Sanders Leads Clinton by 1 Point in Iowa the Day Before the Caucuses – 48-47%

[Krytan11c]

http://overtimepolitics.com/sanders-leads-clinton-by-1-point-in-iowa-the-day-before-the-caucuses-48-47/

[retrowire]

1. I guess this is the thing to keep our eyes on...

"

The popular vote is not what is counted in Iowa however, it is the number of district delegates that matter. Because rural counties have a higher proportional representation in these district delegates than urban counties, Hillary Clinton may very well take the state without winning the popular vote, on account of her edge outside of the cities."

Hillary doesn't have the hold on the rurals she believes she has, but it is possible.

Delegates! *shakes fist*

[DefenseLawyer]

11. Being declared the "winner" is more important than delegates at this point

There are I believe 44 delegates at stake and they will be divided up pretty evenly either way. It's more about the momentum that comes from "winning" at this point. A resounding victory by Clinton could be fatal for Sanders. A win of any kind by Sanders and it could be "here we go again" for all but the most ardent Clinton supporters.

[SidDithers]

2. overtimepolitics LOL. ...nt

Sid

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. I thought it was a scientific poll for a second

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251979411

[Krytan11c]

6. I was actually waiting for this

http://overtimepolitics.com/overtime-politics-mailbag-just-before-iowa-edition/


You should take the time to read it.

[reformist2]

10. These attacks are unfair -it's the establishment mindset, crapping on anyone new who they don't like

[Krytan11c]

12. I agree.

Reading the poll report, the methodology seems good to me, though I am no statistician.

I think it's a good thing that the person who runs the poll owned up to his mistake and fixed it.

[tammywammy]

16. There is no methodology, it's a straw poll n/t

[OilemFirchen]

13. Ha ha.

... up until I now, I have not seen the need to include it (the methodology) in my poll reports...

[Krytan11c]

15. But it has been available.

I will include the full methodology statement I’ve been copy/pasting in every email I receive about it.

They've been available, just not released. This is a new pollster that is learning on the fly.

[OilemFirchen]

18. Uh huh.

This is a guy with a computer, an active imagination and a huuuuuuge jar of paste.

[reformist2]

21. Don't talk about Nate Silver like that!!

[Godhumor]

17. Oh hey apparently people emailed him with my post, nice.

You can read my OP again, if you choose. The problems ran a lot deeper than one or two linked reference cells.

Regardless, he has no clue how to poll or put together a poll, so cheers to him.

[OilemFirchen]

3. Penalty at the one-yard line!

[DCBob]

4. That is a bogus polling outfit.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251979411

[Krytan11c]

8. Again, I was waiting for this

http://overtimepolitics.com/overtime-politics-mailbag-just-before-iowa-edition/

[reformist2]

7. Look at all the cranks trying to tear down this upstart pollster! Real classy, guys.

This is what you might call the "establishment" mentality that craps on anything or anyone not in "the club."

[Hoyt]

9. At this point, polls mean little. I'll wait for actual results.

[JRLeft]

14. All it means is this is a close race.

[ViseGrip]

19. He is the one still moving...up! Go Bernie!

[artislife]

20. It is a nailbiter! nt