UMass Lowell New Hampshire tracking poll day 4: "Hillary coming Back"

[book_worm]

MANCHESTER, N.H. (WHDH) -
It's not an earthquake, yet...But the political ground in New Hampshire is moving.

We're seeing more of Iowa's impact, and the war of words underway here.

Hillary Clinton is coming back; and Marco Rubio is coming up.
Sanders still has a significant lead over Clinton-- 58% to 36%-- a 22 point margin.

But look at the direction of the tracks: Sanders is down three and Clinton is up four, our biggest single gain since we started this poll.

http://www.whdh.com/story/31137507/hiller-instinct-7newsumass-lowell-new-hampshire-tracking-poll-day-4

Day 1: 61-30 Sanders +31
Day 2: 63-30 Sanders +33
Day 3: 61-32 Sanders +29
Day 4: 58-36 Sanders +22

This indicates that with rolling averages and days that fall off that after the Iowa victory Hillary has been coming back pretty strongly in NH--probably not enough to win it, but make it much closer than anticipated.

[Trajan]

1. Well, you and the bankers can celebrate ....

Have fun

[Dem2]

25. what a nasty post

Is this really how we want to treat each other?

[NowSam]

30. You got that right

Slanted table. M$M and "polls" all theater. They tell us who is up and down and then diebold decides in accordance with whoever the 1% chooses. do we have integrity in our voting systems?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. It's all about the narrative./nt

[DCBob]

3. The comeback girl!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. ...

[TwilightGardener]

15. How is she a comeback? Didn't she win in IA?

Or "win"?

[Armstead]

20. Comeback from what? I thought she "won" Iowa and beat Bernie back

[TwilightGardener]

21. Right--maybe this polling bump is her being fresh off her big "victory"?

Shouldn't we expect the triumphant frontrunner to win a state she's won before?

[Cali_Democrat]

37. The OP is about New Hampshire, not Iowa. nt

[winter is coming]

5. The +30 was never a realistic number. This is sandbagging. n/t

[book_worm]

6. probably not realistic but if the trends continue

his victory could be much less than anticiptated and that will set the media narrative.

[winter is coming]

7. The polls themselves are a "narrative". I wonder who paid for them. n/t

[Godhumor]

12. I can absolutely 100% guarantee you that UML polling isn't paid for by a campaign

And, if it matters, the guy who runs it is a Bernie supporter in his non-job capacity.

Actually he would fit in well on DU. He was a Kucinich supporter in 2008, too.

[kenn3d]

34. Hi Godhumor

Do you give this UML "tracking" poll more or less credence than the Ipsos/Reuters national rolly-poll? Are they not similar in methodology?

The composite RCP NH chart continues to show Sanders' lead increasing since the IA caucus results.


I doubt this gaping difference will be sustained through the voting, but I'm inclined to think that any momentum since IA is still Bernie's.

I'd like to hear your opinion.

[Godhumor]

35. Hi to you, too. First I'm not exactly unbiased

Last edited Thu Feb 4, 2016, 10:33 PM - Edit history (1)

The guy in charge of the UMass Lowell is a friend of mine.

But, he's trying to do something pretty unique. Reuters is a rolling poll using internet entries from a self-selected group that cannot produce a MOE (They have to use a statistical equivalent). Josh's group is actually doing live interviews every day via cell and landline and basically running a traditional poll, just with an incredibly short turnaround time (He is already getting a little loopy from lack of sleep this week.). Daily tracking, even with a 3 day roll up, is notoriously volatile and subject to changes due to good days rolling on or off. But, within that framework, UMass Lowell's methodology is more sound.

[kenn3d]

38. Thanks

I always appreciate your insights. Cool that you know the UML pollster.

I'll be very surprised if the final results of this NH primary are as lopsided as they appear right now. But I'm hoping that the future states contests will also be tighter than they currently appear.

[restorefreedom]

19. this was the plan all along

to hype the living shit out of that one 30+ poll so they could push the "she is coming back" narrative

i think anderson's first question to Bernie was referring to the poll, "how can you NOT underperform?"

gods, they are so transparent....

[TwilightGardener]

22. Yeah, the Clintons have a LOOOOOONG history of playing the expectations game.

The Sanders camp needs to learn this and lower expectations for him.

[restorefreedom]

23. from what i heard at town hall

bernie is already on it. but yes, his team needs to get out front more aggressively.

[TwilightGardener]

24. Right--they can't be overconfident, they have to turn out every vote,

and they have to say that they HOPE they win but expect it to be a tough fight because she's been the presumptive nominee for years.

[restorefreedom]

26. he was great on it last night

reiterating that they have made progress against the most powerful political force ever...the clintons..

nailed it!

[TwilightGardener]

28. I always remember that Obama won Iowa, and then immediately lost NH.

And then he had to fight like a SOB for the rest of the race. Bernie will have it even tougher. It's not for the fainthearted, going against not only the Clinton Machine but a good chunk of the Dem establishment too. Obama had the advantage of having some Dem heavyhitters behind him from the start.

[restorefreedom]

31. yes he was not as hated by the establishment as bernie

going to be a huge uphill,all thhe way. but a double digit win in nh will help, and i think he has a good chance of at least a ten point spread. i would feel more comfy with 15, but any double digit win will help him

[TwilightGardener]

32. I'll take a single digit win. Take a page from the Clinton playbook--Bill Clinton

once spun a third place showing as a win. This is how you play the game--lower expectations, take what you get, spin it as a win or call yourself the Comeback Kid.

[restorefreedom]

33. yes, any win will help

but if they split delegstes based on vote, every delegate will help, esp as this goes along.

a win for bernie will be a win, but leave it to hillary to try and spin it as him losing ground

[newfie11]

8. Don't believe it!

[WI_DEM]

10. You're right I fully expect that Bernie will win NH

but the closer it is the better it is for Hillary in a state that almost everybody has conceded to
Bernie.

[TwilightGardener]

14. Who conceded a state that Hillary won in 2008 to Bernie? Nobody's conceded anything.

She's the frontrunner, I expect her to close the gap.

[stonecutter357]

9. K&R!

[firebrand80]

11. 3 more fourth quarter touchdowns

and we've got ourselves a ballgame.

[Ken Burch]

36. Sad that you back a cold, dismissive centrist, but that's your call.

You don't need to settle for the lesser evil, you know.

This isn't a right-wing country.

[TwilightGardener]

13. I think it may be close. But I think Bernie can pull it off.

[LexVegas]

16. If she can get to within single digits, we can call it a "virtual tie". nt

[TwilightGardener]

18. Well, no. If she can get within one percent or less, you can call it a virtual tie.

Otherwise it's a loss.

[SidDithers]

17. DU rec...nt

Sid

[livetohike]

27. That will narrow further after tonight's debate. Can't wait! n/t

😊

[Iliyah]

29. Its going to tighten up.

Its going to be fun!