Hillary banking on minority support to win on Super Tuesday

[book_worm]

After eking out a victory in Iowa before an anticipated loss in New Hampshire next week, Hillary Clinton’s campaign is banking on their minority support in the Super Tuesday states to help secure the nomination, according to a memo Clinton’s campaign manager sent to top donors Tuesday outlining the “path forward” after the Iowa caucuses.

“The voters of New Hampshire have a history of supporting candidates from New England. So it’s not surprising that Sanders maintains and double-digits lead in the polls there,” Robby Mook wrote in the memo obtained by ABC News, referring to the Vermont senator's double-digit lead in the Granite State.

“After New Hampshire, the races becomes considerably more challenging for Bernie Sanders as the contest moves to Nevada and South Carolina, states with electorates that strongly favor Hillary,” he added.

Mook noted that Clinton won a majority of the women, union members and minority voters in Iowa, demographics “critical towards winning the Democratic nomination."

He pointed out that seven of the 11 March 1 Super Tuesday states have large minority populations, specifically citing Alabama, Georgia and Texas as states that “are expected to see majority-minority turnouts.”
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hillary-clinton-banking-minority-support-super-tuesday-memo/story?id=36681487

[beachbum bob]

1. hillary has grown up[ support, women support, hispanic support and other minority support

why she'll win in the states that count in the primaries and in the general election....nothing unusual here

[frazzled]

2. Why even call them minority voters?

African Americans, women, Latinos are all voters, equal to every other voter. Why must we measure everyone else against the standard of the white male? (White males aren't even a majority in this nation anyway, yet they persist in being held up as the standard against which all else is defined).

I understand politics are politics, and analysts need rubrics to earn their paychecks. But let's all remember that we live by one person-one vote in this country. I'm tired of carving us up into little cadres. It's divisive, in the end.

[NCTraveler]

7. "Why even call them minority voters?"

They are not equal to every voter if one looks at reality. They are an oppressed voting block who are also directly oppressed by the voting system itself. I hope no campaign anytime soon, outside of republicans, attempts to remove the distinction. It is extremely important.

There is not one single thing that is divisive about it unless one is inclined to see it that way to start.

[frazzled]

9. I disagree

Seeing these voters as "other" is precisely what allows them to be oppressed, dismissed, and taken advantage of. In the popular vision of the system, there are "voters" and then there are "minority voters." It's a distinction that chafes. Every citizen counts, whatever gender, color, or ethnicity.

[NCTraveler]

10. "Seeing these voters as "other" is precisely what allows them to be oppressed, dismissed, and taken"

I can't get there. They are not seen as "other" and polls aren't closed with long lines in AA neighborhoods because of the "other" whatever.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. The denizens of our august internet community...

Mook noted that Clinton won a majority of the women, union members and minority voters in Iowa, demographics “critical towards winning the Democratic nomination."

Some of the denizens of our august internet community informed Hillary Clinton supporters on this board that rank and file union members universally loathe Hillary Clinton

[Renew Deal]

4. Sanders should be going all out in NV

Because if he wins in NH, I think he's got a decent shot in NV. A win there makes him much more credible going into SC.

[cali]

8. I think he is.

This is from almost a month ago, but reportedly, the Clinton campaign idled in Nevada and elsewhere, concentrating the vast majority of their resources in Iowa.

<snip>
He has now hired almost twice the number of staffers on the ground in Nevada — 40 to Clinton's 22, as of July. The campaign would not provide an updated number of paid staffers on the ground. And he has opened nine field offices across the state compared to Clinton’s six (the campaign said it is opening its seventh office, in Elko, on Thursday).

Sanders also has invested heavily in ad buys on English- and Spanish-language television and radio, spending $767,539 to date compared with Clinton's recent $162,490 ad buy.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-nevada-217432#ixzz3z7rS8gX0

[thereismore]

12. Great news! A piece of information in a sea of opinion on DU. Thank you. nt

[morningfog]

5. It may be a question of turnout. Will Bernie get more under 35 to turnout

than Hillary gets minorities?

Bernie is supported 60-70 by those under 35, including women and minorities. Hillary leads with minorities, generally. Who will win the demographic turnout?

NV and SC may give us clues as to how this will play out on Super Tuesday.

[Tanuki]

6. The latest poll here in Tennessee shows Hillary ahead by about a 3 to 1 ratio. eom

[KamaAina]

11. I never thought I'd live to see the day

when voters of color dragged the Dem party to the right.

[kath]

14. yeah, really. WTF, indeed.

[DemocraticSocialist8]

13. I know this Thread is About Super Tuesday, but the Most Recent Polls from SC Leave Me Wondering...

I just looked at the two most recent SC polls and a few things jumped out at me.

CBS/YouGov Poll...Clinton 60% - Sanders 38%

1. 64% of the people polled were 45 or older...versus 36% being 45 or younger with a mere 12% being between 18-29 which is Bernie's strongest voter bloc by far. So just based on age, this recent poll is slighted towards Clinton anyway who clearly has the older vote locked down.

2. Most of the people polled either called themselves Moderates or Moderate-Conservatives...so liberals were VERY under-represented in the poll.

3. A WHOOPING 73% polled were WHITE and we know the Democratic primary versus 25% Black and 66% of the people polled said they either had little college education or none at all.

4. When you look at the percentage breakdown of people who are asked who their first choice is you see that there is NO DATA for 18-29 year olds. When it comes to people aged 30-44 it's about even between Bernie and Hillary but it's when you look at her support for those over the age of 45 again that her lopsided support comes in.

CONCLUSION on CBS/YouGov Poll....

Even factoring in her lopsided support among Blacks, looking at the ages that were polled...one can only assume most of her Black support is coming from older Black Democrats. People who are likely more conservative and have a positive view of the 90's and the Clinton years. YOUNG BLACK LIBERAL VOTERS WERE GREATLY UNDER-REPRESENTED IN THIS POLL!!!

This is extremely important because it was young, Black millennial voters that helped propel Obama in 2008 and helped maintain his Presidency in 2012.

NBC/Marist Poll...Clinton 64% - Sanders 27%

1. This poll was even worse than the CBS/YouGov poll. There is no racial and age breakdown shown in the poll. One can only assume that like the one above, those polled were likely older and conservative which is NOT Bernie Sanders' demographic.

OVERALL CONCLUSION

The 3rd oldest poll after the two above (both done in late January) is another YouGov poll which is BASICALLY identical in every way to the one I reviewed above. The key takeaway is the under-estimation of the turnout from young, Black and even White liberal voters. The polls are heavily slanted towards conservative/moderate Democrats and conservative/moderate Republicans. I don't think we'll ever see a poll that factors in young Black men and women. I'm not going to say it's a conspiracy or anything but if they turn out to vote South Carolina will be a LOT closer than the polling indicates. I still think there are things Bernie can do to appeal to Black voters...especially young Black voters, but time is running out. I know he's going on his HBCU tour and that has already started I believe. I am a young (well 28 lol) Black liberal voter and I have NO PLAN to vote for Hillary Clinton unless I absolutely have to in order to prevent Trump from winning smh. However my heart is with Bernie as I assume is the case for most Black voters under the age of 30. South Carolina is VERY winnable with turnout from YOUNG, BLACK MILLENNIAL VOTERS!!! The same ones that came to Barack Obama's aide.