PPP: OHIO (Obama +4)

[TroyD]

Obama up 49-45 on our new OH poll, down slightly from 50-45 3 weeks ago. Obama certainly favorite but silly to think Romney CAN'T win there

Obama's approval in Ohio is under water at 48/49 and he's down 42-41 to Romney with independents

72% of Republicans in Ohio think pollsters are intentionally skewing their surveys to help Obama to only 14% who don't.

Those numbers in Ohio make it clear the poll skewing conspiracy theorists aren't a fringe within the GOP- they're pretty much the whole GOP

Should have the full Ohio poll up a little bit after 8

https://twitter.com/ppppolls

[bigdarryl]

1. I know PPP is good but COME THE FUCK ON!!!!

So if its in the margin of error than I guess these idiot rethugs thinking the polls are rigged will like this poll.How the fuck can you have a poll out JUST tonight saying Obama is up by 9 points in the state http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/30/ohio-presidential-polls_n_1927109.html and another poll coming out the same night saying its only a four point race

[Jennicut]

6. bigdarryl, PPP is Dem leaning but like Rasmussen it is a robocaller.

Columbus Dispatch probably reaches live people. It can make a slight difference sometimes, per Nate Silver. I wouldn't worry too much about it. Obama is around a 5 point average lead in Ohio which does not look huge but is about right on with 2008. The final #'s were 51.5% Obama to 46.9% for McCain.

[TroyD]

10. Columbus Dispatch was done through mail, I think n/t

[Jennicut]

13. You are correct. Just looked them up online.

Wonder why the differences in #'s?
I think Washington Post and CBS/Quinnipiac/NYT were live caller polls and they had Obama at 8% and 10%.

[Blue Yorker]

17. Does PPP poll cell phones?

Or not?

[oswaldactedalone]

2. Different polls with different methodology n/t

[WI_DEM]

3. It's pretty comparable to their last poll. Advantage Obama.

And this despite Romney campaigning most of last week in Ohio.

[JNelson6563]

4. If Ohio goes red

Michigan will look upon it with ever more scorn and we'll all do a lot of pointing and laughing at our neighbor.

Julie

[bigdarryl]

5. With all the voter suppression in that state if its four points it can be STOLEN

[Mr.Turnip]

7. basically the same as the last PPP Ohio poll.

Obama dropped 1 but Romney is just stuck at 45.

[WI_DEM]

8. PPP's final Ohio poll in 2008 gave Obama a 2-point lead. He won by nearly 5.

[aaaaaa5a]

9. PPP is not a dem leaning poll. They are very accurate and non biased.

This poll should prove that. (Although there are plenty of other examples.)


On a good side. Who would have thought a year ago that people would consider it a down day because two polls from reliable pollsters were released on Ohio. And the results were Obama +4 and Obama +9.


We got spoiled real fast.

[Dawson Leery]

11. This is good. PPP uses a conservative model (understating Democratic voters).

Other polls have shown Obama up by 10. His lead is somewhere between the two.

[TroyD]

12. Full results

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/09/obama-up-4-in-ohio.html

[Mr.Turnip]

20. Some pretty good numbers outside of the toplines.

nearly tied with both Whites and Seniors.

[smorkingapple]

14. They robopoll so they miss out on cellphone only folks.

This is a good sign. I think they understate Obama's strength in the state. Try not to get too high or low on one poll or the other, analyze in aggregate.

[smorkingapple]

15. Interesting tidbit from crosstabs

30 to 45 age group went for Romney. Didn't expect that.

[RBInMaine]

16. Other polls just released have Obama up much higher. PPP is not PPPerfect by any means.

[TroyD]

18. True

And Tom Jensen is getting very snarky on Twitter when questioned about it.