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AZ Progressive

(3,411 posts)
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 05:32 AM Feb 2016

Spin it all you want Hillary supporters, but Bernie's performance was unprecedented

Bernie....

- had not just no support from the Democratic Party, but actually has become a virtual enemy of the Democratic Party establishment
- is going up against the Clinton Machine
- was hardly known before running for president and has had lack of familiarity and exposure due to lack of debates on primetime
- has been labeled a radical and "unelectable" by many

And he managed to virtually tie with Hillary.

Hillary, the Democratic Party establishment, and the media did a flurry of attacks within the past few days and all Hillary managed to do was a tie? That to me is a mediocre outcome for Hillary.

126 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Spin it all you want Hillary supporters, but Bernie's performance was unprecedented (Original Post) AZ Progressive Feb 2016 OP
And of course, the media has given ms Clinton about 10,000% more air truedelphi Feb 2016 #1
lolwut? JaneyVee Feb 2016 #3
All the kidz live in Iowa!!! Matariki Feb 2016 #5
By 0.35%!!! AZ Progressive Feb 2016 #6
Im looking forward to moving onto states that actually... JaneyVee Feb 2016 #12
A Field poll from a while ago had her up only 12 points in California jfern Feb 2016 #24
Diverse, like a white female plutocrat, raised in a wealthy Illinois suburb? merrily Feb 2016 #29
exactly-- her cred with minorities is bogus Fast Walker 52 Feb 2016 #63
Her cred with minorites, though, is different from claiming she is at a merrily Feb 2016 #107
^^^^^^^^^^^^^ n/t truedelphi Feb 2016 #106
By then the minority community will realize voting for Hillary is against their best interest. Enthusiast Feb 2016 #55
Spin, soin, spin cali Feb 2016 #7
And she won. JaneyVee Feb 2016 #13
Pretending to be enthusiastic? I can see right through it AZ Progressive Feb 2016 #16
Just by a hair on Vin Diesel's head. Nt Fantastic Anarchist Feb 2016 #40
And she won HUGE!!!!!11!!!11111111 coyote Feb 2016 #59
If a gnat's testicle is huge. n/t RoccoR5955 Feb 2016 #64
Ever listen to yourself? White states don't vote for whites? College kids don't vote for women? merrily Feb 2016 #28
Hillary doesn't look like she shares your enthusiasm for the win. Ed Suspicious Feb 2016 #68
She got 23 delegates and Sanders got 21. nm rhett o rick Feb 2016 #117
Iowa, the only state with college campuses..... daleanime Feb 2016 #126
The media also spun Bernie negative while spinning positive for Hillary. Enthusiast Feb 2016 #53
Screw them. RoccoR5955 Feb 2016 #65
Yup. tecelote Feb 2016 #2
Women trying to gain power is never "inevitable". JaneyVee Feb 2016 #4
Gad. What tripe. cali Feb 2016 #8
You dont think Bernie benefitted from GOP ads against her and NONE for him? JaneyVee Feb 2016 #11
Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 2016 #15
LOL OK. JaneyVee Feb 2016 #17
Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 2016 #20
Nope. Not posting it here. JaneyVee Feb 2016 #21
What's waiting? One of the two started at 80% and the other started at 3%. The one A Simple Game Feb 2016 #70
Yep. Resorting to lying and cheating because your challenger is honest and not for sale. GoneFishin Feb 2016 #33
He was NOT unattacked. Media and Republicans both did a job on him. merrily Feb 2016 #31
Poor Hillary. Fantastic Anarchist Feb 2016 #42
She was an underdog! The comeback kid! morningfog Feb 2016 #118
Tell me what ads Bernie has done that has attacked Hillary directly AZ Progressive Feb 2016 #10
Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 2016 #14
It is. JaneyVee Feb 2016 #18
Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 2016 #19
Thanks I know how it works. JaneyVee Feb 2016 #22
Why is it her turn? Fantastic Anarchist Feb 2016 #44
Because. SusanCalvin Feb 2016 #51
Because just like the Academy Awards MichaelSoE Feb 2016 #90
I thought it was funny. Fantastic Anarchist Feb 2016 #92
Oh, please. Democrats are dying to vote for a woman, just not Hillary. merrily Feb 2016 #30
+1! tecelote Feb 2016 #36
Right on MichaelSoE Feb 2016 #91
the democratic party just voted for Hillary. stonecutter357 Feb 2016 #41
Miss the point much? The poster is claiming being a woman was a problem in Iowa. merrily Feb 2016 #43
why are you lashingout at me? stonecutter357 Feb 2016 #46
Grief. n/t JTFrog Feb 2016 #94
The same amount of the Democratic Party just voted for Bernie. cui bono Feb 2016 #111
Looks to me like they just did. BigGLiberal Feb 2016 #54
Point is, Hillary is not losing Democratic votes because she is a woman. merrily Feb 2016 #56
+1 stonecutter357 Feb 2016 #39
Yes, it was. For positive reasons. He moved the Hortensis Feb 2016 #9
Some of my RW friends attack Bernie by saying he wants the country to be on government handouts. bulloney Feb 2016 #52
Or wave the Bible Cruz-style? Hortensis Feb 2016 #60
Indeed nil desperandum Feb 2016 #89
For the first time in history a woman has won the Iowa Caucuses. This is a big deal nt. ProudToBeLiberal Feb 2016 #23
+1. n/t pnwmom Feb 2016 #47
For the first time in history, a Jew has won delegates. This is a big deal too. (nt) jeff47 Feb 2016 #86
Bingo! peacebird Feb 2016 #103
I agree Sanders should be proud. I think you'd be surprised just how much media exposure Sanders had Hoyt Feb 2016 #25
Tyndall Report. As far as being on the Sunday shows, Hillary could have done the same, if she chose merrily Feb 2016 #45
Yep. merrily Feb 2016 #26
Bernie did well and his supporters should BlueMTexpat Feb 2016 #27
too many reasons why. hopemountain Feb 2016 #32
Well, it is a virtual tie, BlueMTexpat Feb 2016 #35
thank you, graciousness accepted. nt hopemountain Feb 2016 #37
In the final analysis, BlueMTexpat Feb 2016 #38
yes hopemountain Feb 2016 #108
Why supporters of the winner need to play multiple victim cards may be a better question. merrily Feb 2016 #34
Some of us don't like endless war and bailing out banksters. Sanders was not my first eridani Feb 2016 #50
I'm not bitter, I just do not want Hillary anywhere near the White House. Maedhros Feb 2016 #102
Please don't eat these MyNameGoesHere Feb 2016 #48
HA! This is spin! CSStrowbridge Feb 2016 #49
True florida08 Feb 2016 #57
This is a mediocre outcome for Hillary. Enthusiast Feb 2016 #58
Clinton lost by not winning! She was INEVITABLE, remember? 50-50 is a TIE. Off to NH to kick her in_cog_ni_to Feb 2016 #61
So this is Camp Sanders' playbook after state #1 Tarc Feb 2016 #62
Your candidate "won" literally by coin tosses. How can you possibly crow like this? RiverLover Feb 2016 #67
I anticipate an alert on this within the next hour... VulgarPoet Feb 2016 #83
COIN TOSS!!! cui bono Feb 2016 #114
Those are the rules, if you don't like em, go find another party Tarc Feb 2016 #84
LOL! cui bono Feb 2016 #115
pathetic joeybee12 Feb 2016 #66
Fyi florida08 Feb 2016 #69
It seems that the Clinton people really don't want us, if one goes Bohunk68 Feb 2016 #76
Yes that's the problem florida08 Feb 2016 #82
They already have. cui bono Feb 2016 #112
It isn't the Hillary supporters that scream about going 3rd party y'know Tarc Feb 2016 #85
That would kinda emphasize the point that deliberately antagonizing Sanders supporters jeff47 Feb 2016 #87
No one's going to beg for your vote Tarc Feb 2016 #97
And attacks really help make that decision. (nt) jeff47 Feb 2016 #98
That is entirely up to you Tarc Feb 2016 #99
That's the problem, we don't feel we deserve Hillary. BillZBubb Feb 2016 #105
We aren't there yet, are we? noiretextatique Feb 2016 #110
Reread my post. I did not say a word about 3rd party. Bohunk68 Feb 2016 #93
No, it's the establishment elite rich that are going 3rd party. Bloomberg for one. cui bono Feb 2016 #113
Clinton won on coin flips pengu Feb 2016 #71
truly. nt retrowire Feb 2016 #72
It's a pyrrhic victory n/t sarge43 Feb 2016 #73
Sounds like 2008 Renew Deal Feb 2016 #74
Like Bush v. Gore billhicks76 Feb 2016 #75
According to the Cook Report, Sanders needed to win 70% of the Iowa delegates to be competitive Gothmog Feb 2016 #77
He did need a big win Stuckinthebush Feb 2016 #80
What bullshit Art_from_Ark Feb 2016 #81
Bernie Sanders Needs More Than The Tie He Got In Iowa Gothmog Feb 2016 #100
A stupid analysis based on the same regimented thinking Kentonio Feb 2016 #124
Bernie's performance was indeed a remarkable success story. Orrex Feb 2016 #78
bernie lost...with all the hoopla....and the fact he did poorly among women voters beachbum bob Feb 2016 #79
Of course he did. Clintonistas are making this a gender thing and doing it quite well. Bohunk68 Feb 2016 #96
Spin from both sides is getting tiresome Dem2 Feb 2016 #88
There's a difference between spin and analysis. n/t cui bono Feb 2016 #116
It's spin when the other side does it! Dem2 Feb 2016 #125
Except for the time that guy wildeyed Feb 2016 #95
Exactly. Bobbie Jo Feb 2016 #120
it was an admirable second-place DrDan Feb 2016 #101
"has become a virtual enemy of the Democratic Party" ecstatic Feb 2016 #104
You got it backwards. frylock Feb 2016 #122
I said "Democratic Party Establishment" AZ Progressive Feb 2016 #123
Undeniable colsohlibgal Feb 2016 #109
The Clinton spin is as if winning Iowa meant more than splitting the states 44 delegates. rhett o rick Feb 2016 #119
It's possible that Bernie may have gotten more votes than Hillary in Iowa as well. Uncle Joe Feb 2016 #121

truedelphi

(32,324 posts)
1. And of course, the media has given ms Clinton about 10,000% more air
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 05:35 AM
Feb 2016

Time than they have given Bernie.

This is a major loss for Hillary, regardless of how CNN and the other Corporate hack controlled "networks" are playing it.

 

JaneyVee

(19,877 posts)
3. lolwut?
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 05:38 AM
Feb 2016

It is a state 95% white and filled with college campuses, she won after coming in 3rd in 2008. A win is a win. And she won.

 

JaneyVee

(19,877 posts)
12. Im looking forward to moving onto states that actually...
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 05:55 AM
Feb 2016

Represent the diversity of our Democratic base.

jfern

(5,204 posts)
24. A Field poll from a while ago had her up only 12 points in California
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 06:10 AM
Feb 2016

I wonder what it is now. California is 2nd only to Hawaii in the lowest percentage of non Hispanic whites.

merrily

(45,251 posts)
107. Her cred with minorites, though, is different from claiming she is at a
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 11:02 PM
Feb 2016

disadvantage of some kind with white voters.

Enthusiast

(50,983 posts)
55. By then the minority community will realize voting for Hillary is against their best interest.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 07:35 AM
Feb 2016
The truth is getting out. Against a united media the truth is slipping out.
 

cali

(114,904 posts)
7. Spin, soin, spin
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 05:41 AM
Feb 2016

Hillary is as close to being an incumbent as possible. She had every advantage.

daleanime

(17,796 posts)
126. Iowa, the only state with college campuses.....
Wed Feb 3, 2016, 10:11 AM
Feb 2016
thanks, it's always good to start the day with a great laugh.

Enthusiast

(50,983 posts)
53. The media also spun Bernie negative while spinning positive for Hillary.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 07:32 AM
Feb 2016

We know what the evil fucks did. CNN and PBS among the worst.

tecelote

(5,122 posts)
2. Yup.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 05:37 AM
Feb 2016

The chosen one is not as inevitable as they thought and the biggest problem for her now is that Bernie will be heard.

The more people hear Bernie, the more he surges to the top.

The numbers may show a close count but really, Bernie won big time!

 

JaneyVee

(19,877 posts)
4. Women trying to gain power is never "inevitable".
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 05:40 AM
Feb 2016

Hillary is the only candidate who was getting slammed with ads by every single candidate on both sides...and still won.

 

JaneyVee

(19,877 posts)
11. You dont think Bernie benefitted from GOP ads against her and NONE for him?
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 05:53 AM
Feb 2016

He went this entire primary going unattacked while Hillary faced the onslaught.

Response to JaneyVee (Reply #11)

Response to JaneyVee (Reply #17)

A Simple Game

(9,214 posts)
70. What's waiting? One of the two started at 80% and the other started at 3%. The one
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 08:07 AM
Feb 2016

that started at 80% had to call a 50-50 tie a win. Tell me again who won?

You're right though, some don't even know what's waiting for them.

GoneFishin

(5,217 posts)
33. Yep. Resorting to lying and cheating because your challenger is honest and not for sale.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 06:33 AM
Feb 2016

Because without the lies they got nothing.

merrily

(45,251 posts)
31. He was NOT unattacked. Media and Republicans both did a job on him.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 06:31 AM
Feb 2016

Paid ads are not the only way people attack a candidate, but he has had some of those as well.

Response to JaneyVee (Reply #4)

Response to JaneyVee (Reply #18)

MichaelSoE

(1,576 posts)
90. Because just like the Academy Awards
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 11:48 AM
Feb 2016

the system is run by the man ... and the man thinks it's a woman's turn. I mean ... oh, you know what I mean. Maybe I'll just self delete this in a few minutes.

merrily

(45,251 posts)
43. Miss the point much? The poster is claiming being a woman was a problem in Iowa.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 06:46 AM
Feb 2016

FYI, the Democratic Party just voted for Bernie, as well.

merrily

(45,251 posts)
56. Point is, Hillary is not losing Democratic votes because she is a woman.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 07:37 AM
Feb 2016

That particular victim card needs to be shelved.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
9. Yes, it was. For positive reasons. He moved the
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 05:42 AM
Feb 2016

country forward, opening eyes to possibilities offered by left-wing solutions to problems created by right-wing ideology.

You know, real progressives don't spend their time slogging around in emotional mud fights, they look forward and work for big solutions to big problems. Are you progressive as your name suggests, or just a partisan?

bulloney

(4,113 posts)
52. Some of my RW friends attack Bernie by saying he wants the country to be on government handouts.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 07:30 AM
Feb 2016

Free college education. Free health care. Free everything. They mock it every chance they get.

Of course, it's not free and Sanders is up front about it. But to my RW friends mocking the "free" stuff from Sanders, I guess they just want the status quo, where our tax dollars pay to bail out the crooked and unethical Wall Street banks and give the Pentagon a blank check to wage war on any country that doesn't walk, talk and chew gum they way we think they should. I guess that's what they want in a POTUS.

No thank you. If we're going to get change, we have to vote for it. I get so tired of people bitching about how things are but they keep voting the people back into power that cause the problems. And it's because of their political party. If they're a Repub, they'd vote for that candidate no matter what. Around here all that candidate has to do is say he or she is "pro life" and "supports the Second Amendment" and be a total waste of a Congressional seat once they're elected. They literally do nothing. Congress has an approval rating of what? Around 14%? But more than 95% of the incumbents are re-elected? There's a major cognitive disconnect here.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
60. Or wave the Bible Cruz-style?
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 07:48 AM
Feb 2016

People should be AFRAID of him, but they same people latch on to anyone who will sing their church songs, no matter how evil, and because of his actions I do believe Cruz is dangerous and should not be trusted with even a little power.

There is no end to the cognitive disconnects for those who do not respect truth, whatever it is. Right wingers always attack us as moochers who believe we've found ways to rig the system so we don't have to pay for anything. They believe that as happily as some people enjoy insisting Hillary is conservative. At some point people actually come to believe their many irresponsible indulgences and turn into political idiots.

But -- progressivism. It's terribly important that we remember that bettering our nation is our goal. All our Democratic candidates are good people working for the people. We should be proud of them all, and of ourselves for supporting them.

nil desperandum

(654 posts)
89. Indeed
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 11:04 AM
Feb 2016
I get so tired of people bitching about how things are but they keep voting the people back into power that cause the problems.

That comment is spot on what's wrong in the USA today. We give congress a 12% approval rating and put 90+% of incumbents back into the job every election cycle as if that will somehow make things better the next time around....


 

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)
25. I agree Sanders should be proud. I think you'd be surprised just how much media exposure Sanders had
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 06:14 AM
Feb 2016

if you took the time to look.

merrily

(45,251 posts)
45. Tyndall Report. As far as being on the Sunday shows, Hillary could have done the same, if she chose
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 06:47 AM
Feb 2016

BlueMTexpat

(15,373 posts)
27. Bernie did well and his supporters should
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 06:21 AM
Feb 2016

be very proud. For a self-described Democratic Socialist, his performance in Iowa is indeed unprecedented. And yes, he came within a hair.

But why must you be so bitter about this unprecedented and symbolically historical victory for a woman?

BlueMTexpat

(15,373 posts)
35. Well, it is a virtual tie,
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 06:34 AM
Feb 2016

not an actual one, at least per the IA Democratic party.

But have it your way if you must. Clinton supporters can afford to be gracious.

merrily

(45,251 posts)
34. Why supporters of the winner need to play multiple victim cards may be a better question.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 06:34 AM
Feb 2016

No one is bitter, but Hillary supporters have been posting ridiculous stuff for some reason.

eridani

(51,907 posts)
50. Some of us don't like endless war and bailing out banksters. Sanders was not my first
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 07:18 AM
Feb 2016

--choice, but Warren decided not to run. Ironic that the woman candidate does not advocate for the best polices for women. She was even gutless enough to call the fake Planned Parenthood video "disturbing."

 

Maedhros

(10,007 posts)
102. I'm not bitter, I just do not want Hillary anywhere near the White House.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 08:59 PM
Feb 2016

I think she will be a horrible President.

CSStrowbridge

(267 posts)
49. HA! This is spin!
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 07:15 AM
Feb 2016

HA! This is spin.

I was told over and over again that the M$M was pushing propaganda when they showed a poll that had Hillary Clinton ahead and every polls that showed Sanders in the lead was proof that he was assured victory.

florida08

(4,106 posts)
57. True
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 07:41 AM
Feb 2016

He's working against the DNC and the corporate Oligarch. So yes Bernie sent a message "we're coming". Hillary's message? Thanks. The coin toss thing was ridiculous.

Enthusiast

(50,983 posts)
58. This is a mediocre outcome for Hillary.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 07:42 AM
Feb 2016

For all their costly dishonest efforts the ENTRENCHED INTERESTS could not destroy Bernie.

This is a clear loss for the status quo.

in_cog_ni_to

(41,600 posts)
61. Clinton lost by not winning! She was INEVITABLE, remember? 50-50 is a TIE. Off to NH to kick her
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 07:50 AM
Feb 2016

Arse from here to Timbuktu!

There are still Iowa precincts that haven't reported and one delegate left.

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

Tarc

(10,476 posts)
62. So this is Camp Sanders' playbook after state #1
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 07:54 AM
Feb 2016

Stamp feet, whine, and toss petty insults. Lovely.

The only outstanding question is, will they get more and more shrill as the losses mount, or just fade?

RiverLover

(7,830 posts)
67. Your candidate "won" literally by coin tosses. How can you possibly crow like this?
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 08:02 AM
Feb 2016

It really does feel like you guys are republicans.

VulgarPoet

(2,872 posts)
83. I anticipate an alert on this within the next hour...
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 08:57 AM
Feb 2016

...every time I say something to that effect, I wind up getting lucky jury draws.

Tarc

(10,476 posts)
84. Those are the rules, if you don't like em, go find another party
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 09:24 AM
Feb 2016

It really does feel like you guys are children

florida08

(4,106 posts)
69. Fyi
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 08:07 AM
Feb 2016

Ted Cruz won. Hillary will split the delegates with Bernie. Nothing to brag about. This is going to a long campaign. Sportsmanship should be foremost as Hillary just might need Bernie supporters later.

Bohunk68

(1,364 posts)
76. It seems that the Clinton people really don't want us, if one goes
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 08:32 AM
Feb 2016

by their meme that Bernie supporters are not really Democrats. Ergo, they don't need nor do they want our votes come GE time.

florida08

(4,106 posts)
82. Yes that's the problem
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 08:54 AM
Feb 2016

If she or they get cocky they will push progressive votes away. Am Not sure I can vote for another corporate POTUS anyway.

cui bono

(19,926 posts)
112. They already have.
Wed Feb 3, 2016, 12:51 AM
Feb 2016

They've also pushed me to rec threads that show Hillary in a negative light. I used to skip those when this started but the lying, the smears, the attempts at swiftboating Bernie, the sites they started just to spew vile hatred at Bernie and his supporters, all of that plus their substanceless smarmy immature posts made me start reccing and posting away.

And they still think they have taken the high road somehow.

.

Tarc

(10,476 posts)
85. It isn't the Hillary supporters that scream about going 3rd party y'know
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 09:27 AM
Feb 2016

That is all on some in the Sanders camp I'm afraid. There have been several high-profile Sanders DU'ers banned over the last few months, and over in his DU group they not only crow about it but pin their off-site anti-Hillary rants.

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
87. That would kinda emphasize the point that deliberately antagonizing Sanders supporters
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 11:00 AM
Feb 2016

Last edited Tue Feb 2, 2016, 02:12 PM - Edit history (1)

is not a terribly good idea.

Weren't the Clinton supporters supposed to be the ones who understand how politics works?

Tarc

(10,476 posts)
97. No one's going to beg for your vote
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 02:11 PM
Feb 2016

If you think Hill's coming to y'all on bended knee in the Fall, that ain't gonna happen

You'll have to decide for yourself of the 2 eventual candidates which one will be better for leading the country.

Tarc

(10,476 posts)
99. That is entirely up to you
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 02:23 PM
Feb 2016
"In a democracy people get the leaders they deserve"

- Joseph de Maistre

BillZBubb

(10,650 posts)
105. That's the problem, we don't feel we deserve Hillary.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 09:56 PM
Feb 2016

Settling for a center-right corporatist with more baggage than a fully loaded Boeing isn't too exciting.

We deserve better.

Bohunk68

(1,364 posts)
93. Reread my post. I did not say a word about 3rd party.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:08 PM
Feb 2016

If you are going to comment, at least get it right.

cui bono

(19,926 posts)
113. No, it's the establishment elite rich that are going 3rd party. Bloomberg for one.
Wed Feb 3, 2016, 12:53 AM
Feb 2016

Because they are afraid of Bernie, the real Democrat. And they don't think Hillary can beat him.

.

pengu

(462 posts)
71. Clinton won on coin flips
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 08:09 AM
Feb 2016

If they want to celebrate that, that's fine with me. At the beginning of November she was up 30 points, and she won by nailing 6 out of 7 coin flips. If Bernie wins 4 of those 7, he wins Iowa.

I'm feeling good. I would have been ecstatic if he won, but this is still light years ahead of what he needed to make this a race.

Gothmog

(145,562 posts)
77. According to the Cook Report, Sanders needed to win 70% of the Iowa delegates to be competitive
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 08:34 AM
Feb 2016

According to one of the experts for the Cook Report, Sanders needs to win big in Iowa to have a chance http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/sanders-needs-more-than-a-win-in-iowa-to-beat-clinton

As David Wasserman wrote in the Cook Political Report last week, "98 percent of pledged Democratic delegates will come from states with lower shares of liberal whites than Iowa and New Hampshire." That is a big problem for Sanders who has yet to prove he can expand his base....

Yet, even then, delegate allocation is proportional, which means that Sanders would have to begin winning by major margins to make the race a serious contest.

Wasserman estimates that according to his models, Sanders would "need to win 70 percent of Iowa's delegates and 63 percent of New Hampshire's delegates" to even "be on track" to stay competitive with Clinton in later states where demographically speaking, Clinton has shown she has more support. And in a states like Florida and South Carolina, Clinton leads in recent polls by 36 points and 19 points, respectively.

"It is not merely the delegate process that favors Hillary, it is the voters. She has earned the loyalty and support of communities of color, women, the LGBTQ community, environmentalists, and other vital parts of the Democratic coalition," says Democratic strategist Paul Begala, a Clinton supporter. "Bernie's coalition - so far - is more narrow. It is impressive in its energy and its passion, but it is, I think, more narrow."

The Cook Report has some good analysis

After New Hampshire, Sanders is headed to states that have less than 90+% white voting populations and Sanders is not appealing to African American or Hispanic voters. Super Tuesday will be a long day

Stuckinthebush

(10,847 posts)
80. He did need a big win
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 08:40 AM
Feb 2016

And yes, Super Tuesday will be a long day for him.

He will win NH, of course, but after that he isn't competitive. He really needed a big Iowa win to give him any chance via momentum.

Art_from_Ark

(27,247 posts)
81. What bullshit
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 08:41 AM
Feb 2016

Bernie needed only to give the ordained candidate a run for her $$$$$$$$money$$$$$$$$$, which he did, admirably. 50-50.

Gothmog

(145,562 posts)
100. Bernie Sanders Needs More Than The Tie He Got In Iowa
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 08:38 PM
Feb 2016

Last edited Wed Feb 3, 2016, 01:54 PM - Edit history (1)

Sanders is not polling well in states with less than 90+% white populations and so Sanders needed to do much better in Iowa http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-needs-more-than-the-tie-he-got-in-iowa/

We’ve said for months that Iowa and New Hampshire are two of the best states for Sanders demographically. You can see why in the entrance poll taken in Iowa. Sanders won very liberal voters over Clinton by 19 percentage points, but he lost self-identified somewhat liberals and moderates to Clinton by 6 percentage points and 23 percentage points, respectively. That’s bad for Sanders because even though 68 percent of Iowa Democratic caucus-goers identified as liberal this year, only 47 percent of Democratic primary voters nationwide did so in 2008. We’ll need to see if Sanders can do better in a state that is more moderate than Iowa before thinking he can win the nomination.

Iowa and New Hampshire also lack nonwhite voters, who form a huge part of the Democratic base. Can Sanders win over some of these voters? Clinton has held a lead among nonwhites of nearly 40 percentage points in national polls. In Nevada, which votes after the New Hampshire primary, the electorate for the Democratic caucuses in 2008 was 15 percent Hispanic and 15 percent black. After Nevada comes South Carolina, where a majority of Democratic voters will be black. Our polls-only forecast in South Carolina gives Clinton a 94 percent chance to win, and our polls-plus forecast gives her a 96 percent chance to win.

Clinton will continue to be a favorite for the Democratic nomination if she continues to hold a large lead among nonwhite voters and basically breaks even with white voters, as she did in Iowa. Sanders, meanwhile, needs to cut into Clinton’s lead among nonwhites and expand his support among white voters beyond what he won in Iowa. If he does that, he’ll put himself in contention to win the nomination. If he doesn’t, he’ll continue to be an underdog.
 

Kentonio

(4,377 posts)
124. A stupid analysis based on the same regimented thinking
Wed Feb 3, 2016, 06:02 AM
Feb 2016

That has left the media looking out of touch throughout this whole race so far.

Sanders is running a populist insurgency campaign that started out with almost zero name recognition, almost no funding and no established organization. He's pushed out roots into all the states via his now massive volunteer base and has been wise enough to supplement that with paid staffers as his available funding grew, but by necessity this has been a fairly organic process. The success or failure of his campaign has been pinned firmly on success in the opening two states (and yes a virtual tie in Iowa is very much a success). He's invested hugely into these areas because if he didn't breakthrough there the race is done.

Now that Iowa is done and once NH landslides, he is in an excellent position to go all in for Nevada and SC on the back of the new media attention and THEN we see whether he has the ability to make major gains with Latinos and AA voters. Anyone assuming those voting groups are naturally locked in for Clinton is completely ignoring the path his campaign has taken through the process.

Don't get me wrong, his nomination is still more unlikely than it is likely. I'm just sick of hearing these supposed 'political experts' ignoring all the actual evidence from the last year and just repeating the same soundbites to each other.

 

beachbum bob

(10,437 posts)
79. bernie lost...with all the hoopla....and the fact he did poorly among women voters
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 08:35 AM
Feb 2016

once the primaries move away from these first small states...its all over....he did as well as he could expect.

Bohunk68

(1,364 posts)
96. Of course he did. Clintonistas are making this a gender thing and doing it quite well.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:11 PM
Feb 2016

Amongst Millennials, he got amost 80% of their vote.

Dem2

(8,168 posts)
88. Spin from both sides is getting tiresome
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 11:04 AM
Feb 2016

It was a fun night not knowing who was the technical "winner" when I went to bed late last night.

Since the delegates are essentially tied, it's time to move on to the next voting day, which looks like a handy win for Bernie.

ecstatic

(32,731 posts)
104. "has become a virtual enemy of the Democratic Party"
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 09:09 PM
Feb 2016

Why is he running to be the leader of a party he hates? Why didn't he run on an independent/ socialist ticket?

colsohlibgal

(5,275 posts)
109. Undeniable
Wed Feb 3, 2016, 12:21 AM
Feb 2016

MSNBC worked overtime to promote her and ignore Bernie, DSM and the party machine did all it could to tilt it HRC's way. She had Wall Street big money in her pocket.

We'll see - if this win holds it will be razor thin, a virtual tie. In Iowa of all places. Let us see how New Hampshire comes out, see how they spin that.

It just strikes me as strange that everyday people are fine with supporting a candidate in the pocket of Wall Street



 

rhett o rick

(55,981 posts)
119. The Clinton spin is as if winning Iowa meant more than splitting the states 44 delegates.
Wed Feb 3, 2016, 01:01 AM
Feb 2016

Clinton got 23 and Sanders 21. And that's it. Winning Iowa only got Clinton a 2 vote lead.

Uncle Joe

(58,420 posts)
121. It's possible that Bernie may have gotten more votes than Hillary in Iowa as well.
Wed Feb 3, 2016, 01:05 AM
Feb 2016


Iowa's nightmare revisited: Was correct winner called?

Source: Des Moines Register

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141335242



I can understand Republicans hating democracy but it's particularly disappointing when Democrats follow suit.

Thanks for the thread, AZ Progressive.
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