Source: TPM reporting that polls are narrowing
....two surveys released Monday showed the race reverting to the neck-and-neck status
- snip -
New numbers from ABC News and the Washington Post showed Obama with a 49 percent to 47 percent lead over Republican nominee Mitt Romney among likely voters, and another poll from Politico and George Washington University (GWU) produced the same result.
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He still gives Obama great odds but he has reduced the percentage by some tenths of a point. Also, Romney is now ahead in NC by a very slight margin so it's rated a tossup again by many organizations. RCP average has gone down 2 days in a row from 4.1 to a current 3.5. The popular vote poll percentage has increased, however to 52.1% vs. 46.6% for Romeny. This bothers me. I'll have to read more of this article and tomorrow's to see what the reasons are for the decrease in odds (very small though) and the increase in the National vote. It may be in the rest of the article which I'm too tired to read right now.
What do others think?
New Polls Raise Chance of Electoral College Tie
By NATE SILVER
As of Monday’s FiveThirtyEight forecast, there were 21 states that Barack Obama was projected to have at least an 85 percent chance of winning on Nov. 6. The list includes three important states, Ohio, Wisconsin and New Hampshire, where Mr. Obama’s polling has improved by an especially clear margin since the Democratic convention. It did not include several others, however, where he is favored, but less definitively so, such as Virginia, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado and Florida.
If Mr. Obama’s overall standing holds in its current position, he should have no trouble winning some of those states, perhaps along with others like North Carolina. But suppose there is a deterioration in his polls between now and Nov. 6 — or that the polls have overestimated his standing across the board. And so Mr. Obama wins the states where he has at least an 85 percent chance of victory in the forecast, but no others. Then we’d be left with the following map:
Go to link to see map and read the rest of the article!
If you add up the electoral votes in that case, they come out to Obama 269, Romney 269: an exact Electoral College tie. The election would then be thrown to the House of Representatives, which would cast votes based on the provisions of the 12th Amendment.
[link:http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/|
This is the map referred to and the probablilty chart still looks really good for Obama (on the right).
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