2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumDance around the campfire my Clinton Friends
For the hang-over of a stark reality starts in the morning.
Your candidate won by .35% to a person down 60 pts just 5 months ago.
Exit polls paint a harsh reality you must face.
You lost the youth vote (17-29) by 70%
You lost the 30-44 vote by 21%
You lost 'cares about people like me' by 52%
You lost 'honest and trustworthy' by 73%
This is from Iowa but are reflecting national polls on these questions.
Clinton will not win a GE with this level of disparity.
These numbers spell failure.
The best way to ensure a Democrat in the WH is to elect Bernie Sanders.
Just saying.
Source: http://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2016/primaries/democrat/iowa/exit/
stonecutter357
(12,697 posts)Starry Messenger
(32,342 posts)bec
(107 posts)He did not have to win this state. He wasn't even supposed to get as close as he did. That is the real story. Oh and by the way, winning your delegates by a coin toss is not winning. Just saying.
pnwmom
(108,994 posts)Before the caucus, I told everyone who would listen that caucuses were a terrible, unrepresentative, non-inclusive, and very messy way to pick delegates. (I know because my state has them.)
No one was worried because everyone seemed to think the caucus set-up advantaged Bernie.
Now they know. Caucuses stink, for many reasons. Every state should have a primary instead.
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)As of 7 AM EST, they have yet to count 12 districts. This could end up backfiring on her if she does not take in all of these. It could end up a dead tie, or even a loss.
kracer20
(199 posts)It isn't like there are still people huddle in a gym somewhere recounting. That part was over and done with long ago.
After that the numbers just need to be phoned in. I haven't heard how or why there could be a delay.
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)in_cog_ni_to
(41,600 posts)2008 NH Primary, she won by ONLY 3 points!
Last NH poll I saw Bernie was +31! He going to kick her ass in NH and TIED her in Iowa. Ms. Inevitable isn't so inevitable anymore.
PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE
pnwmom
(108,994 posts)Even though she came in third in Iowa. And even though Obama did so well in the South and among minority voters.
This time around, Hillary is much stronger among both those groups than Bernie is. She's in good shape. Things will get much easier for her once she gets out of rural heavily white states.
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)RiverLover
(7,830 posts)Not a win.
rdking647
(5,113 posts)only 3 non incumbents who won iowa ended up winning the general......
in 1992 clinton finished 3rd
in 1976 carter fininshed second
in 1980 bush won iowa
in 1988 dole won iowa
riversedge
(70,299 posts)bye.
azurnoir
(45,850 posts)InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!
riversedge
(70,299 posts)azurnoir
(45,850 posts)riversedge
(70,299 posts)KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)dragon. They'll be singing about this round the campfires 1000 years from now.
sorechasm
(631 posts)To stop the growing trend, Clinton's campaign method seems to be making speeches of delusional distraction. How is her speech last night going to help her persuade those who consider her untrustworthy?
Blue_Adept
(6,402 posts)Or they'll just sit at home?
Doesn't say much for them.
Katashi_itto
(10,175 posts)Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)they're inadequate.
dsc
(52,166 posts)or is that OK because it is OK to dis old people.
A Simple Game
(9,214 posts)saturnsring
(1,832 posts)having your rights taken away by 5-4. this bullshit is so short-sighted and childish.
shawn703
(2,702 posts)At least they wouldn't be so pro-business.
Skittles
(153,193 posts)A Simple Game
(9,214 posts)nominate. I will vote for the best candidate available, that is the only way the best candidate wins, if you vote for them.
Why are none of us talking about the Senate and why aren't we working just as hard on that, which should be our fail safe?
Oh wait because most of the Senate Dems are playing the Washington Generals game as well.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)We've been bleeding massive numbers of voters with this strategy. We're down to 30% of the electorate. Continuing to spout it is not going to reverse that trend.
saturnsring
(1,832 posts)childish and whiny and It'll give you the government you deserve unfortunately you fuck everyone else relying on you to vote
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Again, you need to give voters something to vote for. You need to give them a better future. "Protect the SCOTUS!!!" does not do that. It maintains the status-quo, and the status-quo is utterly failing all but the well-off.
You can hurl insults at the voters who we are failing, or we could try to help them. Which one is going to get more votes?
sulphurdunn
(6,891 posts)has no loyalty to political parties. They can as easily stay home as vote for a candidate they don't like. Whatever that says about them, it says much less about the leadership of the Democratic Party.
angrychair
(8,733 posts)It goes to the "electibility" Clinton supporters talk about. It goes to understanding your electorate and not dictating to them what you are "willing" to try for or compromise on.
On understanding voters and willing to at least fight for what they believe in and not what some poll or focus group says would be acceptable, Sanders is more electable.
left-of-center2012
(34,195 posts)They got really bruised and damaged by the tie vote in Iowa.
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)Helen Borg
(3,963 posts)But we are ready.
BigGLiberal
(102 posts)Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)She won't get lucky enough to win all 6 flips every time.
TBF
(32,090 posts)I thought it was metaphorical phrasing. Six coin tosses? You've got to be kidding me.
I have been a precinct head. You count signatures. You don't toss a coin. WTF?
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)Apparently in six precincts, there were either ties or disputes that ended up being unsolvable, and they resorted to coin tosses, and Hillary's folks won all six of the flips.
pugetres
(507 posts)when considering the demographics you shared.
But, that appears to be enough to get my husband's and my vote.
betsuni
(25,618 posts)RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)AFAIC, it ain't over until it's over, and with more votes to count this morning, it ain't over.
pnwmom
(108,994 posts)between the rest of his votes and Hillary's.
Empowerer
(3,900 posts)Oh, wait a minute . . .
Perhaps to be accurate, you should say (assuming your numbers are correct):
"You lost the youth vote in IOWA . . you lost the 30-44 vote in IOWA, etc."
A Simple Game
(9,214 posts)perhaps to be accurate, that describes Hillary! The white christian candidate could only tie in the white christian state to a non-christian.
My, my, it looks like this was Hillary's state and she didn't win it.
Empowerer
(3,900 posts)My point had nothing to do with the race or religion of the candidates. My point is that Iowa is not a diverse state and is not an accurate reflection of the mood or opinions of the rest of the country.
I have no doubt that if we had a 95% black state, the first primary would never be conducted there and, even if it were, no one would believe that the results prove anything about the way the entire country views an election.
But, of course, for many people, white people are "people" while everyone else is identified with a qualifier.
A Simple Game
(9,214 posts)Everything pointed to her getting a decisive win and she couldn't.
retrowire
(10,345 posts)Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)I saw her in action in Arkansas. She didn't like to mingle with the hoi polloi. Hell, she even worked as a corporate lawyer to fight against the little people.
joshcryer
(62,276 posts)My only hope is that they can keep it up and push this thing hard. Because it really is about that voting bloc. It really is.
pnwmom
(108,994 posts)were hoped for, or that Obama got.
joshcryer
(62,276 posts)I admit I doubted earlier tonight (I self-deleted the post because people were negging my cynical prediction just as things were looking good, I didn't need replies every 20 minutes in my inbox saying I was wrong; I know I was wrong and I'm glad I was wrong).
Response to pnwmom (Reply #30)
Name removed Message auto-removed
Gothmog
(145,554 posts)According to one of the experts for the Cook Report, Sanders needs to win big in Iowa to have a chance http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/sanders-needs-more-than-a-win-in-iowa-to-beat-clinton
Yet, even then, delegate allocation is proportional, which means that Sanders would have to begin winning by major margins to make the race a serious contest.
Wasserman estimates that according to his models, Sanders would "need to win 70 percent of Iowa's delegates and 63 percent of New Hampshire's delegates" to even "be on track" to stay competitive with Clinton in later states where demographically speaking, Clinton has shown she has more support. And in a states like Florida and South Carolina, Clinton leads in recent polls by 36 points and 19 points, respectively.
"It is not merely the delegate process that favors Hillary, it is the voters. She has earned the loyalty and support of communities of color, women, the LGBTQ community, environmentalists, and other vital parts of the Democratic coalition," says Democratic strategist Paul Begala, a Clinton supporter. "Bernie's coalition - so far - is more narrow. It is impressive in its energy and its passion, but it is, I think, more narrow."
The Cook Report has some good analysis
After New Hampshire, Sanders is headed to states that have less than 90+% white voting populations and Sanders is not appealing to African American or Hispanic voters. Super Tuesday will be a long day
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)I'm off to read the rest...
tk2kewl
(18,133 posts)The retirees who expect politicians to be heartless liars.
Aka "the get off my lawn" vote
NightWatcher
(39,343 posts)For Hillary to see it any other way than that is delusional.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)It was a narrow victory, but a victory none-the-less.
If the Bernie folks can parlay this enthusiams into, I dunno, taking back the HOUSE, and getting soemdemocratic socialists elected in there, maybe Bernie's campaign would acually be able to have a real long-term impact. Promises don't matter much unless you can actually get the votes to deliver on them.
Red Knight
(704 posts)It's political suicide for them.
She'll be reduced to executive actions mostly.
It will take a political revolution--and the will to really change things.
For Hillary--it will be business as usual.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)I think unless there is a fundamental alternation to the make-up of Congress, incremental change is the best model. Assuming we can make progress in taking seats in Congress, it will be some time before there is a big enough coalition to support the kind of large scale programs Sanders is proposing. Just one man's opinion, of course.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Or did you forget who actually blocked things like a public option in the ACA?
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)Which is why I've been giving this forum a miss mostly. I think the vitriol is all out of proportion to the situation. Having said that, I prefer Hillary's political style. But that's a matter of personal preference.
angrychair
(8,733 posts)You mean the "incremental changes" provided by DWS and the DNC? They have been doing a great job:
"Since 2008, the party has lost 69 House seats, 13 Senate seats, more than 900 state legislative seats, 30 state legislative chambers and 12 governorships."
I think we have had enough of the their "incremental changes" to last a lifetime.
Source: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/democrats-planning-multi-year-strategy-to-recapture-seats-in-congress/
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)In fact, I just told a DNC fundraiser that I will not donate to the DNC as long as she is the chair.
angrychair
(8,733 posts)But if your candidate gets elected you can count her former national co-chair being there another 4 years....just saying
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)He snagged just enough of the vote to prevent either candidate winning by 50%+1.
Thanks, Martin. You really showed us that you're a viable candidate last night!
Uponthegears
(1,499 posts)Don't you know Bernie's supporters are all misogynistic young white male hate-bots?
https://theintercept.com/2016/01/31/the-bernie-bros-narrative-a-cheap-false-campaign-tactic-masquerading-as-journalism-and-social-activism/
Sanders' support is deep and wide and Hillary knows it.
You saw it last night, especially when you looked at the individual county results. You heard it last night when Hillary snuck into her own Iowa rally and stood up and "evolved" into an advocate for universal health care.
Thanks for the post.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Grind out the tough ones.
Grind out the easy ones.
Grind. Grind. Grind.
Don 't be a sore loser.
artyteacher
(598 posts)MrMickeysMom
(20,453 posts)This is the way we all win.
Gamecock Lefty
(700 posts)We lost this block of votes, we lost that block of votes. Cant win GE, cant win GE, cant win GE.
Lets all say together - HILLARY WON IOWA.
All those blocks of votes we lost youd think theres nobody left to vote for Hillary and yet Grandpa Bernie still couldnt pull out a win.
First Bernie FAIL of 2016. Hope you enjoyed your vampire weekend.
onecaliberal
(32,894 posts)Stuckinthebush
(10,847 posts)It begins. The anger and dismay.
Math has been a tough subject for some Sanders supporters. I see it still is. Clinton has the math for both the primary and GE on her side.
mariawr
(348 posts)"Won by .35 to a person down 60 pts just 5 months ago. "
Keep dragging Hillary to the left ...she's going to be all out populist progressive to get out of the primary
joeybee12
(56,177 posts)Amazing how you can't accept a loss
NBachers
(17,136 posts)JustABozoOnThisBus
(23,364 posts)Nobody wins six coin tosses in a row without divine intervention.
She got God's endorsement.
Avalux
(35,015 posts)Sunlei
(22,651 posts)Ruined that camping trip for the rest of us. We had to take him to the emergency room to treat the burns on his back.
I don't think a divided party is a good thing at all, no matter what 'side' you're on.
JonathanRackham
(1,604 posts)and don't say he was wearing Captain Trump underwear either.
Matariki
(18,775 posts)That they are doing an ecstatic happy dance and insisting that three tenths of a percent (and 6 coin tosses) is a WIN for Clinton.
For all their bluster and confident citing of polls going into Iowa, this reaction is very telling.