New Boston Globe poll: Warren (43), Brown (38)

[TroyD]

September 30, 2012

With Elizabeth Warren and Senator Scott Brown preparing for their second debate Monday night, Warren appears to be inching ahead in the highly competitive race for Senate, as Massachusetts Democrats energized by the presidential race begin to fall in line behind her, according to a new Globe poll.

Warren, a Democrat, leads Brown, a Republican, 43 percent to 38 percent, a shift from the Globe’s last poll in May, when Brown held a 2-point lead. But the race remains within either candidate’s grasp, with 18 percent of voters still undecided, said Andrew E. Smith, the Globe’s pollster and the director of the University of New Hampshire ­Survey Center.

This survey is the sixth of eight public polls taken this month that show Warren ahead.

Warren’s lead is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent, meaning a spread of as much as 8 percentage points between the candidates would still statistically count as a dead heat. Still, the survey is sobering for Brown six weeks before the election.

“It’s trending away from Brown,’’ said Smith. “Brown right now is not doing well enough among Democrats to offset the advantage that ­Warren has,” said Smith. “That’s just such a big obstacle to overcome for any Republican candidate” in Massachusetts.

More:

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2012/09/29/elizabeth-warren-appears-inch-ahead-scott-brown-new-globe-poll/4u10XRyC5PmIPCkKsutsnN/story.html

[11cents]

1. Uh-oh. That means Brown will bring out his best arguments at the next debate.

Maybe he'll do a war dance and accuse Warren of taking out-of-state wampum.

[lovemydog]

15. He can mention a reservation.

For a golf trip.
After he loses to Warren.

[Drunken Irishman]

2. That 18% is way high. Essentially, you can't say who's leading with such high undecideds...

I wish they would have pressed those undecideds if they lean one way or another.

[TroyD]

3. 'That 18% is way high.'

It is indeed.

As someone who has posted most of the MA Senate polls here this month and has been following this one closely, I think it's the highest undecided figure I can remember.

The whole article actually seems very cautious about concluding Warren is ahead. (eg. "Elizabeth Warren appears to inch ahead of Scott Brown&quot

I'd say a 5-point lead (and a 7-point swing from the last Globe poll) is actually vaulting ahead, not inching ahead. And even though it's a 5-point lead, they still say it's within the poll's 'margin of error' because the true margin can actually be 8 points?

However, the fact that 6 of 8 polls this month have Warren ahead, and that of the other 2 one of them showed a tie and the one showing Brown came from the conservative Herald, the momentum definitely appears to be with Warren so far.

And this poll was taken in the week after their first debate and the latest Native American blow-up from the Brown camp, so that bodes well for Warren as well.

[Cosmocat]

12. fucking right

that inching thing got my hackles up to.

If the R and D were inversed in this scenario, it would be called SURGING ahead.

That whole 4.4 actually is 8 thing is just sad, and pathetic, and again, would NEVER get cast in relation to an R.

The straight call is that Warren has clearly taking a lead in the race.

[demwing]

17. Warren is ahead, but this poll is nonsense

18% undecided and a MOE of 4.4 = crap poll.

BTW - IF that MOE is accurate, then Warren would have to lead by more than 8.8% to be out of the margin. That's just the way these things work, with all the other things flaky about this poll, it hardly makes sense to complain about the science of statistics.

[fujiyama]

4. A large % of those undecideds will be voting for Obama

I really doubt Brown can peel that many Obama voters away. Since Romney is doing especially poorly in that state, this is a state where Obama will likely pull her across the line.

I think Clinton needs to go to MA and campaign with her. He would be a big help. He certainly helped Kerry in that state in '96 against Weld. From what I've read though that election wasn't nearly this nasty. Brown and his crew are proving themselves to be typical scumbags, emblematic of today's GOP.

[TroyD]

5. Presidential Numbers: Obama leads by 27 points

In the presidential contest, the poll shows President Obama leading former governor Mitt Romney by 27 percentage points in Massachusetts, a 57 percent to 30 percent landslide. If that holds up, Brown will face a strong Democratic headwind that could overwhelm his individual ­efforts as a candidate in the Nov. 6 election.

Of those who said they will vote for Obama, just 9 percent said they also plan to vote for Brown, while 20 percent of Obama voters say they are still undecided in the Senate race, according to the poll.

Romney’s popularity in Massachusetts has plummeted since he won the 2002 governor’s race as a moderate Republican who favored legalized abortion and held other socially liberal stances.

The poll shows 33 percent of respondents view the GOP presidential nominee favorably, compared with 60 percent who viewed him unfavorably, a significant drop since a May poll showed a split among Massachusetts voters on that question. His poor showing in ­national polls could dampen Republican participation in Massachusetts.

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2012/09/29/elizabeth-warren-appears-inch-ahead-scott-brown-new-globe-poll/4u10XRyC5PmIPCkKsutsnN/story.html

[Drunken Irishman]

6. I do like this zinger toward him...

Romney’s popularity in Massachusetts has plummeted since he won the 2002 governor’s race as a moderate Republican who favored legalized abortion and held other socially liberal stances.

[TroyD]

7. Romney going down in MA could also take Brown with him

That should be another factor in Warren's favor.

[Jennicut]

16. Mittens had to pretend he was an old New England moderate Repub to win there.

And then he went hard right to win the primaries this year. Who they hell knows what his true beliefs are. But I do know that Mass pretty much hates him.

[RBInMaine]

22. It shows though that Brown as an INCUMBENT at this late stage is only managing 38% solid. NOT GOOD !

It means MOMENTUM is with and that MANY of those who were supporting Brown before are re-thinking things bigtime. It is very possible given the dynamics of this that up to 18% are undecided. Whomever does better with persuasion in the next two weeks will swing enough Indies to win. It is the Indies who will truly decide this. If Warren can nail down her Dem base very well including getting less frequent Dems to the polls and make enough inroads with the Indies, especially with Indy women, she will beat Scott Brown. She needs to GLUE HIM HARD TO THE REPUBLICANS AND DESTROY HIS IMAGE AS AN "INDEPENDENT MODERATE". SHE NEEDS TO KEEP POUNDING ON HIS REPUBLICAN VOTING RECORD IN THE SENATE. SHE NEEDS TO KEEP POUNDING HIM ON HIS RIGHT WING OUT OF STATE FUNDRAISING. SHE NEEDS TO KEEP SAYING THAT SHE WILL BE SUPPORTING OBAMA OBAMA OBAMA AND THAT HE SUPPORTS MITT ROMNEY MITT ROMNEY MITT ROMNEY.

[byronius]

8. Hard to imagine anyone could vote for that smirking, simpering bully. What a fuckface, pardon my

fucking English.

Scott Brown is an amoral moronic dick. I can't believe anyone could seriously consider him a leader of any kind after that debate.

Elizabeth Warren is obviously a leader. A strong, wise, woman. Brown looked like a completely stupid asshole next to her.

Really, that debate was about as clear a fucking lesson as getting hit in the head with a brick.

18% undecided? WTF? There's that many walking dead in MA?

Embarassing. I'm embarassed for them all.

[TroyD]

9. '18% undecided?'

That's just what this one poll claims - the rest have much small undecided numbers.

It's the trendline that's important, and it's going up for Warren so far.

[Cosmocat]

13. He has the smary politician looks and manner

but, the stress of this race has brought out a pretty unattractive side to him.

[RBInMaine]

23. Many of that 18% USED TO be for Brown, but NOW are re-thinking. Warren needs to capture them.

[torotoro]

10. Should be a FUN Debate on Monday

Looking forward to it.
Go Warren!!! Wish we had more REAL democrats like you.

[Blue Yorker]

11. brown may strike people as obnoxious with his Cherokee thing

It's just tiring and irrelevant.

[Cosmocat]

14. Seriously, WTF was he thinking?

A month ago, he had a pretty clear lead on Warren.

I think she is has always been a pretty formidable opponent, but he still was in a pretty solid position.

This whole Cherokee thing - WTF is advising him? I mean, this is one of the worst self inflicted wounds I have ever seen in a national candidate. It is not a gaffe, a slip up, or a personal issue. It is him CHOOSING to make a big deal out of something that pretty clearly is going to make him look bad.

I don't get it.

He was in a position to act like a Senator, act like a Statesman, engage in a discussion of policy where had the advantage of the media framing him as a reasonable R in a day and age when there is no such thing.

And, he starts up up with this nonsense?

[hrmjustin]

18. he was not thinking

[foo_bar]

19. I don't think bringing up policy differences helps him either

Being a nominal repub in MA is a tightrope act, not unlike being a Dem in Nebraska, so while he benefits from this endangered jackalope narrative, his actual policy positions are anathematic to swaths of voters in this state, although he's generally as skillful a triangulator as Romney used to be when it comes to sugar 'n teflon coating national GOP policy. I think he won the 2010 race as a sort of personality referendum, and the Cherokee thing seemed to help his campaign this spring, or at least it kept the airwaves buzzing with Warren's purported flaws instead of her policy proposals or Brown's RINOsity, so the campaign is desperate to change the subject now that Warren's leading and the Senate's up for grabs. Unfortunately for Brown he's kind of a moron, or at least he pissed away his Mr. Not-So-Evil Guy persona with the tonal equivalent of a 70s anti-busing campaign, and by making this issue the sole focus of their TV spots and debates, the campaign looks bound for Scylla and Charybdis without a rudder.

[Cosmocat]

20. yeah

I guess is it easier to hide in the weeds in a "policy" discussion instead of damaging his brand as one of the "good guys" by CHOOSING this line of attack on her.

I am sure the cherokee thing worked in the spring during the primary period, when it was the freak show bubble.

This type of tact might work in a state with more Rs than Ds. But, goiing into the fall, a general election, in a state that is home turf for dems, his going with this type of approach alone, childish as it is, much less against a women.

Again, this isn't an accident, a slip of the tongue being exaggerated, or some kind of personal issue.

He is CHOOSING this.

[RBInMaine]

21. Being an INCUMBENT down to 38% is NOT GOOD FOR THE NAKED MAN. Keep driving up his negatives !!

The whole Indian thing is backfiring bigtime. Makes him look like a desperate race bater. Keep tying him to the Republicans and their rich special interests at every turn, keep tying him to his REPUBLICAN party line votes in the Senate, and make him look like the desperate and angry asshole that he is.

[TroyD]

24. Warren should be tougher on Brown in tomorrow's debate

She was a little too easy on him last time:

1. When Brown says the 'independent' Chamber of Commerce supports him, Warren should point out that it is a pro-corporate organization that supports big business candidates who are usually Republican

2. When Brown keeps trying to run as Obama's best friend because he knows Romney is going down in Massachusetts, Warren should tie Brown to Mitt by asking him flat out whether he supports Romney

[graywarrior]

25. Bet all the women in his house are experiencing his melt down and temper tantrum