Hillary won Iowa and it was all due to non-white voters.

[JaneyVee]

Who broke for Hillary +25. Her minority support (even in Iowa!) will continue to propel her to National victory.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/02/02/iowas-small-number-of-nonwhite-voters-underscores-a-big-problem-for-sanders/

[Punkingal]

1. All?

[JaneyVee]

20. Tight race, that gap surely put her over.

[DanTex]

2. Doesn't matter. All that matters is what 19-22 year olds with a partial college education and

names beginning with the letters A-K think.

[JaneyVee]

10. And pay no taxes.

One of the dumbest/hilarious things I saw on msnbc was some college berniebro caucus goer screaming at some girl who switched to hillary about tax policy.

[Warren DeMontague]

13. GET OFF MY LAWN

[JaneyVee]

21. I'm a millennial.

[Warren DeMontague]

26. It must be very frustrating to you, then, to see where most people your age sit on all this.

Although i dont know, NYC is a bit of a bubble. (To say the least)

You should check out the rest of this great nation sometime!

[JaneyVee]

29. LOL.

Sure, after I finish flying over 30k miles this year all around the globe for my job maybe I'll swing by some of the states to check them out. http://m.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/02/it-turns-out-millennials-hillary-clinton-just-fine

[Warren DeMontague]

33. Well maybe when you get west of the mississippi you may notice some things

That the beltway and manhattan conventional wisdom yubnubs are conveniently clueless about.

[AtomicKitten]

40. Bernie took 84% of under 30 women.

https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/694615444209139712

[Glamrock]

42. That chart...

Also shows Hillary with the 2nd highest net negative (after Trump). And a higher net negative number than her net positive.

[beam me up scottie]

45. WHITE PEEPLES!!!

I think that's today's words of the day.

[Warren DeMontague]

3. So what is her probelm with Millennials?

Or are we going to continue to deny there is a problem.

[JaneyVee]

5. What is Bernie's problem with non-millenials?

[Warren DeMontague]

11. He also won in the under 34 age grouping, which cuts into Gen X.

I realize that the "mentalist" and downton abbey viewership, aol.com email address demographic is the only one that matters, but come on.

The bottom line here is, given that Hillary's inevitability, "electabilty" and both political chops and supposed strength as a candate are floated as CORE rationalizations (as opposed to, say, bold and concrete policy proposals) to support her, certainly a little bit of self examination might be warranted on the part of her supporters as to what precisely the fucking problem is, here.

I am sure that in the inner circles of her campaign, unlike the islands of phony bravado and denial here on DU, exactly that is taking place.

And if Sanders actually does as poorly with minority voters as we've been assured he will in coming weeks, certainly those questions will be legitimate on his end as well.

[JaneyVee]

16. She's currently beating every Repub in newest polls.

No candidate is going to make everyone happy.

[Warren DeMontague]

24. The same polls which dont mean anything when sanders is winning them, huh?

Last week he was ahead in those matchups.

Perhaps rather than engaging in the time-honored tradition of insulting young voters, debbie wasserman schultz style, the clinton campaign could actually LISTEN to them.

I thought Hillary was all about "listening".

[JaneyVee]

31. Right, but Bernie has had zero attack ads his way...

Contrast that with republicans throwing the kitchen sink at Hillary and she's still winning.

[Warren DeMontague]

35. The same crap was said about Obama in '08- he hadn't been "vetted"

Hell, we were also told in solemn tones in 2004 that John Kerry's record as a war hero would render him immune to Karl Rove's attacks.

Remember?

All this stuff about Hillary's supposed imperviousness- she hasnt won a national election any more than Sanders has. It is speculation, and it is equally valid to suggest that her baggage is a bug, not a feature.

[Autumn]

4. Can she win the White House without millennials?

Cause she won't get them.

[JaneyVee]

7. I'm sorry, what were you saying?

http://m.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/02/it-turns-out-millennials-hillary-clinton-just-fine

[Autumn]

9. .

Welcome back, you were missed ...

[Warren DeMontague]

18. ARE YOU TRYING TO TELL ME THIS GUY DOESNT HAVE A FINGER ON THE PULSE OF THE YOUTH

He positively exudes hipness from his very lapels.

[8 track mind]

23. LOL n/t

[Autumn]

28. Oh he exudes...

something.

[AtomicKitten]

37. Sanders 84%-Clinton 14%-Under 30 women.

https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/694615444209139712

[JonLeibowitz]

52. Is that true? I've had difficulty backing it up with anything more substantial, i.e. non twitter

The numbers at the NYT look close, but not identical.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/02/01/us/elections/iowa-democrat-poll.html

[AtomicKitten]

58. It was entrance polling.

[JonLeibowitz]

59. I know, but CNN's entrance polling matches those numbers for the aggregate (Not women)

See: http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ia/Dem

[AtomicKitten]

60. I guess it's his analysis of the entrance polling done for CNN.

He tweeted the info.

[JonLeibowitz]

61. Yeah probably. Some of the news guys have breakdowns not officially released. n/t

[jeff47]

38. Doesn't it suck when the same poll you cite in the OP contradicts you?

Or are we supposed to be dumb enough to think the only thing in that poll was non-white voters?

Oh, your poll also has Clinton winning by a lot more than 0.2%.

[beachbumbob]

6. The same reason why Hillary will win in November....

[kcjohn1]

8. According to that poll

Sanders lost 55-45, which is inaccurate. POC were such a small minority, what was the margin of error? Who is to say the spread was off by 10, thus only losing by 15? Plus, what is the characteristics of those non white voters? Seems like there is huge gap in age, with 65+ overwhelming voting for Clinton vs those under.

Must be sad if the whole campaign is left with we will win POC and not really lay the case why. Why is Clinton trying to drive wedge between POC and liberal base of the democratic party?

[JaneyVee]

12. Now you're negatively blaming Hillary because minorities like her better?

Mansplain it to me bro!

[kath]

47. "Negatively blaming"?

Is there positive blaming?

[ISUGRADIA]

32. Good question

It would be nice of the press actually understood statistics. It looks like the sample size for Democratic caucus goers was about 1660.

That would mean minority voters were about 166 or so. With that small subgroup sample size the margin of error would be about 8%. Which means that Clinton would still have a lead beyond the margin of error, but the actual margin could be much closer than 25 points.

[KingCharlemagne]

14. Playing the race card AND race baiting all in one OP. Now, that's the classiness that

will unify the party under the Weathervane.

[Live and Learn]

17. Yep. Divisiveness is what they have. Got to play it up. nt

[beam me up scottie]

22. I've never seen the word "white" posted so many times in one day.

Apparently the memo went out, have to keep discouraging minorities and convincing them that only pasty faced millenial bros like Bernie.

[uponit7771]

27. "race card" is radicalizing mere facts

[PowerToThePeople]

46. That's our lovely

3rd way DU team for you.

Trashing this turd OP.

[Live and Learn]

15. So nice to see you care about POC. Be really nice if you wanted to give them health care,

jobs, economic equality, a decent minimum wage, free education and an end to their ridiculous rates of incarceration too.

[DamnYankeeInHouston]

36. Perfectly stated. Where's the "like" button for replies?

[Gothmog]

19. The Iowa electorate was overwhelmingly white but among those who weren't, Clinton won handily

This is from the Iowa caucuses last night http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/2/2/1478778/-The-Iowa-electorate-was-overwhelmingly-white-but-of-those-who-weren-t-Clinton-won-handily

From the Iowa entrance polls:

WHITE NON-WHITE
CLINTON 49 58
SANDERS 46 34
OMALLEY 2 2

The non-white sample was 150 out of 1,660, so while unfortunately small, the 24-point gap is still outside the margin of error. That sample size was also too small to break out African Americans, Latinos, and Asians, so we don’t have granularity. Also unfortunately, New Hampshire won’t provide greater insight next week, so this is all we have to work with. (I included Martin O’Malley because half of his meager support came from non-whites, probably Latinos happy with his strong defense of immigrant rights.)

In any case, look at this from FiveThirtyEight (click on link for full chart):

?1454443272

[uponit7771]

25. Somewhere a bunch of Dynamite went BOOM!!!

[Jarqui]

30. 28% turn out for 65+ that Clinton dominated +43

probably was more fruitful to padding her numbers.

[uponit7771]

34. Red Herring, doesn't matter... in IA Sanders numbers among PoC are bad... he's not

... attracting the very people he claims his revolution is for because his marginalization of one of the "others"

[Jarqui]

41. I'm not sure that's all of it. That could well be part of it. Some analysis suggests that

part of his problem is that a larger number of minorities do not believe he can win. There are a bunch of people who seem to like Bernie but go with Clinton because they think she can win and he can't. (the media inevitability thing they've hammered for ages)

Obama went through this. It took Obama a while to get minority support - I'm talking right around Iowa, Dec-Jan it finally started to flow.

That's an important thing about the Iowa result. In three months, Sanders went from down 30 to effectively tie Hillary. That should help him with some that don't think he can win to shift them to "maybe he can". New Hampshire should also help that problem. But it's going to take some time to peel that back. He started later than Obama and had less behind him.

I'm far from convinced that's the only issue. But I do think it is one of the significant ones. We'll find out between now and South Carolina just how much he can improve upon that.

Another factor is: because of these states he's primarily been campaigning in, IA and NH, there are not a lot of minorities. So it's harder for him to build a significant number of minorities to help spread the word via word of mouth because there were so few in those states. I suspect some of it is a chicken and egg thing. Last night's speech and the media finally covering his campaign should help.

Nevada is going to reveal how well he can make inroads with the Latinos. South Carolina should provide something similar with the blacks. If he can't move the needle with the minorities in those places, he's toast. It won't be long before we find out - because we'll either start to see it in the polling the week before the votes or we won't.

I do not think it will catch on as much as it has with the young people but I would think that the minorities who seem to be burdened with more poverty would like a number of his policies, like single payer, or free college tuition, reducing incarcerated minorities (schools rather than jails). And he can tell it credibly because he's fought for it all his life.

I would hope some of the leaders of these minority communities, beyond Killer Mike and Cornel West and others, check Bernie out and sign on. They could help a lot.

[uponit7771]

43. Unnnn, first it was cause we don't know him... then its cause we haven't heard him and now...

... its cause we think he can't?

Come on, his message isn't resonating because at the root of his "bern" the house down mantra is a near disdain for Obama who he has latched onto two people (Bigga and West) who have said some of the most vile things about Obama to express said disdain... without the words coming out of his mouth.

Sanders doesn't need SC to know how he's doing with blacks.... in the state he's spent the most time and resources in he got beat by 25 points with PoC.

How is spending LESS time in SC going to help this?!

I think Sanders marginalizing Hillary's left bonafides relates her more to the marginalized than to the well off

[Jarqui]

49. I think there's definitely more than one thing going on here.

I really like Obama. Always have. It's been a bit prickly lately between the two. They are very different people with different styles and positions on the scale of progressiveness. Always have been - not a lot new there. But I don't get an ugly sense of disdain from Bernie. He got Obama's back a few times on legislation - & helped out. I get the fire in his belly to get these things done - which were not always things Obama wanted or they were things Obama failed to get done (largely due to obstruction).

If Bernie lost badly in Iowa, his campaign would be in real trouble. Sanders spent 94 days in Iowa and New Hampshire. New Hampshire only broke for him recently. He had to spend that time there. With the Iowa result, one more day or one less day could have made a difference so he wasn't there too much.

Now he's spent 17 days in SC but the media have him about 20 minutes on the televised news since May - they blacked him out. So it's pretty tough to make inroads when a national candidate is treated that way. Because of Iowa, hopefully, that's about to change.

I do not have the feeling Sanders is intentionally trying to marginalize anyone. It doesn't strike me as his style. Nor is it something he can afford to do. I'd like to understand more about how you feel this marginalization is happening.

[uponit7771]

53. A good portion of Sanders message is that Hillary isn't left at all.. that's what he's literally ...

... said on some issues at the least along with she'll sell you out to wall street by intimating her taking 1/30th of a yearly salary from the banks will influence her in some way.

Also, that the CURRENT "establishment" has sold dems out vs the current establishment hasn't had shit to work with seeing this congress is so gerrymandered towards the GOP.

That's how he's marginalized Hillary and the "establishment" which includes Obama...

Seeing that PoC politicos in IA didn't turn to Sanders I don't see how in the world PoC politicos in SC are going to see something different..

The people who are going to participate in the primaries are most likely to have access to the internet and agood portion of that direct access...

We, like the PoC in IA, are informed by now

[Jarqui]

55. Have a look at Shawn King's article. He makes a pretty good case.

I think he's right about Hillary. She will sell anyone out. Look at all her flip-flops (about 22 significant ones ..). She and her husband are influenced by Wall Street. A variety of Bill's policies that Hillary supported like the crime bill or welfare reform or broader ones like NAFTA are good examples of who came first. Hillary took money from private prison companies.

I think that case has not only been made but pretty widely accepted. Look at her trustworthy number.

I don't think he's marginalized Obama. He just doesn't agree with him on everything.

If Bernie gets some more minority surrogates going to bat for him and some media coverage to back him up, I think they'll put quite a dent in those numbers over the next couple of weeks.

[Jarqui]

50. Here's someone else saying one part of what I was just saying above

https://newrepublic.com/article/124391/yes-she-can

A Gallup poll in August put her favorable rating among black people at 80 percent. But their calculations are also practical: They think she will win, and more important, that she should win. She waited her turn, the Republicans—even Carson—are impossible, and as Obama’s election proved, black folk are done with symbolic candidacies. Despite the appeal of Bernie Sanders’s economic platform, and his growing sensitivity on race, he is going to lose. They want no part of him.

[Jarqui]

54. This article helps to reinforce some of what I said and goes beyond

Shaun King: Destroying the myth that Bernie Sanders doesn't address race or racism
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/king-bernie-addressed-race-racism-article-1.2518180?cid=bitly

Bernie Sanders, though, is not only willing to address the effects of American racism head on, he is proposing deep systemic reforms that will level this country for generations to come. I don't think he's perfect on race by any means, but I have found him and his core team, which is peopled by men and women of color, to be very responsive and pliable to new ideas and the course corrections of old ones.

The driving force of Bernie's career in public service has been the fight for fairness and equality. To remain free from outside influence and lobbyists, he has become the longest-running Independent congressman in American history. As the senator from the overwhelmingly white state of Vermont, he has not always made issues of race the driving force of his speeches, but I have grown to learn that racial equality has always, since his youth, been a part of why he does what he does. It's why he broke with most of the Democratic Party and endorsed Jesse Jackson for president in 1984 and 1988. It's why he hired a black woman with a heart for reforming the juvenile justice system, Symone Sanders, as his National Press Secretary.

It's why the attorneys for the families of Walter Scott and Trayvon Martin, both victims of racial violence in America, decided to endorse Bernie. It's why Erica Garner, the daughter of police brutality victim Eric Garner, endorsed him.

Without fail, they each said that they actually believed the principles and promises of Bernie Sanders more than any other candidate and that they believe his policies would do more to address the core issues that affect the black community the most.

I agree.

I just quoted the end. The article provides detailed factual examples and quotes on the economy, mass incarceration, police brutality, etc as it affects the black community.

I'll say one thing between this and the previous article I quoted. Bernie can be counted on to do what he says he will do. Hillary can not.

[kath]

48. Thanks for bringing up the fact that in 2008, minority support for Obama was slow in coming. There

,is a good post here (#6, by Jarqui) about that that gives some details: http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511059908#post6

6. There was a discussion on CNN early in 2008 that was

on why Obama wasn't getting more black support in the polls

.... So I tried to look it up ...
http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/10/17/poll.blacks.democrats/
CNN Poll: Black support helps Clinton extend lead
updated 8:54 p.m. EDT, Wed October 17, 2007

and then

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/18/poll.2008/index.html?iref=nextin
Poll: Obama makes big gains among black voters
updated 8:03 a.m. EST, Sat January 19, 2008

"There's been a huge shift among African-American Democrats from Clinton to Obama. African-American Democrats used to be reluctant to support Obama because they didn't think a black man could be elected. Then Obama won Iowa and nearly won New Hampshire. Now they believe," said Bill Schneider, CNN senior political analyst.


If you go dig around the polls that I've been following for months, a very significant factor in Clinton's support over Sanders is they do not think Sanders can win - very similar to Obama's situation. They often like Bernie but they'd kind of followed the media and wrote him off as he disappeared from their TV screens.

If Bernie does well in Iowa and New Hampshire, he's going to get a shift - not just from blacks but from all kinds of folks who were on the fence or unaware of him. I think he's less well known than Obama was at the same point in 2007-8.

If Bernie does well in Iowa and New Hampshire, the media can't ignore him any longer and folks will start to find out what he's about. Like Iowa and New Hampshire, he's going to pull voters into his camp.

Is it going to be like Obama? I have no idea. Probably less if I had to guess but it could be more for all I know. {more at link}

On edit - oops, Jarqui, just realized that the post I quoted was one of yours. It WAS a good one!

[grossproffit]

39. Must be those low information voters...

[url]http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511124788[/url]

[Number23]

44. No EFFING way!! I just saw a video that says the complete opposite and Youtube doesn't lie!1one

Actually, that's not true at all. I didn't watch the video and probably never will. The rec'ing crew told me all I needed to know.

I just posted about this in the AA forum. http://www.democraticunderground.com/118738233

[rbrnmw]

57. ....

[Fearless]

51. In reality with the numbers so tight

A flat tire could have changed the results. Or anything else for that matter. This is just an effort to stick race into it again and it's getting very old. 34% of poc voted for Bernie.

[Rockyj]

56. NO it was actually because of a coin toss!

Minorities (& as for me as a Native American) WE love HIM MORE than Clinton Camp will ever estimate! You are using a Clinton talking point BUT it isn't working!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511126153

[DemocraticWing]

62. 58-34? Remember when Bernie was polling 10% with non-white voters?

Hmm, I seem to remember another group that Sanders once trailed in before eventually rising to be nearly equal with Clinton.

Oh, I know, it was the voters of Iowa!