2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum“47%” Was Bad for Romney; Ryan Has Been Deadly
Noam Scheiber
The conventional wisdom on Obamas recent surge is that its due largely to Mitt Romneys 47% disaster, and theres clearly something to this. If nothing else, its given Team Obama grist for an absolutely devastating ad.
But its worth pointing out another dynamic thats been overlooked here: The escalating disaster that is Paul Ryan. At the time of his selection, a number of pundits argued Ryans strategic benefits, suggesting he would boost Romney by energizing conservatives, or by allowing Romney to run as the candidate of big ideas, or that he would at least be the partys best defender of the Medicare plan Romney was going to have to defend whether he wanted to or not. This seemed like a stretch at the timeafter all, Ryans Medicare plan proved to be a massive liability the one time voters weighed in on it. But who could say for sure?
Well, fast forward a month-and-a-half and the numbers look pretty persuasive. This week the New York Times released a set of polls, conducted by Quinnipiac, assessing the state of the race in Ohio and Florida. The top-line numbers were jaw-dropping enough: Obamas lead in Ohio grew from six to ten over the last month, and from three to nine in Florida. (Its better to focus on the change here than the magnitude, which is highly sensitive to polling methodology.) But once you look at the internal numbers, theyre even less kind to Romney. More to the point, they suggest Ryan has done enormous damage to the ticket.
Back in late August, Obama led Romney on the question of who would handle Medicare better by 8 points in Florida and 10 points in Ohio; now hes up 15 in Florida and 16 in Ohio. And the problems are especially acute among senior citizens, a group Obama has traditionally struggled with. A month ago, Obama was down 13 points in Florida among people 65 and older; today hes up 4. On the specific question of Medicare, Obama was down 4 points among Florida seniors in August; today hes up 5 points. (The Quinnipiac Poll re-shuffled its age-groups between August and September, so you wont be make apples-to-apples comparisons by eyeballing their crosstabs. But the super-kind people at Quinnipiac re-reshuffled them for me.)
more
http://www.tnr.com/blog/107829/47-was-bad-romney-ryan-has-been-deadly#
CaliforniaPeggy
(149,699 posts)I'm lovin' this!
aletier_v
(1,773 posts)Yea!
Send Ryan to Burger King and let him LIVE the Ayn Rand lifestyle!!!!
Make sure it's the Burger King in Somalia so Lyin' Ryan can get the Super Deluxe Galt Experience.
No DUplicitous DUpe
(2,994 posts)I guessed that would be the result of picking Ryan, and "called the race for the president" right after the pick.
Who knew every day since, there would be a new mis-step.
The debates won't change Mitt's downward trajectory, that cake is baked.
Raster
(20,998 posts)Cha
(297,655 posts)Zambero
(8,968 posts)Four years ago Sarah Palin also energized conservatives. But for every wingnut she had floating around on an adrenalin high, 2 to 3 swing voters threw up and went for Obama. Similar phenomena this year. Thank you, Paul Ryan.
Baitball Blogger
(46,757 posts)You can't win an election if you only represent the top 1%.
CreekDog
(46,192 posts)Wasn't really Christian, wasn't someone like Ryan.
Remember these are people who think people lived with dinosaurs -and maybe it's not so surprising since dinosaurs is what they are.
cr8tvlde
(1,185 posts)Dude has never had to get a J.O.B. Perhaps the speaking circuit, but if he's tagged the "reason" Romney failed, which may be setting up, he may not get the Palin financial gravy train afterwards. Other than the Bridge to Nowhere, she was pretty politically neutral and clueless. But Ryan, especially, if he "goes rogue" now, it blows his "handsome, wonky and intellectual" front and the bigwigs that selected him will vanish, IMHO.
If Palin's on the way out as Fox commentator, there might be an opening for a new "batshit-wing" opinion there.
theKed
(1,235 posts)professional marathon trainer!
Liberal_in_LA
(44,397 posts)Jennicut
(25,415 posts)Romney made a pretty big mistake in picking him. And the conservatives beg to let him be set free. Yes, let Paul Ryan say whatever he wants.
Cha
(297,655 posts)Course, who knows what's true around that bunch?
NCLefty
(3,678 posts)Cha
(297,655 posts)tavalon
(27,985 posts)Please, please let Paul Ryan say anything he wants!
smorkingapple
(827 posts)No 2016 for him, that dream is done now. His standing in the house is also shot to shit. Inside he must be seething at latching himself to this loser and killing his own shot at the WH down the road but that's on him..
JBoy
(8,021 posts)tavalon
(27,985 posts)on an early Saturday morning. It was like Christmas, Hannukah and Kwanza all rolled up into one giant amazing joy filled day. I know I couldn't believe our good luck.