2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumJust released PPP (D) National Post Iowa Poll-Clinton 53% Sanders 32%
gradually moving closer- our previous couple polls had her leading 56/28 in December
and 59/26 in November. But he still has some weaknesses that may make it hard for him
to catch up. Primary among these is African American voters- Clinton leads 82/8 with
them and has a 79/9 favorability compared to 27/23 for Sanders. That does suggest some
possibility for Sanders to improve his position- part of his problem is just that black
voters dont really know him yet- but hes starting at a tremendous disadvantage that will
make the upcoming run of Southern primaries very difficult for him.
Bernie Sanders continues to make in roads with most segments of the Democratic
electorate, said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. But his continued
struggles with African Americans could give him a lot of trouble when the contest moves
beyond New Hampshire to states where theres racial diversity.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_20416.pdf
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)How far off were they in Iowa?
treestar
(82,383 posts)does that show that the caucus is thus not effective as to determining what the voters want?
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)A tie freezes the race where it was, with Clinton comfortably ahead.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)he will be Burnt toast after super tuesday.
Maybe he can count on his friends at FOX NEWS to muddy the waters in other primaries and cement in his sore loser persona?
GarnettCL
(1 post)That is good for Bernie.
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)PPP has been in Bernie's camp the entire primary.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Oh wait....
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)So if we assume that 8 is their margin of error (or bias) then we should subtract half of that (4) from Hillary's 53% leaving her at 49%.
Then we should add 4 to Bernie's 32% to have him at 36%.
That seems like a more reasonable estimate.
Next, lets see what happens after New Hampshire.
stonecutter357
(12,697 posts)jeff47
(26,549 posts)Surely their national polls will be just as accurate!
DCBob
(24,689 posts)..when the contest moves beyond New Hampshire to states where theres racial diversity."
So is this also Hillary playing the race card??
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)Most AAs do not support Bernie.