ABC-Wash Post Poll: Obama leads by 2 overall, but by 11 in swing states

[WI_DEM]

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows the presidential race is unmoved from early September, with President Obama leading Mitt Romney by two points among likely voters, 49% to 47%.

But across the swing states, Obama leads among likely voters by a much larger margin, 52% to 41%, paralleling Obama's advantages in recent Washington Post polls in Florida, Ohio and Virginia.

Also interesting: Voters now think Obama will prevail on November 6 by a 32 point margin, 63% to 31%.
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/01/tight_race_except_in_the_swing_states.html

[TroyD]

1. I notice that point is getting lost in the 'Tight Race' headline

I wonder why that could possibly be?

[Jennicut]

2. Does this mean the people polled in the red states are polling at really

high #'s for Romney? They must be. Also, what is being counted as a swing state. ABC/Wash Post doesn't list them.

[Indykatie]

3. Given that the Race Will Be Won in the "Swing States" This Tight Race Meme in Polls is Crazy

Why aren't we hearing more about the state of the race based on projected Electoral Vote totals which provides a clearer and truer picture of the election. These national polls are not that valuable. Even without toss ups Obama is already closing in on the 270 threshold in some of the tallies and with leaner states where he is leading thrown in is in the 340 range. I know the media wants and needs a close race for their own financial self interest but the smarter folks know this race is not that close by the EV numbers. The campaigns also want to have us believe it's a really close race to drive turn out.

Jennicut, most organizations include Va, NC, FL, NH, NV, CO and IA as "swing" states. According to the RealClear site if Rommey won them all he would have 273 EVs. That's not just a daunting task it's impossible in my opinion. I don't think the repubs can manage to steal that many states but I worry about FL with all the shenangians going on there.

[Indykatie]

6. EV Tally from HUff Post Political Site Shows Race Basically Over

According to their tally Rmoney has no path to 270 at this point unless he starts winning states that have been put in the Obama column.


http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

Let's get out the vote!!!

[Jennicut]

8. Thanks for the info.

In my opinion, Romney may only win NC out of those swing states listed. It is the only one close to a tie in the polling.

[Mz Pip]

4. But there are less of them

Other than Texas what highly populated red states are there? CA, IL, NY are all going big for Obama so I really don't get this 2% lead. It doesn't even seem that close in the toss-ups

[TroyD]

5. There aren't a lot of highly populated red states, but . . .

There are a lot of medium-sized red states, and they add up.

Georgia

Tennessee

Louisiana


And many other smaller red states that also add up:

Kentucky

Oklahoma

West Virginia

Utah

Arkansas

Kansas

[cpwm17]

7. Perhaps it's because of the devastating campaign adds against Romney in swing states

I've seen the adds here in Florida run constantly. I don't see how anyone could vote for Romney.

Romney's adds are weak.