I for one can't wait to see the blowback after Bernie's success tonight

[Fearless]

This is going to be HILLarious.

The twisting and writhing of the Hillary camp has already begun online.

Goal post moving, bait and switch, selective memory, and several other methods of deception are being used to paint this in her extreme favor.

I can't wait to see what bull shit they come up with next.

[thereismore]

1. Superdelegates! (echoes of 2008). nt

[Autumn]

2. Look where we are today and where we were back in April .

[Gothmog]

4. Iowa was a must win for Sanders

Sanders is only polling well in four states where the voting population is 90+% and if Sanders can not win in Iowa then he is in trouble in South Carolina and the Super Tuesday states http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/02/01/iowa_caucus_stakes_for_hillary_clinton_and_bernie_sanders.html

For Bernie, meanwhile, a Hillary victory would be an undeniable blow. With the exception of New Hampshire and his home state of Vermont, the Hawkeye State—with a Democratic electorate that skews white and liberal—represents the friendliest terrain on the map for Sanders. If Bernie can’t win in Iowa, Clinton and her allies will have no problem brushing off a Sanders win in New Hampshire next week as little more than the result of the senator being a near-native son in the Granite State. Sanders, then, would be in need of a win elsewhere to reset the race—and soon—but won’t have any obvious place to turn.

[Fearless]

5. Ohh the new meme came to me! Swell!!

Reality check... Iowa was leaning Hillary from the beginning. That it was even CLOSE never mind within 2 TENTHS OF ONE PERCENT, 3 delegate votes, so far... is a testament to how well Bernie has done so far and how viable he will be heading into NH.

Good day.

[Gothmog]

6. I hate to break it to you but Sanders needed to win 70% of Iowa delegates to be competitive

According to one of the experts for the Cook Report, Sanders needs to win big in Iowa to have a chance http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/sanders-needs-more-than-a-win-in-iowa-to-beat-clinton

As David Wasserman wrote in the Cook Political Report last week, "98 percent of pledged Democratic delegates will come from states with lower shares of liberal whites than Iowa and New Hampshire." That is a big problem for Sanders who has yet to prove he can expand his base....

Yet, even then, delegate allocation is proportional, which means that Sanders would have to begin winning by major margins to make the race a serious contest.

Wasserman estimates that according to his models, Sanders would "need to win 70 percent of Iowa's delegates and 63 percent of New Hampshire's delegates" to even "be on track" to stay competitive with Clinton in later states where demographically speaking, Clinton has shown she has more support. And in a states like Florida and South Carolina, Clinton leads in recent polls by 36 points and 19 points, respectively.

"It is not merely the delegate process that favors Hillary, it is the voters. She has earned the loyalty and support of communities of color, women, the LGBTQ community, environmentalists, and other vital parts of the Democratic coalition," says Democratic strategist Paul Begala, a Clinton supporter. "Bernie's coalition - so far - is more narrow. It is impressive in its energy and its passion, but it is, I think, more narrow."

The Cook Report has some good analysis.

Sanders did not come close to the 70% number

[Fearless]

7. BWHAHAHAHAHA! This is HILLarious!

[Gothmog]

9. It is called math and demographics

Sanders is only polling well in states with 90+% white voting populations. These states have 2% of the delegates. There is not a clear path to victory for Sanders

[Fearless]

10. It's called grasping at straws while putting all your eggs in one basket

[Odin2005]

12. That will change when the Bernie charm machine gets into high gear.

That polling mainly reflects the trust people have for civil rights leaders and organizations that have in reality become tools of the party establishment.

[Gothmog]

13. I have yet to see any polling that shows that Sanders is doing better with African American voters

The states with 90+% white voters only account for 2% of the available delegates and Sanders needs to broaden his support to be competitive. I have yet to see any evidence of this

[KingCharlemagne]

14. Problem is you are using a thimble to bail out a sinking ocean liner. Now

it is statistically possible . . . if the FRIGGIN' LAWS OF PHYSICS ARE REVERSED! Give me a thimble large enough and I too could right the foundering SS Hillary.

[Gothmog]

18. Bernie Sanders Needs More Than The Tie He Got In Iowa

Last edited Wed Feb 3, 2016, 01:52 PM - Edit history (1)

Sanders is not polling well in states with less than 90+% white populations and so Sanders needed to do much better in Iowa http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-needs-more-than-the-tie-he-got-in-iowa/

We’ve said for months that Iowa and New Hampshire are two of the best states for Sanders demographically. You can see why in the entrance poll taken in Iowa. Sanders won very liberal voters over Clinton by 19 percentage points, but he lost self-identified somewhat liberals and moderates to Clinton by 6 percentage points and 23 percentage points, respectively. That’s bad for Sanders because even though 68 percent of Iowa Democratic caucus-goers identified as liberal this year, only 47 percent of Democratic primary voters nationwide did so in 2008. We’ll need to see if Sanders can do better in a state that is more moderate than Iowa before thinking he can win the nomination.

Iowa and New Hampshire also lack nonwhite voters, who form a huge part of the Democratic base. Can Sanders win over some of these voters? Clinton has held a lead among nonwhites of nearly 40 percentage points in national polls. In Nevada, which votes after the New Hampshire primary, the electorate for the Democratic caucuses in 2008 was 15 percent Hispanic and 15 percent black. After Nevada comes South Carolina, where a majority of Democratic voters will be black. Our polls-only forecast in South Carolina gives Clinton a 94 percent chance to win, and our polls-plus forecast gives her a 96 percent chance to win.

Clinton will continue to be a favorite for the Democratic nomination if she continues to hold a large lead among nonwhite voters and basically breaks even with white voters, as she did in Iowa. Sanders, meanwhile, needs to cut into Clinton’s lead among nonwhites and expand his support among white voters beyond what he won in Iowa. If he does that, he’ll put himself in contention to win the nomination. If he doesn’t, he’ll continue to be an underdog.

[KingCharlemagne]

19. I'll wager Sanders is polling well in Wisconsin and Minnesota, given their strong storied

progressive traditions. And Illinois which has a proud Socialist heritage dating back to the late 19th Century.

[Gothmog]

20. From Nate Silver's website

There is a link to Wisconsin polling http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-happens-if-bernie-sanders-wins-iowa/

But there are two reasons to think that Hillary Clinton, like her husband, could defy the prevailing trend. One is the issue I mentioned earlier: Sanders’s success in Iowa and New Hampshire might be a reflection of their Sanders-friendly demographics rather than a harbinger of Clinton’s doom. That seems to match the polling we’re seeing in other states, where (for instance) Sanders is doing relatively well in Wisconsin, which also has plenty of white liberals, but struggling in North Carolina, which has fewer.

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Here is 538"s chart on Wisconsin
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/wisconsin-democratic/

[Odin2005]

11. The Hillarians got their new talking points from DWS, already.

That was fast.

[RobertEarl]

8. I read this tonight

"What will you do if Hillary wins by double digits"

Bwahahahaha

[VulgarPoet]

15. Right now, seems the blowback is "shit on millennials".

[Fearless]

17. That always to be true you're right

That and goal post moving.

[4dsc]

16. Hillary already sounds like Bernie on stage

so I guess its a victory for Bernie.