020-10-senators-who-could-lose-in-2016

[Renew Deal]

1. In 2006 there was a 435 to win campaign. Is anyone doing that this year?

There was a Democrat running almost everywhere that year.

[FreakinDJ]

2. What - You thought DWS worked for the Democrats

Only Bernie so far has commented on the 50 State Plan for the Democrats

[dsc]

3. the Presidential race will have a very limited impact on the House race

To take, an admittedly extreme example, NC. Our delegation will be 10 GOP, 3 Dems no matter what (unless the decision that threw out our maps survives appeal). The Dem districts have margins of around 70 percent in our favor, while the GOP ones are all at least 5 and most are 10 in the GOP favor. Barring some sort of massive scandal on the part of a GOP candidate we have literally no chance of gaining any of those seats.

[uponit7771]

5. +1

[FreakinDJ]

10. Another Clinton "No We Can't"

Congrats

[uponit7771]

12. That's Sanders take on reparations so I'm not seeing too much light between the candidates when it

... comes to possibilities

[FreakinDJ]

7. The Tea Farty has out lived its welcome in Washington

Tough Tests Looming in 2016 Raise Stakes for G.O.P. in Midterm Elections

WASHINGTON — To understand the Republican imperative to capture the Senate in the midterm elections, look toward 2016, when a narrow victory this year could well be swept away.

The 2016 elections may be far off, but the Tea Party class of 2010 is shaping up to be problematic for the Republican Party. The challenges raise the real possibility that the party could seize control of both houses of Congress in 2014, only to lose it two years later as Democrats reclaim some of the seats lost in the Tea Party wave.

Even some Republicans say they are pressing that point.

“I’m helping win the majority in 2014, and I’m making the point that 2016’s going to be a very different map for us,” said Senator Rob Portman, Republican of Ohio, who will face his own headwinds running for re-election in a presidential year.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/12/us/politics/2016-headwinds-raise-stakes-for-gop-in-this-years-midterms.html?_r=0

[dsc]

14. we have a good shot at the Senate

but the House is quite probably out of reach. We need to pick up several seats but we have a shot at several seats. Wisconsin looks great, Illinois also looks great, PA, Ohio, and NH are also good possibilities. But in the House has a very limited number of competitive seats all of which we would have to win and then we would have to win some more besides.

[uponit7771]

4. Those GOP seats are historically and digitally gerrymandered so there's NOTHING Sanders can do to ..

... get the GOP house members out of them.

That was the effect of the 2010 election where the GOP was allowed to redraw the districts, they redrew them with computers that made it more probable that you can jump to the moon than a GOP house member lose their gerrymandered seat.

These guys can literally burn down a pediatric oncology ward in joker face on prime time TV and still keep there seats

That's what Sanders doesn't want to talk about with his "revolution"; congress will have to be gone AROUND and not be dealt with... that's Clinton's tactic... Sanders will soon follow her lead.

Sanders doesn't want to talk about it cause he knows it'll turn his arguments against the establishment into petulant outburst seeing they're doing their best with a nearly unworkable situation in congress.

And

He's NOT proposing doing anything better other than having a trillion people outside of Mitch McConnell window which hasn't worked so far

[FreakinDJ]

9. Not True

Bringing a wave of new democratic voters to the table would change every thing

[uponit7771]

11. OK, that's fair... how big will the wave need to be to get the gerrymandered GOP congress out of

... their seats on avg?

Remember, they drew the district lines with computers this time.

let me know

regards

[FreakinDJ]

13. Depends on the Courts too

Didn't they just over turn several and have appeals awaiting on a few more.

Extremely tough districts - 5%

[raging moderate]

6. Good point. BTW, Mark Kirk is a US Senator from Illinois.

Until I moved to Maryland this past fall, he was one of my senators. Dick Durbin (D) is the other Senator from Illinois.

[raging moderate]

8. Tammy Duckworth, courageous military veteran, is running against Mark Kirk this time.

Tammy Duckworth is smart, energetic, perceptive, warm hearted, and courageous. I believe she has a good chance to unseat Mark Kirk. Let's all hope so!