2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumRead this OP from 7 months ago and you'll see what we have accomplished (and answered)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10026883414Star Member brooklynite (27,882 posts)
Explain to me why Bernie Sanders isn't 2016's Ron Paul...
I've asked before for someone to give me a hard-nosed estimate of how Bernie Sanders wins a national Primary (we'll set the General Election aside for now), and all I've gotten is variations on "he resonates with the struggling 99%". From what I see, the Sanders campaign is essentially following the path that Paul followed four years ago: a candidate who says what's on his mind, generates large crowds of voters disaffected from their default Party, and develops a solid floor of 15-20% in polling but never breaks a ceiling of 20-25%. He never generates a lot of financial support; enough to travel with his support team to make speeches and participate in debates, but not enough to build in the kind of staffing that Clinton and Obama had in 2008, and certainly not enough to spend on TV advertising. Come voting time, he does relatively well in Iowa (21-22%) in Iowa and New Hampshire, but never wins except in a handful of smaller Caucus States (ME, AK, NV). He doesn't have the staffing to play in multiple Super Tuesday States, or large population/large Geography States. Because his operating costs are low, there's nothing stopping him from continuing on through the Convention, but he doesn't end up with a net of more than 10-15% nationally.
So what am I missing?
tex-wyo-dem
(3,190 posts)But it also says a lot about how much Sanders, his staff and supporters have accomplished in a very short period of time.
Hillary, on the other hand, has been campaigning for well over a decade, has the name recognition, the accolades, the connections, the Clinton political machine, the endorsements, every advantage a candidate could hope for.
Yet a rumpled older senator from a tiny state, who looks more like a college professor than a politician, who started running for president just last spring with nothing of a political organization to speak of, is giving her a run for her money.
Very telling.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)dismissive and insulting posts.
Bonobo
(29,257 posts)neverforget
(9,436 posts)Bonobo
(29,257 posts)tk2kewl
(18,133 posts)this was all i posted:
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)Bonobo
(29,257 posts)This is NOT an unattainable pipe dream.
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)John Poet
(2,510 posts)and this proves just how "clueless" they are.
Bonobo
(29,257 posts)And I don't know if brooklynite is part of any establishment or not.
The point is that to know where you ARE, you must also know where you have BEEN.
John Poet
(2,510 posts)from the beginning! Tonight was a grand accomplishment for Bernie.
Sorry, that poster in question just gets up my craw. Pretty sure he's the one that's bragged on his connections with party bigwigs, and namedropped people he's "had dinner with"... He thinks he's better than all the rest of us.
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)Thurston Howell the 4th
cali
(114,904 posts)artislife
(9,497 posts)He doesn't see the glean off the tines of the pitchforks.
loyalsister
(13,390 posts)I assumed he mostly decided to run in order to move the debate left, but wasn't going to make a serious effort. He is impressive in the way he responds to and respects his supporters along with voters who may not be. He's a much stronger candidate than I anticipated.