2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe biggest losers last night: The Gravis and PPP polling outfits.
The final Gravis poll (Jan. 26) had Hillary +8 over Bernie, 48-40.
The final PPP poll (Jan. 27) had Hillary +11 over Bernie, 53-42!
Credibility. Destroyed.
Dustlawyer
(10,497 posts)It is all part of the meme that Bernie can't win. At stake is the ability of the 1% to maintain their control over our government. That is why Bernie is calling for a "Political REVOLUTION". The 1% will pull out all of the stops to protect their ability to bribe Republican and Democratic politicians with campaign donations.
Voting for Hillary means that you want to continue to live under corporate rule. It's that simple, no matter how hard Hillary's supporters try to deny it.
reformist2
(9,841 posts)I have to hand it to the other pollsters - they got it right!
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)I'd say it was the conventional wisdom in general on modeling races with unconventional candidates. I think there's still going to be a lot of polls that underrate how Sanders is doing from a lot of different pollsters still to come.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)reformist2
(9,841 posts)wildeyed
(11,243 posts)Which is always kinda true, but last night was REALLY true
Gravis was always shit. It's a robocall right? I pretty much ignore that one. They have been an outlier for the entire season. Why they even bother is beyond me....
Eight points off is not that bad for the IA caucuses. In 2012, everyone missed by a lot too. Huckabee won, which no one saw coming and Obama exceeded expectations by a bunch. And anyway, you can't discount a polling outfit based on a single poll. It is a random sample of a certain demographic. Sometimes, even with a good sample size and well designed pool, the results skew. It can be a one off thing.
Anyway, it is Rubio's performance that is probably making a bunch of pollsters want to kill themselves this morning. He WAY over performed.