It's a Tie!

[MineralMan]

By the time the Iowa state convention is held, following the county and congressional district conventions there, the delegates to the national convention will be pretty much split evenly. That's the result of last night's caucuses in Iowa.

Now, we move on to New Hampshire, which will probably result in a majority of that state's national convention delegates going to Bernie Sanders.

That's the reality. Nothing has been decided so far, with regard to who will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. That will depend on what happens in SC and NV and all of the states who hold caucuses or primaries on Super Tuesday, March 1.

The campaigns continue. The discussion continues. The arguments continue. It's primary season on DU. And there it is.

[theboss]

1. Anything short of a 10 point Hillary victory was going to leave us where we are

I assume NH goes to Bernie comfortably. After that, we will learn pretty quickly whether this will be a coronation or a long campaign. I still lean towards coronation, but who knows?

I absolutely believe that primaries should be heated contests. I don't get concerned until it's May, and it's still not decided, and everyone is angry.

What's happening right now is healthy and good.

[George II]

39. Why is it if Sanders wins it'll be a "victory", if Clinton wins it's a "coronation"? Why are.....

....votes for Clinton any less significant than votes for Sanders?

[RoccoR5955]

50. Because Clinton has been pre-ordained

By The Holy Ones!
You know, the gods of the Almighty Dollar.

[arely staircase]

55. If she wins it will be because rank and file Democrats support her. nt

[RoccoR5955]

56. I have been a registered Democrat since 1973

Does that make me "rank and file?"

[arely staircase]

57. Yepper. Though not the only one. nt

[virtualobserver]

2. you made the right decision going to bed last night

I wish that I had followed your lead.....I guess I picked the wrong election to give up coffee.

[MineralMan]

4. I don't stress over primary elections.

Each one only represents 2% of the states. The voters will do what they think best and the results will be what they are. Primary season can be a long, long haul. I'm watching delegate counts for the national convention, and that's it.

So, I woke up this morning and listened to the 6 AM news on the radio. I found out about the tie. It was going to be near a tie anyhow, and now it's pretty much certain that Iowa will send an equally divided delegation to the national convention. Net effect: a wash for Iowa.

Now, I move on. After the NH primary, I'll also turn in early. When I wake up, the results will be clear and I'll fill in another set of boxes on my delegate count spreadsheet. Eventually it will become clear who the Democratic nominee with be.

[JDPriestly]

41. Sanders has the youth vote and the youth enthusiasm.

Last edited Wed Feb 3, 2016, 04:57 AM - Edit history (1)

That is not going to transfer to Hillary. If Hillary begins to pick up states, winning in November will be a lot tougher.

If Sanders picks up more states than Hillary, we will have the impetus of the youth vote to carry us through November, AND the future will be sealed for Democrats. We will win a generation for the Democratic Party.

That was proved in Iowa last night. It is not just a crazy theory on my part. Remember. The youth of Iowa showed up last night. They love Bernie. They really love him.

It's the old fuddy-duddies who vote for Hillary.

Feel the Bern! Because this election will decide the future of the Democratic Party.

Feel the Bern!

On edit: I'm a fuddy-duddie too. 72 to be exact. Not getting any less fuddy-duddie. I'm a fuddy-duddie for Bernie. There are a few of us, maybe lots of us. Just so people who are Hillary supporters won't think I am being ageist. I'm just joking.

[Hekate]

42. Oooo, "old fuddy-duddies" is it?

JURY: I'm merely quoting the poster's words about Hillary's voter base back at him in an ironical fashion.

[JDPriestly]

46. It's OK. I won't report you and don't want your post removed.

It's kind of fun. I don't take it personally at all.

[berni_mccoy]

3. Agreed.

[leftynyc]

5. Funny how only

the campaign who gets less delegates is calling this a tie. And by funny, I mean pathetic. Is there anything wrong with enjoying how close Bernie came without this colossal bullshit about a tie? Because we all know if it were the other way around, Bernie supporters would NOT be calling this a tie.

[MineralMan]

10. Funny. I'm a Hillary supporter.

It's a statistical tie. Bernie did well and better than I expected.

I deal with realities in primary season. I track numbers for the national convention as well as I am able. Right now, it's a tie for pledged delegates on my spreadsheet.

[JudyM]

12. Cnn was calling it a tie. Nt

[George II]

40. Tell that to Tom Brady and the Patriots. 23-21 isn't a tie.

[PatrynXX]

53. SDE difference of 4 with 8 that could go from Omalley to Sanders says it's a tie

could get really interesting if 2 go to Hillary and 6 go to Sanders then it is a tie X_X

[George II]

54. I believe at least six of the eight Super Delegates have already come out for Clinton.

[Dr Hobbitstein]

6. 22-21 is a tie? nt

[BigGLiberal]

7. Actually is is 29 Hillary 21 Bernie

[Dr Hobbitstein]

8. I'm not counting the super delegates this early on. nt

[krawhitham]

21. super delegates can flip anytime they want, as they did in 2008

This is a tie, any time it comes down to a coin flip it is a tie. This came down to 6 coin flips

[MineralMan]

9. Sure, statistically.

Iowa is a state with a small population. It sends relatively few delegates to the national convention. That delegate count will probably change over time, as well. There are county conventions, congressional conventions and a state convention to be held before the actual delegates to the national convention are chosen.

In Iowa, a delegate to any of those three Iowa conventions can change who he or she will support by simply signing a declaration. I can guarantee that the count you provided will not be the same after the final state convention there. It never is in Iowa. Any national convention delegate counts after the precinct primaries is almost sure to be wrong.

Iowa is a tie. It's that simple. Iowa doesn't really matter all that much at the national convention anyhow.

[Motown_Johnny]

11. But if Bernie has more elected delegates after New Hampshire....

does that make him the front runner?

[MineralMan]

13. Sure, until the next primary is held.

Of course, there are always the superdelegates to consider.

Following the NH primary, Bernie Sanders will probably have a lead in the pledged delegate count. But leads don't matter, really, this early in the primary season. There are still two more primaries or caucuses in February, followed closely by Super Tuesday.

We'll see how the delegate count looks on March 2. That's the earliest date I will pretty much know who the nominee will be, unless something changes to push that date further into the year.

The early primaries are a psychological test, really. Either you get all excited or angry, depending on who you support. Or, you can shrug and wait until there are more results to consider. I'm in that last group.

[Motown_Johnny]

14. I think it will depend on national poll numbers at that point.

Superdelegates don't commit until the convention. They can say anything they want right now, it isn't binding.

[MineralMan]

15. Some of the superdelegates might change their minds

before the convention. That's certainly true. Many won't, though. I don't track superdelegates in my delegate count spreadsheet, until the very end. They're a factor, but a changeable one. So, I don't deal with that. I consider only pledged delegates. In most election years, the majority vote from them is enough to decide the nominee. Superdelegates only come into play if there isn't a clear majority in the pledged delegate count.

There are months to go before we know the real numbers. However, I expect a majority of pledged delegates to be reached well before the final primary. When that happens, the result will be known.

That won't happen on Super Tuesday, but we'll be able to see any trends that develop. It's all a state-by-state thing. Shortly, polling will get hot and heavy in the March 1 states.

[Motown_Johnny]

16. But the MSM polls had Hillary up in Iowa by anywhere from 4 - 8 percent.

So how much credibility do they have at this point? Don't they need to be closer in the next 3 contests before we can believe what they predict for March 1 ?

[MineralMan]

17. As much as polls ever have. That's why they list

a margin of error. There is only one poll that counts: the one taken on election or caucus day. The rest are eye candy for folks like us who eat, drink and breathe politics. I watch polls, but I watch real results a lot more closely.

[Motown_Johnny]

19. Then some should have had Bernie up by 4 - 8 percent.

It isn't a margin of error problem when they all err to one side.

It would seem that they are under sampling younger people and that is skewing their estimates.

[MineralMan]

20. Some late polls in Iowa did have Bernie on top.

The actual results tell the story, not the polls.

[passiveporcupine]

38. Or, you can shrug and wait until there are more results to consider.

Thanks MM for a rational post. Count me in that last category too.

[ChisolmTrailDem]

18. Thanks for the recap that everyone already knew last night after you announced...

...you were out for the night.

[MineralMan]

22. You're very welcome.

You can count on me to post occasionally during all of this. I promise to come through that way. In that, I join many other DUers who are posting this morning about yesterday's results.

[ChisolmTrailDem]

23. Just don't ask you to type a "yes" or "no" if it doesn't specifically suit your purposes. nt

[MineralMan]

24. Like almost all DUers, I post as I see fit.

I don't respond to demands. I post what I think. I'm very gratified, though, that you pay such close attention to what I write here. That makes me feel like what I post gets read. Thanks!

[ChisolmTrailDem]

25. It wasn't a demand. I asked you a simple "yes" or "no" question and you refused to give that answer

...but not before typing a whole bunch of other crap designed to avoid answering that "yes" or "no" question.

Yea, I've got your number. And because I, just like you, can post at will, I won't let you forget until you go back to that thread and answer my question.

[MineralMan]

27. My number is legion, as I'm sure you know.

[ChisolmTrailDem]

28. A simple "yes" or "no" is all it would have taken. You refused to answer. I won't forget. And,

I won't let you forget either.

[MineralMan]

30. OK. You keep reminding me, then.

I did not "refuse" to answer, though. I simply did not answer. As I said, I don't take commands regarding my posting here.

I'll look forward to your future reminders that I keep my own counsel and make my own decisions.

[ChisolmTrailDem]

31. Oh, you can bet that I will be there. I won't stop. Every time I see a post by you...

...I will be there.

A simple "yes" or "no" response by you to settle a disagreement is all it will take. It was a question, not a command.

You refuse to answer because it would show that I was right. That is what this is about.

[MineralMan]

32. I see. Well, I'll try to give you ample opportunities, then, as always.

I don't have many people following me on DU, so that will be gratifying.

[ChisolmTrailDem]

33. A "yes" or "no" was all I asked of you. "Yes" or "no", that's all you had to type. But, ...

...you didn't because it would have shown that I was right. That is why you refuse to answer a simple "yes" or "no" question. That is why you wrote hundreds of other words in order to avoid answering my question. It was not a demand or a command and you're dishonestly attempting to portray it. It was a question that would have settled that entire dispute. "Yes" or "no". To answer honestly would have meant nothing to you and would have been no effort on your part. But you refused and wrote hundreds of words to avoid a response.

This is who you are.

[Hekate]

45. So you are declaring definitively that you will be actively stalking MM?

Why so obsessed? Are you bored? Do you have no other activities more meaningful?

It's just an online discussion board, you know.

[SwampG8r]

48. Off topic but

Myself i see stalkerism as boring and not.from boredom.
In this day and age old school stalking is just boring. It shows a lack of originality and effort. It is time intensive so it appears.to be an act of boredom but the lack of effort other than in the following around betray a flatness of thinking that is just.....boring.
MMs real person identity is pretty freely available as he isnt hiding it very hard. He is active in minn dem activities openly and anyone who.was.i industrious could literally walk up to him unaware. A stalker with imagination could.deduce his address.and work stalker magic all under complete secrecy.
So stalkers.....bored or boring?

[polly7]

43. Then why do you expect others to 'take commands', as you did me? nt.

[Hekate]

44. Now that is a brilliant answer. "My number is legion."

[Nuclear Unicorn]

26. And a damned ugly tie, at that!

[MineralMan]

29. Whoa! Those are some amazing ties.

I have one with a hula dancer hand-painted on it. That I rarely wear it would be an understatement, but I have it on hand, just in case a situation arises where it is appropriate. Few such situations exist, sadly.

[SwampG8r]

49. I used to collect hand painted ties they rock. NT

[longship]

34. Love ya, MM!

And yes, there are some here who do read your posts. I happen to be one of them.

I support Bernie in the primary, and will enthusiastically support the nominee in November.

My best to you and your voice of sanity.


One is tempted to ask:
Do your posts come with a sanity clause?

Let's get an answer from Chico:

[MineralMan]

35. Sanity Claus? They're ain't no Sanity Clause.

That's just a silly myth!

[Flying Squirrel]

36. Awww, so I shouldn't bother volunteering for Bernie in WA because it will be over by then?

Pretty sure I heard that Obama would be toast on Super Tuesday too.

[Helen Borg]

37. Don't bother. Impossible.

[itsrobert]

47. No, Hillary won

n/t

[RoccoR5955]

52. By a gnat's testicle. n/t

[Jackie Wilson Said]

51. To be fair, it is a tie that 8 months ago was unheard of.

Even 6 months.