What's your prediction for Iowa?

[Nightjock]

As for me

Sanders- 52%
Clinton- 45%
O'Malley-3%

and one more prediction-

Afterwards every single talking head on tv will ask, "Who saw this coming?"

and the answer will be "Millions of people!"

[hoosierlib]

1. Turn out of 200k

And Bernie by a hair...

The revolution (and red-baiting negative attacks by HRC) begin tomorrow...

[daleanime]

2. +1

[bigwillq]

32. Congrats on 200 posts!

[Old Codger]

3. Close to that

Bu personally I think Sanders a little higher than that..I think there will be shock waves generated...(hope no just wishful thinking)

[ProudToBeLiberal]

4. Clinton will win by at least 5% points over Sanders in Iowa. nt

[LexVegas]

5. Lots of reasons from Berniebros why IA doesn't matter. nt

[HereSince1628]

6. Percent of what? Caucusers or delegates to the state convention?

[DCBob]

7. Clinton by 7 points...

and much wailing from the Bernie crowd about cheating and unfairness of the caucus system.

[BigGLiberal]

8. Clinton by 5 over Sanders

[reformist2]

9. Bernie by 6%. Something like 52-46-2.

[basselope]

10. Bernie 52 Clinton 48

Remember, O'Malley likely won't get 15% in any district and so his voters will either have to go home or choose another candidate.

Undecideds, etc, usually break for the non-establishment candidate 2-1, which means if the last poll was accurate Clinton 45, Sanders 42, the 13% should split approximately 8.5% for Bernie, 4.5% for Clinton, giving Sanders about 51 and Clinton about 49.

However, I think people are underestimating the dislike of Clinton out there, so I actually expect more like 75% to break towards Sanders.

[JudyM]

17. Welcome to DU. HRC peeps have an app to redistribute their people to her benefit.

Depending on the numbers, they will join MOMs supporters, etc.

[basselope]

23. TY...

Was here a long time ago, during the Howard Dean days, but forgot my password and have no access to the e-mail address I had in 2004.

Haven't had a candidate to be excited about since then!

[JudyM]

24. Well, re-welcome, then! I'd say Bernie 51 if it weren't for HRCs plan of manipulating the caucus #s

So I'm guessing she will win by at least 3-4 points. And I will still be happy for Bernie with that.

I don't see how MOM will get 15% anywhere except as manipulated by HRCs team.

[basselope]

35. I fear it is possible...

Unfortunately, I also fear that it sets the tone for the rest.

This is the perfect storm for Bernie and Bernie's strategy of reaching out to people who have given up.. those who feel disenfranchised by the process.

A win for Hilary here will give her solid media coverage (who is already in her pocket) and while I will go with Bill Maher's advise of if I can't eat the fish, eat the chicken... I will hold my nose doing it but I truly believe that in a Trump v Clinton matchup, she will lose and we will have President Trump... so I may work like crazy to try and get Cruz to be the nominee for the GOP or even bush... b/c only with GOP apathy being a strong as what democratic apathy will be, can the democrats hold the white house.

[JudyM]

36. Well we should know in a little over 24 hours. We can hope for the best.

It's mind boggling that in all of the US we don't have better candidates on both sides. I mean, Bernie's great, but the rest, just whew (except MOM, but it seems he doesn't have the public support needed to win the GE).

[bigwillq]

34. Hello

Welcome to DU!

[askew]

42. He's going to get 15% in some precincts. I'd guess he wins a couple of small ones out right.

Even top people on the ground in Iowa who are Hillary supporters expect O'Malley to finish in 2nd in the precinct that has Luther and Grinnell colleges. He should do better than expected in the Drake University's precinct as well.

[alcibiades_mystery]

11. I'll go

Clinton - 52%
Sanders - 40%
O'Malley - 8%

[monmouth4]

12. Bernie = Enormous lead, landslide...n/t

[Live and Learn]

13. I agree with yours. nt

[speaktruthtopower]

14. HRC

I think she'll pick up OMalley's 3% and win by about 5%. The sense of inevitability will eventually push her over the top. If not now, in a few weeks.

On the Republican side, wouldn't be surprised if Bush does better than expected. They may be getting sick of the opprobrium and look for a familiar name. Plus he must have a ground game with all that money.

[JudyM]

19. I agree with you re: Bush. Maybe Rubio too. It's going to be a squeaker on the dem side, though.

[AtomicKitten]

15. My prediction?

[Robbins]

16. I am going conservative here

Bernie 52 Clinton 47

I think the gop Clown car will be Trump 30% Cruz 25% Rubio 20% Carson 15% rest-single digets

The MSM will be shocked.

[Gregorian]

18. I don't dare to guess. I'm not jynxin' this thang.

[Stuckinthebush]

20. Clinton +3

And Trump with a massive win on the GOP side.

[angrychair]

21. For the record

There is no "winner" in an Iowa caucus in the "winner take all" context of a primary or election.
That being said, I think he will come out ahead by 2-5 delegates and a worst case scenario will one less than Clinton.

Even in my "worse case scenario" though Sanders comes out ahead. He will win NH. He is likely to win NV. He may loss SC but "worse case" there still has him with a very positive showing and therefore showing he is in play in the South.
HRC has been a vast majority of her money and effort into Iowa. Much reporting exist on this subject. That has caused her a less than ideal ground game in the Super Tuesday states. That is not true for Sanders. He will win a majority of those states.

This will be a very interesting election cycle. Not the victory lap that HRC and her supporters were expecting.

Democracy is awesome.

[ypsfonos]

22. Bernie

+8

[The River]

25. Mostly Cloudy

with a high of 42, low of 32. Chance of snow late Monday night.

[HereSince1628]

29. I predict that will shorten any victory parties.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

26. I really don't have a clue.

The way they run their caucuses, I could see it going absolutely anywhere, despite roughly even numbers of folks in polls saying they prefer each of the two main candidates.

[saltpoint]

27. I'm half stunned and half sickened by

the Republican Party no matter the context, but moreso this election cycle.

Trump's loud mouth, Cruz's slithering around like a reptile, Jeb eating nails for breakfast, Christie perfecting his role as the The Nation's Biggest Asshole, and Ben Carson blathering on about grain in pyramids.

It's a total train wreck.

I think they're stuck with Trump or Cruz. They deserve to be, too. But the rest of us don't.

[Lucinda]

58. +1 n/t

[Recursion]

28. We won't know the percentages, just the delegate count

I suppose exit polls might give us some idea of the percentages.

[marlakay]

30. Bernie by 2%. Nt

[yardwork]

31. Hillary and Bernie will collect about an equal number of delegates.

Talking heads on TV will blather for days but the outcome of IA is clearly mostly a draw.

[morningfog]

50. I agree, +- 2. It's going to be a near even delegate split.

[KingFlorez]

33. Clinton 54%, Sanders 42%

[KingCharlemagne]

48. Based on crowds in past two days, sanders wins by 20 points = LANDSLIDE. Red-baiting begins

Feb 2. See Upton Sinclair's run for California Governor.

[Paulie]

37. Bernie by 12

Since this is a prediction thread.

[AJH032]

38. Is that result actually possible?

I thought the Iowa caucus rules don't award delegates to any candidate with less than 15%, so how could O'Malley get 3%? Unless I'm understanding it wrong?

[askew]

40. It's 15% for each precinct.

So, it is very possible for O'Malley to get 3% of total delegates by achieving 15% viability in a handful of precincts.

[AJH032]

41. Got it, thanks!

[askew]

39. My prediction:

Sanders - 40%
H. Clinton - 35%
O'Malley - 25%

Yes, it's completely unrealistic but I am hoping for a huge O'Malley surprise.

[Ferd Berfel]

44. Aw hell. I don't know. What do you think?

Hillary



Bernie



DOn't tell me....let me think...............

[Flying Phoenix]

45. Call me nuts, then go to bed.

Sanders: 72
Clinton: 14
O'Malley: 14

Story of the night: A superb strategy for Bernie to assist O'Malley after excessive caucus goers have flooded the rooms with high rate of solid Bernie supporters in each caucus location with a very small number of Clinton supporters, reflecting the actual numbers of people who are tired of the establishment and ready for a new direction.

(I know I live in a fantasy world, but I'm realistic that Bernie'll win convincingly, if not a blowout)

[KingCharlemagne]

49. LOL - And I thought I was being optimistic! I like the cut of your

jib!

[Live and Learn]

56. ROFL I love it. nt

[DemocraticWing]

46. I hope it's Bernie

My actual prediction:

Clinton 50%
Sanders 48%
O'Malley 2%

Turnout: 198K

Bernie is hurt because his college vote isn't spread out enough.

On the Republican side I think Trump edges Cruz, with Rubio closer than people expected. No candidate will get more than 25%, but only those 3 (and mayyybe Carson) above 10%.

I think Sanders pulls off a less than convincing win in New Hampshire, but that an upset in Nevada can break the narrative and change things in his direction. If he wins Iowa and New Hampshire (which is possible) then we won't need to hold out for an upset in Nevada.

[winter is coming]

47. Bernie will win if the turnout is high.

Perhaps by a surprising amount.

[Kalidurga]

51. Bernie wins

But, by a lot less than your prediction. I am thinking 49/45/and I have no clue what O'Malley supporters will do. If they think they are being played by Hillary people they might come over to Bernie's side. If they want him to get to the 15% point in at least some places they might accept the help of Hillary people. I would tell them to f' themselves myself, but that means nothing in the real world.

[Attorney in Texas]

52. Sanders 45%; Clinton 42%; O'Malley 8% - Trump 26%; Cruz 22%; Rubio 16%; Carson 11%; Paul 5%; Bush 4%

[longship]

53. With the weather question, I wouldn't hazard a guess.

[asuhornets]

54. Clinton will win by 7 or 8 points. eom

[CajunBlazer]

55. Clinton by 4 1/2 points

[brooklynite]

57. Clinton 53 - Sanders 46 - O'Malley 1

Reminder that:

1. the percentages that will be reported will not be voters, but will be allocated delegates

2. Delegates are allocated at a precinct level, not statewide

3. A candidate that doesn't reach 15% in a percent won't receive any delegates

[kcjohn1]

59. Sanders by 7-10 points

Not as big of turnout as in 08 but primarily because of lower turnout from Clinton supporters.

54 Sanders
45 Clinton
01 O'Malley