2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumA Tie in Iowa Is a Win for Hillary
By Peter Beinart
February 3, 2016
Iowas Democratic base is among the nations whitest and most liberalbut Clinton has a stronger edge almost everywhere else.
It sounds like laughable pro-Hillary spin but its true. For Hillary Clinton, a virtual tie in Iowa was an accomplishment.
Thats because, demographically, the Hawkeye State was her worst nightmare. Among the Democratic Partys three major constituenciesracial minorities, white moderates, and white liberalsHillary has always fared worst among the latter. In 2008, she lost voters in Iowa who described themselves as very liberal (almost all of whom were white) to Barack Obama by 24 points. Among self-described moderates, by contrast, she lost by only two points. This year, she lost very liberal Iowans to Bernie Sanders by 19 points. Among moderates, she beat him by 23 points.
The problem for Hillary is that in the Iowa Democratic Party, white liberals rule. Last summer, FiveThirtyEight created a chart of the states in which white liberals constituted the highest percentage of 2008 Democratic primary or caucus goers. Iowa came in third.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/hillary-clinton-iowa-win/459615/
frylock
(34,825 posts)Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)Good article from the Atlantic.
Beacool
(30,250 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... if he's struggling to remain competitive an ANY of them (and we've already seen the IA results) then it spells DOOM for his campaign to be the Democratic nominee.
I, for one, am exceedingly confident that Bernie will NOT be the nominee of our party.
Go, Hillary!
pandr32
(11,588 posts)And is the first woman to win in Iowa.
Beacool
(30,250 posts)She did better in IA than Bill in 1992 and than she did in 2008. This is another first for Hillary, among many, and for women in general. NJ sends voters a paper ballot listing all the candidates who are running and the voting location (my ward keeps changing locations, it's maddening). I still have the one they sent in 2008. I was soooo proud to see her name among the others.
Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)See OP for example.
Beacool
(30,250 posts)It states clearly why IA was never a propitious state for Hillary to win. Bill didn't win it in 1992. He fared far worse than she did in 2008 because he came a distant fourth. A bit of trivia, in 1992 "uncommitted" came in second place.
Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)Aka: opinions
My interpretation of the "fact" that Hillary won by such a minuscule amount demonstrates that she is a weak candidate unable to GOTV or inspire enthusiasm.
As always, opinions and interpretations differ.
Romulox
(25,960 posts)Beacool
(30,250 posts)43% of them describe themselves as "Socialists". That's the second largest group in the country after VT, NH comes in third place. The remainder states are less liberal to moderate.