Selzer IA Poll: Some of the key demographics from the poll

[book_worm]

Her favorability rating is 81 percent, right behind Sanders at 82 percent. Good numbers, but not as good as for the current and former Democratic presidents: Eighty-six percent have positive feelings about former President Bill Clinton, and 90 percent about President Barack Obama.

Pro Hillary:
It’s time for a woman to be president, 80 percent of likely caucusgoers say — and 42 percent feel strongly about it.

Hillary takes the female vote by 10-points (47 percent to 37 percent), while Bernie takes the male vote by five.

Clinton captures 65 percent of caucusgoers age 65 and older, while Sanders gets only 27 percent. Older voters make up a bigger portion of the Democratic electorate.

83% of Hillary supporters are fully committed to her compared to 69% of Bernie's supporters towards him.

73% of Hillary supporters are "Very enthusiastic" compared to 69% of Bernie's supporters.

Clinton leads Sanders among Democrats who say they will definitely hit caucus sites, while Sanders leads among Democrats who say they will probably caucus.

Pro Bernie:
First-time caucusgoers prefer Sanders (53 percent) over Clinton (34 percent). But this group makes up a relatively small portion of the caucus electorate (Obama took this group by a more than 2-1 margin in 2008).

Among those under 35, 63 percent give the Vermont U.S. senator their support, and just 27 percent back Clinton

Those without a religious affiliation like Sanders better (67 percent), while 27 percent back Clinton.

Liberals go for Sanders (51 percent) over Clinton (41 percent).

By a 51-37 percent margin Bernie is the choice on the question of which candidate cares more for "people like me."

68 percent of respondents said it's OK for a democratic socialist to be president.

While Clinton has some of the same vulnerabilities with Sanders now that she had with Obama in 2008, Sanders does not have as broad a reach as Obama did. In the final pre-caucus survey of 2008, Obama led in many categories, with both definite and probable caucus-goers and decided as well as persuadable voters.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/30/clinton-keeps-slim-edge-over-sanders-latest-iowa-poll/79537020/

[longship]

1. Nearly all irrelevant in a caucus.

It all depends on how fervently one feels to not just go to the polls and pull a lever (or mark a ballot) but to stand up and be counted.

That is why polling for the Iowa caucus is always dangerous, no matter how many times one has been predictive. After all, it is rarely more than a coin flip when the top candidates are revealed early on. Somebody is inevitably going to be the most accurate, just playing the odds.

That is a statistical certainty if one cherry picks the pollster who has such a record.

However, if one actually understands statistics, instead of the mathematically illiterate version of statistics, one would understand that the roulette wheel display in every Las Vegas casino which shows the last dozen (or so) winners means absolutely nothing about the entirely independant prediction about the current roll of the dice. (Sorry about the mixed metaphor.)

In other words, Selzer is the most accurate until she isn't. Any claim to the former must be filtered through significant skepticism taking into consideration confirmation bias and post hoc justification.

Then there's the fact that Iowa is not a primary, but a caucus. That is an entiry different animal.

I have no idea who will win. And neither do any of the pollsters, none who are predicting who or how many will show up on Monday. And even if they make such predictions, they will likely be no more accurate than so-called psychics John Edward or Sylvia Browne.

Such are the vagaries of caucuses.

It's like the Zen master, as related by Gust Avrokotos (a true story):

We'll see.

And yup! That's Philip Seymour Hoffman (as Gust) and Tom Hanks (as Congressman Charlie Wilson) in Mike Nichols' last film, Charlie Wilson's War.

Yup! I love to cite irrelevancies when I point out irrelevancies. It makes me think. Or not.



Or not.

Love ya all.

[lunamagica]

2. "73% of Hillary supporters are "Very enthusiastic" compared to 69% of Bernie's supporters. "

There goes that meme that Hillary supporters aren't enthusiastic.

So we know who those 65 and older, and those under 35 support. what about those in-between?

[comradebillyboy]

3. We also know which age group is most likely to caucus...