Ann Selzer Is The Best Pollster In Politics

[DemocratSinceBirth]

How her old-school rigor makes her uncannily accurate.

By CLARE MALONE

An old “PBS NewsHour” clip, in all its dull, steady glory, pretty much pinpoints the moment that famed Iowa pollster Ann Selzer got hot.

Shot on New Year’s Day 2008, the video features her sitting face to face with reporter Judy Woodruff in what looks like a living room; both women are wearing turtlenecks, Selzer’s underneath a sweater, Woodruff’s a blazer, and while the atmosphere appears cozy, the interview isn’t particularly.

“She’s standing a little too close to me, and I’m a little bit backed up against the wall,” Selzer told me, laughing. We were sitting in her office in West Des Moines in December, only weeks before Iowa’s Feb. 1 first-in-the-nation caucuses, and Selzer had just asked if I wanted to hear about the time she predicted that an upstart senator from Illinois named Barack Obama would win the Iowa caucuses with unprecedented voter turnout, sent the American political universe into an epic tizzy, and became one of Washington’s insider celebrities.

I did want to hear.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/selzer/

“I will take the Des Moines Register poll, which is the gold standard for polls in Iowa,”

-Bernie Sanders

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/ann-selzer-iowa-pollster-216151#ixzz3ymOxICOo

[SunSeeker]

1. K & R

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. “I will take the Des Moines Register poll, which is the gold standard for polls in Iowa,”

“I will take the Des Moines Register poll, which is the gold standard for polls in Iowa,”

-Bernie Sanders

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/ann-selzer-iowa-pollster-216151#ixzz3ymOxICOo

[NurseJackie]

4. I love that quote! (It appears that many of his followers probably missed seeing it.)

I'm glad you're posting it often (for all the good it will do.) But still.

[workinclasszero]

9. Wow I actually agree with Bernie on this one!

“I will take the Des Moines Register poll, which is the gold standard for polls in Iowa,”

-Bernie Sanders

[NurseJackie]

3. Great article ... thanks for posting it!

[Depaysement]

5. You're probably rights out Selzer

It's now a statistical tie.

Clinton had a 25 point lead in the middle of November.

And she undercounted PBO's numbers a bit in 2008.

[pangaia]

19. Sshhh... they won't understand what that means...

4th quarter at the HillaryDome, 22 seconds left. We started on our own 2 yard line. We have 2 time outs left . Hillary is ahead by 3 points, but we are now in the red zone, with a mobile quarterback with a rocket arm, a good running back, great tight end and two all-star wide receivers, and a kick ass offensive line.


NOISE !!!!!!!!! NOISE !!!!!!!!

[SidDithers]

6. DU rec...nt

Sid

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. I was instructed to wait for her poll because her poll was dispositive and I did as instructed./nt

[longship]

7. Post hoc rationalizations rarely pan out.

I am not saying that Selzer isn't psychic. I am saying that nobody is psychic.

Somebody saying that she is "the best pollster in politics" is like saying John Edward he is the best psychic. It is called confirmation bias -- one remembers the hits and ignores the misses. If one is clever, one promotes their hits.

That is why I equally ignore psychics and pollsters, especially those who promote themselves as "the best pollster".

Anyway, how in the fuck does one poll a caucus?

It's madness.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Maybe it's serendipity but she picked eight of the last nine IA caucus winners

Maybe it's serendipity but she picked eight of the last nine IA caucus winners and in the one instance she was wrong the person she chose to win lost by 37 votes.

[longship]

12. Again, post hoc generalizations are worthless.

I am not saying that she won't be correct, but she basically has a population of two, so it is a coin flip at worst. I will stick with the psychic analogy, as in she is no better than the fake psychics. The fact that she has been correct is utterly meaningless when one makes ones predictions 24 hours before the caucus, when all the other polls are in.

I am underwhelmed, even if she gets it right.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. I wouldn't lump inferential statistics with clairvoyance/nt

[brooklynite]

20. It's NOT just a who will win prediction...

...its an assessment of the scale of the win, and an analysis of whether there's a late surge towards a second place candidate (hint: there isn't)

[longship]

21. All which is rubbish in a caucus. nt

[Mass]

10. She is one of the best, and she will still be whether Sanders or Clinton wins

because she understands a 3 point lead in a 4 % MOE poll does not mean a sure thing. It is indeed a tight race and turnout will be everything.

[mcar]

14. K&R

[floriduck]

15. You might be right.

Any result in the neighborhood, either direction would still give her an acceptable call. Tomorrow will tell us how close she got.

Good luck but Go Bernie!

[book_worm]

16. The two polls I respect the most: Selzer & PPP both give Clinton leads going into Monday

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. I am willing to stipulate the polls could be wrong. There are lots of instances where they are.

But they are still right a lot more than they are wrong.

[thesquanderer]

18. I think the place that all these polls are falling short...

...is that, as I understand it, wherever O'Malley's support doesn't reach 15% (i.e. probably everywhere), his supporters may switch to Clinton or Sanders. If they break more toward Sanders than Clinton (as I read elsewhere is likely to be the case ), that will eat up some of the difference which is narrow to begin with.

I think what it comes down to is that, really, it's simply too close to call.

It also means that, regardless of who wins, the two of them may well walk away with about the same number of delegates. So the actual "win" may be more about bragging rights and PR than anything else (which is not to dismiss the benefit of bragging rights and PR).

However, if either one of them somehow manages an actual blowout, THAT will be big news. Unlikely, though.