Will New Hampshire give boost to Bernie Sanders' campaign?

[SecularMotion]

Nashua, N.H., is a bit more than 1,300 miles from Des Moines, Iowa. Over the days between the just-completed caucuses in Iowa and the upcoming primaries in New Hampshire, presidential candidates out along the campaign trail in the Granite State are likely to feel it's all of that, and more. Because New Hampshire isn't Iowa. At all.

One example: No candidate can expect to fare well in the Iowa caucuses without appealing to religiously affiliated voters. Not so much in New Hampshire, listed by the Gallup polling organization as the second-least-religious state (after neighboring Vermont) in the nation.

The New Hampshire of today is home to conservatives and liberals and libertarians (and libertarian-leaning liberals). It's got a great number of transplanted Massachusetts residents now living in the state's urban south. And voters in the state take seriously the role they play in picking presidents.

After Tuesday's Republican primary, it's likely that the still-outsized field will soon enough be significantly narrowed. Those who finish far, far out of the running will have little reason to go on – and even less money. On the Democratic side, however, where there are just two candidates still remaining, the story is entirely different.

http://www.masslive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2016/02/will_new_hampshire_give_boost.html

[kennetha]

1. you mean when he loses?

I don't think he'll get a boost.

[NowSam]

3. Do you really believe Bernie will lose NH?

I don't see how. He is up by 30% so unless there is a Diebold Flip it is impossible. My opinion of course.

[morningfog]

7. Is that sarcasm or are you that uninformed?

[kennetha]

8. guess

but with a town hall and a debate back to back, you never know.

[book_worm]

2. A win is a win, but not so sure he will get a huge boost

from winning NH which is a neighboring state in states like SC, NV and Texas. It might help in Maine.

[BlueCaliDem]

4. YES!

And then Nevada and South Carolina will make the Sanders campaign crash for good.

[peacebird]

5. Iowa certainly gave him a boost! $3 million dollars of extra campaign cash in one day!

[hoosierlib]

6. Depends upon the size of the win...

It's all about expectations...current polling average has Bernie by 17.5%.

I see four possible scenarios;

1)The margin of victory is more than 20%; SBS gets big headlines and a real look from voters...tusnami of cash ensues...SC is in play (i.e. polls tighten to within the margin of error)

2) The margin of victory is between 10% and 20%; SBS meets expectations and the HRC campaign can realistically push the "he's a popular neighboring state politician and we did our best"...SBS still gets big $$$, but not as much...SC tightens but still a 10 point lead by HRC...

3) The margin of victory is below 10%; SBS underperforms...HRC still has it..there is an influx of cash similar to Iowa...a bump in SC, but SC remians uncompetitive...

4) Bernie loses; Myself and fellow "Bernie Bros" across the nation, castrate ourselves and start a write-in campaign

If Bernie has any chance to win the nomination, he needs the first scenario to play out...

[HassleCat]

9. Of course, but will it be enough?

The close finish in Iowa was good, and he has some momentum for New Hampshire, which he was forecast to win anyway. But then comes South Carolina, which is in the south. The name of the state even has "south" in it. Sanders has to finish within ten or fifteen points of Clinton if he expects to retain any momentum. And he might. Clinton s banking heavily, very heavily, on the black vote. It's getting to the point where it might become divisive and cause a black/white rift within the party. Racial politics are dangerous.