Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Beacool

(30,250 posts)
Wed Feb 3, 2016, 01:46 PM Feb 2016

A Tie in Iowa Is a Win for Hillary

By Peter Beinart
February 3, 2016

Iowa’s Democratic base is among the nation’s whitest and most liberal—but Clinton has a stronger edge almost everywhere else.

It sounds like laughable pro-Hillary spin but it’s true. For Hillary Clinton, a virtual tie in Iowa was an accomplishment.

That’s because, demographically, the Hawkeye State was her worst nightmare. Among the Democratic Party’s three major constituencies—racial minorities, white moderates, and white liberals—Hillary has always fared worst among the latter. In 2008, she lost voters in Iowa who described themselves as “very liberal” (almost all of whom were white) to Barack Obama by 24 points. Among self-described “moderates,” by contrast, she lost by only two points. This year, she lost “very liberal” Iowans to Bernie Sanders by 19 points. Among “moderates,” she beat him by 23 points.

The problem for Hillary is that in the Iowa Democratic Party, white liberals rule. Last summer, FiveThirtyEight created a chart of the states in which white liberals constituted the highest percentage of 2008 Democratic primary or caucus goers. Iowa came in third.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/hillary-clinton-iowa-win/459615/

12 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
4. Indeed it was. Iowa, VT and NH are Bernie's strongest states ...
Wed Feb 3, 2016, 01:54 PM
Feb 2016

... if he's struggling to remain competitive an ANY of them (and we've already seen the IA results) then it spells DOOM for his campaign to be the Democratic nominee.

I, for one, am exceedingly confident that Bernie will NOT be the nominee of our party.

Go, Hillary!

Beacool

(30,250 posts)
7. Yes, it was closer than two communion wafers stuck together, but a win is a win.
Wed Feb 3, 2016, 02:02 PM
Feb 2016

She did better in IA than Bill in 1992 and than she did in 2008. This is another first for Hillary, among many, and for women in general. NJ sends voters a paper ballot listing all the candidates who are running and the voting location (my ward keeps changing locations, it's maddening). I still have the one they sent in 2008. I was soooo proud to see her name among the others.

Beacool

(30,250 posts)
8. What facts are not there?
Wed Feb 3, 2016, 04:37 PM
Feb 2016

It states clearly why IA was never a propitious state for Hillary to win. Bill didn't win it in 1992. He fared far worse than she did in 2008 because he came a distant fourth. A bit of trivia, in 1992 "uncommitted" came in second place.

 

Tierra_y_Libertad

(50,414 posts)
12. Which is an interpretation of the "facts".
Wed Feb 3, 2016, 05:00 PM
Feb 2016

Aka: opinions

My interpretation of the "fact" that Hillary won by such a minuscule amount demonstrates that she is a weak candidate unable to GOTV or inspire enthusiasm.

As always, opinions and interpretations differ.

Beacool

(30,250 posts)
10. Yes, but as the articles states, among Democrats it's very liberal.
Wed Feb 3, 2016, 04:49 PM
Feb 2016

43% of them describe themselves as "Socialists". That's the second largest group in the country after VT, NH comes in third place. The remainder states are less liberal to moderate.

Romulox

(25,960 posts)
11. Obviously it's not terribly liberal, since its graying population went with the center-right Clinton.
Wed Feb 3, 2016, 04:50 PM
Feb 2016
Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»A Tie in Iowa Is a Win fo...