Why This Is the Iowa Poll That Everyone Was Waiting For

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Perhaps no political poll is more eagerly anticipated and receives more attention than the last Des Moines Register poll before the Iowa caucuses.

This year, the final Des Moines Register/Bloomberg survey shows Hillary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders by three percentage points, 45 to 42, and Donald Trump leading Ted Cruz by five points, 28 to 23 percent.

The hype ahead of the survey is easy to understand. Conducted by Ann Selzer, it has one of the most impressive track records in polling — nailing the results even when many other polls predict a different outcome.

The Selzer poll became famous in 2008 when it showed Barack Obama winning with a stupendous turnout from voters who hadn’t previously participated in the caucus. In the 2014 midterm election, the survey found Joni Ernst winning her Senate race by a comfortable seven-point margin — no other poll showed Ms. Ernst ahead by even four points. She won by eight points.

As FiveThirtyEight put it succinctly last week, “Ann Selzer Is The Best Pollster in Politics,” and it gives Ms. Selzer a coveted A+ rating.


http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/31/upshot/why-this-is-the-iowa-poll-that-everyones-waiting-for.html

“I will take the Des Moines Register poll, which is the gold standard for polls in Iowa.”

-Bernie Sanders

[asuhornets]

1. Only three..

Well I guess a win is a win.

GO HILLARY

[mucifer]

2. Pretty much margin of error. I am amazed that the race is so close.

I would expect Bernie to be way behind without getting the funding from big banks and the insurance industry. Also, the mainstream media has him labeled as pretty much a wack job. But, then again they have Hillary labeled as corrupt with her emails. The MSM doesn't like the dems.

All in all I believe Bernie is doing amazingly well.

[nc4bo]

5. I know, right? Ms. Inevitable Frontrunner squeaking out a tie

Hahaha from an underdog no less!!

Go Bernie!

[cali]

3. Ok. You're excited by this poll. Got it. As you've posted op

after op about this poll, it would be hard not to know that. I'm a bit puzzled by this string of ops, but chacun a sons gout

[MineralMan]

6. It's a poll. Apparently it's a highly-respected one in Iowa.

Its results are its results. It shows a tight race, with a slight edge for Clinton, as other polls this week have indicated as well.

Now, we just have to wait for the caucuses to happen. We'll all know the results on Tuesday.

There are lots of "strings of ops" around here lately. I can't imagine being puzzled that, somehow. People on DU are interested in the Iowa caucuses.

[cali]

7. The op has started at least 9 threads about this, min

I Don need you to explain it to to me MinMan.

[MineralMan]

8. So? You also start many threads.

It's DU. Any member here can start as many threads as he or she wishes.

As for myself, today I've started just one thread today. I won't be starting any more of them, since my mother-in-law is about to be transferred from the hospital to transitional care. I won't have time to bother with the Iowa caucuses. It wouldn't have any effect on them, anyhow.

Neither will anyone else's posts.

BTW, my name here is MineralMan, not "min" or "MinMan." Thanks.

[SidDithers]

4. DU rec...nt

Sid