2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHillary Clinton's General Election Campaign Strategy LEAKED!
A lot of Democrats have been concerned about Clinton's general election campaign strategy because she has consistently overestimated her own appeal in the Democratic primary election:
This is a very important demographic because young Democratic voters turn out when they are excited about the Democratic candidate and do not turnout in nearly as high numbers when they are not as enthusiastic about the candidate, and this often correlates to a Democratic win in a non-incumbent election with high younger voter turnout and a Democratic loss in non-incumbent races in the absence of such enthusiasm:
In this context, the Clinton campaign has caused many Democrats great concern. This concern has grown as Clinton first promised a 50 state sweep in the race for the nomination, and then began to promise a 49 state win when her likeability polling plummeted in New Hampshire, and now she is promising that Iowa and New Hampshire are "exceptional" states and she'll perform better in the latter 48 state races.
The Clinton campaign has developed a general election strategy to combat these weaknesses in her candidacy, and the memo setting forth her two-part strategy has been leaked by insiders within her campaign:
PART 1
Battle Trump (or Cruz or Rubio) to a virtual tie in the general election.
PART 2
Win all coin tosses to decide tied elections.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)in total, even on your chart. The real question is how many Independents who might vote for a Republican can she garner. I suspect it is more than Sanders.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Coin tosses for races too close to call?
For the one candidate with almost a better chance of becoming president than all the rest of the candidates put together? Hillary's position is everyone else's wet dream.
This phony "memo" is just more right-wing garbage copied here by servants of the GOP.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)oddly noteworthy that Clinton won them all.
Like the Dean Scream, the coin toss is not a thing that effected the ultimate assignment on national delegates, but it has nevertheless caught the public's attention and it plays into the perception that this was an historically close race where Clinton fell far short of expectations and yet Clinton is nevertheless unconvincingly trying to sell this under-performance as a win.
The contrast between the coin toss (a great metaphore of the closeness) and the Clinton campaign's strained efforts to oversell the results in Iowa reinforce the already embedded perception that Clinton will say or do anything to boost herself. This plays into people's distrust of her and that is why is it a bigger issue than the national delegate assignment.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)The strange thing is, the coin toss might have been a good metaphor for the closeness of the Iowa caucus, but thanks to furious Bernie supporters on the internet, now it has become a symbol of the conspiracy theories that Bernie fans have been trotting out throughout the primary.
The world had already taken notice of the "Bernie Bro" factor, with anyone who criticized Bernie, even strong progressives like Paul Krugman, getting smeared for daring to say something not sufficiently laudatory about Bernie and his plans. The "Bernie Bros" were clearly expecting a Bernie win -- witness all the premature declarations of victory on DU, for example, for the past two weeks -- and when that didn't happen, they resorted to "the fix is in."
The fact that Hillary won, particularly in a state so favorable demographically to Bernie, matters not because of the delegates. The main benefit is that it stops in its tracks the "2008 all over again" narrative that the media was dying to push. In principle, a narrow loss could have accomplished that just as well as a narrow victory, since in 2008 Hillary was third by a distance, but with her coming out on top, the "2008" story is pretty much over.
TheBlackAdder
(28,209 posts)speaktruthtopower
(800 posts)Is her advantage among POC because they like her or they distrust Sanders? Puzzling because his policies are more economically leveling.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)oasis
(49,389 posts)The GOP congress is not about to act as Bernie's Mardi Gras float by giving him a ride as
he tosses free stuff to the cheering crowd.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)bringing in more younger voters and more of those who have lost faith in the establishment because the see the establishment as ultimately loyal to a rigged system than loyal to voters like them so Sanders won't have to bow to a Republican congress.
Clinton's model is "I'll be there to veto all the Republican laws that Paul Ryan sends me."
Sanders' model is "I'll fight to change the electorate so the majority rules again."
Clinton's message is "hey, I'm better than Trump."
Sanders' message is "hey, we're better than a nation who would elect Trump."
oasis
(49,389 posts)Tea party to Democratic socialists. That's one helluva vision.
jillan
(39,451 posts)as they try to investigate her for Benghazi one more time. Or try to throw her in jail over her emails.
Pop your bubble, please & take a look at the real world.
oasis
(49,389 posts)So we'll both just have to sweat out your "Bengazi fantasy".
sadoldgirl
(3,431 posts)Congrats to your sweat out then.
oasis
(49,389 posts)chance to beat the GOP. A few Bernie supporters, deep down inside, believe it as well.
Admiral Loinpresser
(3,859 posts)NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)Not all Sanders supporters were on board with logogate. I mean who really wanted to make people think they were truly confused by her logo? That would just be embarrassing. I bet that all of those confused by the coin flip are the exact same people confused by Clintons logo.
Iggy Knorr
(247 posts)Is that a word?
It's certainly a thing...
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)Ferd Berfel
(3,687 posts)and inspire republicans to come out just to vote against her, and we will loose all branches of Government