when calculating what they need in each state to have a majority of delegates at the national convention.
As they look at each state, they set up a minimum goal they believe they'll need in that state to achieve that majority.
There are some tables of these estimates out there on the Internet, created by election observers. It all indicates that some people are actually looking at the realities of delegate counts, rather than results in individual states. That's how I look at presidential primaries, as well.
For each state, I look at the number of delegates that state sends to the convention, and then use polling results to estimate how many delegates each candidate is likely to win. As more polls come in closer to the date of a state's caucuses or primaries, I adjust those numbers according to changes in polling.
The whole delegate target thing is imprecise, at best, but it can give you an idea of the likelihood of any candidate for President actually getting the nomination. It's a strategy candidates and serious election followers use. It's pretty effective, but takes a lot of work and updating.
Right now, my table shows Hillary far ahead of Bernie in eventual delegate count. As more primaries or other primary events occur, the table will begin to reflect actual results, rather than estimates. At some point, a majority will be reached by one of the candidates. I expect that to happen by mid-April.
Here's a link to the table with Hillary's target in Iowa at 13:
http://cookpolitical.com/story/9179
Read the entire story at that link, though, to understand what the table really means.
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