2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumUMass Lowell Tracking Poll: Sanders -3; Clinton +4 since Tuesday
I recall that "campaign meltdown" was popular in Iowa...
joshcryer
(62,271 posts)Assume for the sake of argument that the +6 bump was due to Iowa and Clinton can pull another 12 points in the 5 days between now and the primary (being very generous to the ground game). She'd still lose by ten points. Highly unrealistic she takes NH.
brooklynite
(94,581 posts)...she just has to lower Sanders' margin enough that his win isn't as dramatic.
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)joshcryer
(62,271 posts)It's when people go to sleep waiting for results that they consider it a wash (and whoever is finally "decided" doesn't get much of a bump from it).
cali
(114,904 posts)Hilly's win in Iowa was a great victory but if Bernie doesn't win by 30 in New Hampshire, it's a victory for her.
And no, I do not respect her.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)Bernie pulls from way behind to a virtual tie, but it is meaningless because she "won" by a couple of percentage points.
But all Hillary has to do is lose by 5 or 10 points in NH to "win."
Hoooookay
riversedge
(70,239 posts)Armstead
(47,803 posts)tarheelsunc
(2,117 posts)How do you take that to mean the poster thinks she wins if she doesn't win?
jonestonesusa
(880 posts)TwilightGardener
(46,416 posts)She's even more high-profile now, with SoS under her belt.
riversedge
(70,239 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)riversedge
(70,239 posts)that poster--I did do posters at one time but have been using an old computer and do not have the program on this one.
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)DrDan
(20,411 posts)if she pulled another 12%, it would have to come from somewhere. If all from Bernie's 58%, it could be close.
joshcryer
(62,271 posts)DrDan
(20,411 posts)virtually tied
treestar
(82,383 posts)whenever Bernie gained before, it was a "surge" and it didn't matter that HRC was still way ahead.
SamKnause
(13,107 posts)I was expecting them to fluctuate while both candidates are campaigning
in the state.
riversedge
(70,239 posts)SamKnause
(13,107 posts)KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)movement within the margin of error cannot be described as anything other than a meltdown.
Maybe Hillary can afford to start dating again....with financial services companies.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I also suspect Bernie's numbers are inflated due to Independents who might switch to the Republican primary due to the more "compelling" race among the RW lunatic candidates.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)See the 42nd president and his showing in New Hampshire.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)It will be easy to dismiss a victory by Bernie in East Vermont as long as its not a blowout.
TwilightGardener
(46,416 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)TwilightGardener
(46,416 posts)Amazing how competitive Bernie is without that advantage.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)I need to see the results. I wouldn't rule out an outright Clinton win.
I saw Ted Kennedy close a thirty point gap in the NY primary in a matter of days against Jimmy Carter.
TwilightGardener
(46,416 posts)If she doesn't, you'd have to wonder why they're changing their minds on her this time around.
stonecutter357
(12,697 posts)riversedge
(70,239 posts)Hiller Instinct: 7News/UMass Lowell New Hampshire tracking poll day 4
Posted: Feb 04, 2016 5:50 AM CST
Updated: Feb 04, 2016 5:50 AM CST
Reported by Andy Hiller
Politics in New Hampshire
MANCHESTER, N.H. (WHDH) -
It's not an earthquake, yet...But the political ground in New Hampshire is moving.
We're seeing more of Iowa's impact, and the war of words underway here.
Hillary Clinton is coming back; and Marco Rubio is coming up.
.........................................
In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton can start thinking about a comeback, and Bernie Sanders is coming down.
Sanders still has a significant lead over Clinton-- 58% to 36%-- a 22 point margin.
But look at the direction of the tracks: Sanders is down three and Clinton is up four, our biggest single gain since we started this poll.
Related: Clinton defends progressive record against Sanders critique
You see the trends, and so will the candidates.
They're good for Rubio and Clinton... and not very good for anyone else.
PotatoChip
(3,186 posts)This is what 'The Hill" says about it:
Sanders's NH lead at 33 points after Iowa caucuses
Bernie Sanders has over double the voter support of Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, according to a new poll.
Sanders leads the Democratic presidential front-runner by 33 points among registered Democrats in the University of Massachusetts-Lowell/7 News survey released Wednesday. He takes 63 percent in the Granite State, contrasted with 30 percent for Clinton in results unchanged from the pollsters' previous survey.
Just 19 percent could change their mind about the Vermont lawmaker, while 25 percent admitted that may rethink the former secretary of State.
UMass-Lowell/7 News conducted its latest survey of 415 Democratic-leaning voters in New Hampshire via cell and landline telephone interviews from Jan. 31Feb. 2. It has a 5.38 percent margin of error.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/268008-sanders-leads-clinton-by-33-in-nh-after-iowa
Here is a link to the poll itself:
http://www.uml.edu/docs/2-3%20TOPLINE%20-%20UMassLowell-7NEWS%20NH%20PRIMARY_tcm18-230574.pdf
mcar
(42,334 posts)PotatoChip
(3,186 posts)mcar
(42,334 posts)I don't think there's time for HRC to take the lead but closing the gap would sure change the media narrative, wouldn't it?
TwilightGardener
(46,416 posts)PotatoChip
(3,186 posts)even though it's looking great for Bernie right now based on the OP's poll.
But yes, I agree the gap will probably close a little bit. After all, NH is pretty conservative for a NE state, and she's got Vermont Gov. Peter Shumlin with his NRA rating of A (or A+ depending on the year) helping her campaign there.
https://votesmart.org/candidate/evaluations/5276/peter-shumlin/37#.VrN-b1UrLnB
December 28, 2015
Democratic -229,202 (26.2%)
Republican -260,896 (29.8%)
Undeclared -383,834 (43.9%)
------------------------------------------
Total -873,932
http://sos.nh.gov/NamesHistory.aspx
TwilightGardener
(46,416 posts)Or at least make it very, very close.