2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumAt my site - Hillary's precinct capt. took delegate away from Bernie (via O'Malley)
Now, before everyone loses their minds, I realize that this "technique" was discussed AT LENGTH on this site, and the purpose of this OP is not to debate the legality of, but to discuss how things went down. For reference purposes, this took place in Davenport (Scott county) precinct D62, representing ward 6, precinct 2. Here's a map with the precinct by precinct results for Scott county - you have to move the cursor to look at individual results by precinct.
https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/county/19163
Looking at this, the casual observer may think, "Hmmm, apparently, there were as many O'Malley supporters as there were for Bernie", but that is NOT the case by a long shot.
There were slightly under 200 people that assembled at this caucus site, and when the initial votes were counted, the numbers came in at roughly 100 for Hillary, 70 for Bernie, and less than 10 for O'Malley. There was some back-and-forth regarding the accuracy of the count, and it took a good three attempts before the captains and caucus chair were satisfied that they had the correct number. Based on these numbers, it was determined that the 4 delegates from this precinct would be split 2 for Hillary, and 2 for Bernie.
Someone in Hillary's camp asked how many more supporters they would need to tilt the balance and gain another delegate. It was clear that there would be no movement between the Hillary and Bernie sides, but Hillary precinct captain explained that some of her supporters could move to O'Malley, making him viable (above the 15% threshold) and giving him a delegate. This would of course take one away from Bernie, since he still would be (barely) behind her in total supporters. It took 28 people from her side to make it happen, and there were enough volunteers willing to step up.
At this point, the shit totally hit the fan! Several Bernie supporters were absolutely livid. Voices were raised, there were some heated arguments, and one of the loudest voices on the pro Bernie side was accused of showing up late, thus making him ineligible to participate. This was a young man who was there with his very pregnant wife, and when his eligibility was questioned, several of us jumped up to challenge this. We all knew that they arrived well ahead of the 7:00 cut off as we wanted to make sure she had a chair, given her condition.
There was some discussion about what could be attempted to counter this move, but the difference in the numbers really precluded anything we could possibly do to balance the end result in terms of delegates. Needless to say, there were lots of unhappy people walking out of the caucus on Bernie's side.
As I stated at the beginning, it was not my intent to debate the legality of this maneuvering, but rather to think about the long term implications. Assuming that Hillary ends up as our party's eventual nominee, she is going to need the support of every pro-Bernie voter out there today, regardless of how much we knock the ridiculous freak-show/clown car express on the other side. We can whistle in the dark and just assume "landslide" in the general election, but I don't want to wake up on the morning of November 9th, wondering what the fuck happened to us!
hobbit709
(41,694 posts)InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)The scope of the conspiracy claimed would have involved MANY low-level people. There is NO WAY it wouldn't have been found out.
The Des Moines Register reports nothing on all this. Nor do any other major media. The Register did report that results from Precinct 42 were "missing" for a while. Bernie won that precinct.
Hillary is expected to win the nomination regardless of Iowa, and she was projected to win, tie or barely lose Iowa going in. Why would she put everything on the line to end in a damned TIE in a whitey-white state whose loss to Bernie is easily explained away?
Without careful expert analysis -- WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE -- there is no reason to assume that video shows fraud. It shows sloppiness and imperfection, that we can see, but that's not the only caucus where people just wandered around and left.
Bullwinkle428, I will apologize to you if I read about this massive attempt to create a TIE in the Iowa papers. Should be QUITE a scandal involving the Iowa Democratic Party and many of its leaders. Since Hillary's name is involved we can expect the GOP to run with it and the national and international media to pick it up. Benghazi will be nothing to it -- IF it's real.
Maybe by this afternoon it'll explode on the national scene?
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)Guess it's prudent to wait for all the facts to come out... we shall soon see. But IF it is real as you say, and the Hillary campaign's fingerprints are all over this, it's not gonna be pretty.
Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!
BigGLiberal
(102 posts)You might ask yourself how he will get that.
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)Isn't that the question Hillary supporters ask? And, after all, Hillary supporters have said, time and again, that if Bernie won, they'd all vote for him. You calling them all liars?
tblue37
(65,488 posts)so many are people HE brought into the party, so they might not participate in the GE without him to vote for if they feel he was weaseled out of the nomination by such tactics. We need their votes downticket, too, so it's important not to alienate them.
I will vote as a yellow dog Dem no matter what, but as a Bernie supporter, I am disgusted by the way he and his supporters have been treated by the Dem establishment. I fear we could lose a lot of enthusiastic new voters over this sort of thing.
CrispyQ
(36,517 posts)The assumption that people who are engaging in politics for the first time because of Bernie will show up to vote for HRC.
The Green Manalishi
(1,054 posts)For exactly that same reason.
I would bet that he would work much harder for her than she would for him if he were the nominee.
humbled_opinion
(4,423 posts)fails to see the calculus of this two candidates... Hillary positions square more with moderate Republicans,, Bernie Sanders wants real change..... Bernie supporters do not necessarily translate to Hillary supporters in the GE but Hillary supporters have no where else to go but Bernie in the GE... That is why it is extremely important, especially after all the little dirty tricks in Iowa that we implore average Democratic voters in the remaining primary states to look at the issues and see the history of the candidates on those issues not to mention Bernie comes with absolutely NO DRAMA and NO Baggage.
Plucketeer
(12,882 posts)I was struck by at least a couple of caucus participants (all women as it happened) who basically said they were standing up for Hillary because it's time for a woman in the White House. Hell, it's time for a leprechaun in the White House, if they're a natural US citizen - over 35 and touting ideals that we progressives want to see enacted!
What we have at stake here is much more important considerations than physical plumbing and other fitments! However we've been denied a female POTUS since the office was created, the breaking of that "glass ceiling" will happen when the best person for the job just happens to have the creds to deserve it on principles. And I confess loudly that I SO wanted to see Elizabeth Warren make a run for POTUS! But Warren (showing just how QUALIFIED she is) chose to stay true to the promise she made to her constituents as US Senator and STAY the course she's been elected to. THAT is integrity like Hillary can't even imagine.
Honestly, it would be a tough choice for me - Bernie or Elizabeth - and that choice would have NO weight bias that involved gender. I know..... easy for me to say, bein' a guy and all. But again, I focus on substance and integrity - NOT gender.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)pinebox
(5,761 posts)She doesn't have it.
basselope
(2,565 posts)Clinton can't stand up to Trump or Rubio.
Cruz would be a huge relief to me, b/c there would complete apathy on both sides.
Probably the lowest voter turnout in presidential election history in a Clinton v Cruz contest.
zeemike
(18,998 posts)To the 1%.
The only thing that matters is that Hillary is the Dems choice to run...they know the GOP will do what they want no matter who runs so the race is to get Hillary the nod...then they cannot lose.
bigbrother05
(5,995 posts)Think he's on any VP short list regardless of the nominee. He could fit quite well with Bernie to offset any "age" questions and get regional help as well.
DhhD
(4,695 posts)If Clinton finds or determines that she will win the Texas Primary anyway, seems like a VP from a state that is not a sure winner for her, would be a stronger choice, on her VP list. How can Castro make speeches about the continuing below living wage minimum wage Plan of Hillary Clinton?
http://www.mystatesman.com/news/news/opinion/dickerson-the-middle-class-is-being-gutted-in-texa/np9D3/?icmp=statesman_internallink_referralbox_free-to-premium-referral
A Texas parent needs a living wage of just over $21.00/hour for a living wage. See the table in the article link.
bigbrother05
(5,995 posts)Young, Hispanic, energetic. Would be a good complement for either Clinton or Sanders. Would likely bring his brother into the campaign as well.
Proud Public Servant
(2,097 posts)Total lightweight with no accomplishments to speak of. I will never understand the enthusiasm for him. Surely we can find someone better to put a heartbeat away from the presidency (especially when choosing between geriatric candidates).
Lorien
(31,935 posts)And she doesn't stand a chance with Millennials or Republicans. Her utter contempt for the Left, right wig policy positions and dripping arrogance has doomed her in the General election. As has been said time and time again: "given a Republican and a Democrat who acts like one, the people will choose the real Republican every time."
liberalnarb
(4,532 posts)Thats not an issue I care about but it may doom us if she wins the nomination. People get excited about a message of change. Thats whats building such momentum behind Bernie and its what put Barack Obama in the White House. Hillary's idea that we shouldn't male any real changes and should build on what Obama has achieved will not only bore millennials into not voting but it will put a monster liker cruz in the white house.
bvar22
(39,909 posts)Doesn't exactly make people want to stand up and cheer.
Lorien
(31,935 posts)of any candidate that has ever won the Presidency. For someone who prides herself on her "experience", she sure has some of the shittiest political instincts in history!
Uponthegears
(1,499 posts)Bernie is the only current candidate who represents what the Democratic Party stood for before it was taken over by the barely-better-than-a-Dixiecrat William Jefferson Clinton and the DLC.
That being said, I will tell my fellow Bernie supporters exactly how Hillary Clinton plans to both get the nomination and win in November.
First, as she has already, she will "evolve" to the left ever so slightly (and become MUCH more vocal) on some issues that are real important to real (yep, I said "real," deal with it) Democratic voters, but don't require those voters to have a bunch of knowledge or explanation, e.g., "universal" health care, global warming, campaign finance reform etc. Her objective in doing so will be to attempt to peel off enough "low information" (a thousand apologies for using the language of the nutcase right) Bernie supporters (yes, there are some in every crowd, let's be honest) to raise her numbers and perhaps quench the fire of many who will not switch.
Second, she will attempt to "populist-ize" her right wing talking points against the fundamental changes Bernie is trying to bring about. For example, we will start to hear things like "I'm all for getting the money out of politics, but when you start saying that Jane down on the shop floor shouldn't be allowed to have her union fight for her rights as a worker, you're stepping on MY people. Fix Citizens United, but don't put a gag on Jane" or "Yea, universal coverage, let's have it, but don't tell Jim which doctor he can see." or "Yea, we need to make sure the rich pay their fair share but when you start talking about taxing investments, you're talking about stealing the homes, the farms, and the savings accounts of hard-working Americans." She can get away with making these kinds of attacks because these are very complex positions that can be slandered in an instant but require take far more time to defend than people will be willing to spend listening. This will not only please her corporate masters, when she gets to the GE, she will then turn to the "swing voters" who the Third Way believe can ONLY be attracted through incrementalism and say, "I am an independent. When some in my party wanted to lead us down the path of socialism, I stood up and said 'no.' I'm not here for revolution, I'm here for you."
Will this work? Possibly (unless Rubio is the Republican nominee). Will it make our country better? No. Will it make our party better? It will destroy it.
So yes, there is a road to a Clinton victory in November. And on the street sign at the corner it reads "Pandering Avenue." Democratic voters can choose that road if they wish.
BUT BUT BUT
There is another road to victory. On its street sign it says "Inspiring Way." At that corner stands Bernie Sanders. And that road leads to victory regardless of who the Republicans run.
WE ARE THIS COUNTRY.
onecaliberal
(32,896 posts)InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)kristopher
(29,798 posts)DoBotherMe
(2,340 posts)In my precinct the O'Malley caucus lead tried to work that same deal with Sanders so that O'Malley would have 1 vote. This is grassroots decision making. BTW more than 50 Sanders supporters were ineligible to vote because they had not signed the register. Our precinct captain asked the crowd if we approved of letting them sign the register after the first vote was taken. It was a resounding Aye.
IADEMO2004
(5,559 posts)Best good news post today.
DoBotherMe
(2,340 posts)If you are inside by 7 p.m. you can participate, IF you've signed the register. We as a caucus agreed to amend the rule for those who had been standing outside in the cold for an hour trying to register for the first time as a Democrat. BTW Sanders took 6 of the 10 delegates and the O'Malley caucus were unable to become viable. That's the way the caucus works.
IADEMO2004
(5,559 posts)blackspade
(10,056 posts)As for giving O'Malley a delegate, I see that you noted that it was 'tried' but not by the Sanders folks.
And that's the difference.
DoBotherMe
(2,340 posts)folks, that's what happens at a caucus. The Sanders leader didn't need to pull people from the O'Malley side because their candidate didn't need them and the Clinton caucus didn't have enough numbers to help them. Which part of collaboration and cooperation do you not get? The point of the caucus is to NOT disenfranchise any candidate that can become viable.
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
trillion
(1,859 posts)I don't think it's smart at all. Sounds like something the worst of the repubs would do.
Bet Bernie wouldn't drop to doing that.
Roland99
(53,342 posts)marble falls
(57,223 posts)rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)The Oligarchy has unlimited resources and they aren't afraid to use them. They aren't used to losing.
iandhr
(6,852 posts)Bernie's camp maybe should have tried reaching out to the O'Malley folks to cast their second choice vote for their candidate. If they did that maybe Bernie wins.
bullwinkle428
(20,630 posts)enough O'Malley supporters to tip the balance over Hillary's people.
iandhr
(6,852 posts)hill2016
(1,772 posts)totally wasted that delegate since MOM decided to pull out.
retrowire
(10,345 posts)Secondly, wow, caucusing sucks.
Thank god the majority of states do primaries
FailureToCommunicate
(14,022 posts)LittleGirl
(8,291 posts)should reconsider this b.s. system and go with a primary instead. Seems like a c.f.
AtheistCrusader
(33,982 posts)1. Bring food/snacks/water/creature comforts, you're likely going to be there a while.
2. Bring your patience. You will be told you can't do things the party establishment candidate supporters can do.
3. You will be rules-gamed by your opponents.
4. You will be threatened by removal, or ineligibility for the most minor of offenses.
5. Document everything.
6. Keep an eye on the ballots.
I observed some of the same shit in the Romney/Paul primary. Romney was the anointed RNC candidate, and HOW DARE the Ron Paul supporters try to do things like call for division, or ask for time for delegates to spend 30 seconds talking about why they chose whichever candidate, etc.
1. I saw a Motion to End All Motions passed, because the Romney supporters considered the Paul supporters there to 'outlast' so the working Romney voters would go home.
2. 'No literature allowed in the voting area', except the Sargent at Arms passed out the RNC pro-Romney 'unity slate' ballots.
3. No pictures allowed if you were taking pictures of anything inconvenient to the Romney campaign. Threatened with expulsion. (There was a Romney supporter at the front of the voting area with 'YEA' 'NAY' cheerleading cards to lead the vote efforts. All efforts were designed to truncate the process and get it over with as fast as possible, and silence the Paul supporters.
4. Assault. Romney supporters literally ripped pro-Paul documentation out of supporters hands and deposited the entire stack in the trash. Bumping, shoving, etc, the norm.
5. Taking the ballots 'in the back' to count them. Where no one could see. Don't worry, there were 'observers'.
6. Cutting deals, in this case, Romney supporters doing math games with the Santorum supporters to give him a delegate or two, and deduct from the Paul totals. Every Ron Paul delegate was viewed as damaging to Romney's campaign, Santorum was just there to sell books, because the RNC primary circuit is mostly an all-expense-paid book tour.
Same shit, different party. Doesn't matter that it's 'us'. we're no better at the end of the day, because we're just a large group of humans trying to get their way. The same means will present themselves in the same scenario. Romney/Paul was not different from Clinton/Sanders.
When you get a chance to observe the opposition's primary, you start to see some really shitty things in the mirror.
YRTexas
(3 posts)I couldn't agree more with what you are saying about focusing on the big win in the general election. As a Clinton supporter in D62, I can tell you that many of us left feeling equally upset. The raw vote count in our room put Clinton ahead of Sanders by roughly 20%, and the process we went through, resulted in a delegate allocation that reflected the fact that Clinton came out ahead. Shouldn't we want a process that allows us to capture that reality? We felt as though we were exercising our right to move wherever we wanted in the room, but when we did, we got screamed at, told that we were what was wrong with politics, and even heard the word "stupid" thrown around. That word does not belong in democratic caucus. We are not Trump. We are better than that.
In reality, I only made up my mind between Bernie and Hillary within the last week. I could easily vote for either one of them in the general election. I am proud of what both of them stand for, and how they have run their campaigns. But I am not proud of what happened in D62 last night. In 2008, I left my caucus feeling hopeful and optimistic. Last night, I left feeling bruised and embarrassed. No one should ever have to feel that way for exercising their right to vote however they want.
DebJ
(7,699 posts)PyaarRevolution
(814 posts)What made up your mind for Hillary?
YRTexas
(3 posts)I'm worried that Bernie's ideas, most of which I like, are so far from center that we'll never see the compromise we so desperately need. Not to be cliche, but Hillary was a "head" choice for me. I'm okay with less change as long as it stands a better chance of being impactful.
tblue37
(65,488 posts)allowed the "center" to move far to the right.
NRaleighLiberal
(60,020 posts)we've been compromised to death!
YRTexas
(3 posts)I don't see compromise as a death sentence, I see it as good. It's how things get done. Not everything you want, but better than nothing at all. For me, Clinton is better positioned to do this. That's all.
I don't mind the debate, and I am open to being convinced that I'm wrong. But no one should ever be ridiculed for their choice.
nyabingi
(1,145 posts)according to Hillary Clinton is along the lines of Reagan Republicans, and that ain't gonna fly with most real Democrats.
Hillary is good at making people believe her lies, but as we've seen with her time and time again, she doesn't believe any of it.
Cassiopeia
(2,603 posts)and coin flips in her favor it's pretty damn hard for Hillary supporters to strut around calling this a win.
There's still a long road ahead. Stay strong and GOTV.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)This is precisely the scenario I described last week;
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1083132
I personally think the caucus system is an old-fashioned relic that needs to be scrapped, along with Iowa's first-place position in the race, but as long as that's how it is, you can't cry over someone playing by the rules.
malthaussen
(17,216 posts)... there were roughly 15% more voters who favored Mrs Clinton over Mr Sanders, but because some favored Mr O'Malley, the delegates were initially split to 50-50 between Mrs Clinton and Mr Sanders. To rectify this, Mrs Clinton's supporters arranged that Mr O'Malley would receive enough votes to get one of Mr Sanders's delegates.
Since Mrs Clinton had a clear majority, I fail to see why a 50-50 result would have been preferable. In fact, such a result would have distorted the actual preferences of the approximately 200 people in the room.
And as observed upthread, good tactics by Mrs Clinton's supporters.
-- Mal
groundloop
(11,523 posts)As much as I dislike petty 'games' like this, I feel that by and large Democrats have lost out to republicons because they're better at playing the hardball game of politics. For instance, we needed to play hardball with Joe Lieberman when he and a few others torpedoed 'Medicare for all'. Yes, it's distasteful, but we need to understand that it's the way politics is played.
aggiesal
(8,923 posts)"Medicare for all" was torpedoed by Obama himself.
Lieberman was just the messenger.
This was apparently Obama's call.
I was bitterly disappointed, that this was the case.
Sorry, I don't have a link.
kenfrequed
(7,865 posts)I don't much like it, but at least this part is according to the rules.
It is remarkable that despite this and six coin flips it was still within 0.4% Her campaign would be foolish to run around doing a touch down dance over this one.
joshcryer
(62,276 posts)bullwinkle428
(20,630 posts)when I spoke with her on the phone after getting back home last night!
DanTex
(20,709 posts)in_cog_ni_to
(41,600 posts)Complete opposite of Bernie Sanders!
Bernie can hold his head high. HRH should hang hers in shame.
PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE
FlatBaroque
(3,160 posts)some call it The Karl Rove way.
DUbeornot2be
(367 posts)...third way?
blackspade
(10,056 posts)Winning and losing on merit is a foreign concept to some Clinton supporters.
What a dick move.
Codeine
(25,586 posts)blackspade
(10,056 posts)If that is 'normal' then there are a lot of ethically 'loose' people out there in our own party.
That's sad.
AZ Progressive
(3,411 posts)Codeine
(25,586 posts)in any way unethical?
For that matter, what is the ethical argument for a candidate with clear majority of caucus-goers in a precinct to settle for an even split of state delegates? If she had enough delegates to peel a bunch off to caucus for OM she onviously won that precinct; her supporters made sure the delegate total reflected that reality.
hughee99
(16,113 posts)If you are encouraging YOUR supporters to pretend to support SOMEONE ELSE because it benefits you the most, it's not hard to see where the ethical ground might be a little unstable.
I also wouldn't be surprised to hear that Sanders supporters used this same tactic elsewhere.
Renew Deal
(81,871 posts)So when it's all said and done, not only did they take one from Bernie, but they added one to Hillary.
JustAnotherGen
(31,895 posts)Thanks for sharing.
MaynardGeeKrebs
(31 posts)according to an earlier post here at DU.
George II
(67,782 posts)That's the caucus process, happens all the time in the caucuses in both directions.
JI7
(89,269 posts)DirkGently
(12,151 posts)HassleCat
(6,409 posts)This illustrates why caucuses are an instrument of the party establishment.
Codeine
(25,586 posts)with Sanders in a count lead but evenly divided delegates his camp could do the same thing. This is how the caucus plays out. People move around the room.
hill2016
(1,772 posts)and left with more delegates. Her team followed the rules too.
Not sure why the Bernie supporters are unhappy?
TransitJohn
(6,932 posts)in November. Of course, liberals and the young will be blamed.
artislife
(9,497 posts)And I am just talking about the Democrats.
We know about the Republicans.
dana_b
(11,546 posts)those who continue to side with a Wall Street loving, pro war candidate who runs on the status quo and who couldn't care less about them.
2banon
(7,321 posts)a peak through a window of the dynamics in this process.
DVRacer
(707 posts)Bernie could have sent enough people about 17-18 to MOM and he would have got 2 and Sanders and Clinton would have each got 1. But that's the my mind works.
bullwinkle428
(20,630 posts)have had the opportunity to move back to their original side, thus recalculating the total to 2 for Hillary, and 1 each for Bernie and Martin. It would have become a never-ending game of tic-tac-toe, constantly ending in a draw.
Faux pas
(14,690 posts)beat 'em, cheat 'em.
Proud Public Servant
(2,097 posts)What they did was totally within the rules of the Iowa caucus -- rules the Iowa Democratic party itself established (the GOP caucus works differently). And this is the tactic that has been used by frontrunners at every Iowa Dem caucus since forever.
I'm a Bernie supporter, but I will never, ever fault a candidate for using every allowable, sanctioned tactic to win an election. And when we get to the general election, I do NOT want a candidate who is to pure to take on the GOP by any means necessary.
bigbrother05
(5,995 posts)Would assume that the person sent to the next level would be an O'Malley supporter. With the Gov out of the race, it would seem there is no shame in his pledged delegates moving where they feel comfortable. Maybe Bernie picks up enough to win in the long run, similar to how Ron Paul ended up with the most in the last cycle.
As noted, it's just now beginning.
Arazi
(6,829 posts)So HRC has won the caucus, she still has to win that state in the General Election. If she's maneuvered the delegates, then the true picture of how Iowans will vote is obscured making the "big picture" overview very very hard to read.
I don't see how that's good for Dems for winning in November. Sounds like there's a possibility she'll lose the state and we won't know that since there's been this manipulation.
I'd far rather know where we need to intensify efforts than having a muddy picture.
That said what she did was legal. Just making sure I've added that
Proud Public Servant
(2,097 posts)Represents the average Iowa voter, period. And I say that as a former Iowan. So it's neither here nor there.
Ivan Kaputski
(528 posts)jfern
(5,204 posts)Codeine
(25,586 posts)That's how it's done. Caucus-savvy Sanders supporters in a similar situation would do the same thing.