2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie Sanders might have an electability problem
Bernie Sanders might have an electability problem
His campaign says he would expand the map of battleground states, but pollsters suggest hes misreading the data.
By Steven Shepard
01/29/16 06:42 PM EST
Indeed, public pollsters whove conducted surveys in both Iowa and New Hampshire caution that the Sanders team might be misreading the data the campaign is relying on to make its case that Sanders would broaden the Democratic electorate and make more states competitive by luring young, more independently minded voters.
Patrick Murray, who runs the Monmouth University Polling Institute in New Jersey, said the independent voters who are backing Sanders in the primary are more liberal in orientation and would be likely to vote for the Democrat in November anyway.
Its a big leap of faith to take primary poll data and jump to the general, added Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which has conducted recent polls for NBC News and The Wall Street Journal. You do ask the questions, and it tells you something: Hillary has a problem with independents, and Bernie doesnt. Fast forward to September, October and November. The campaigns will change, and that dynamic will be different.
The increasing competitiveness of the presidential race has left many Democrats to consider how a Sanders nomination would affect their partys chances at keeping the White House, and its become a frequent talking point on the campaign trail as Clinton and Sanders make their final pitches to voters in both early states.
The Clinton campaign insists the former secretary of state is the strongest potential candidate in the fall, and Clinton allies are warning that picking Sanders would jeopardize not only Democrats hold on the presidency, but also damage the partys prospects to win back the Senate and make inroads on Republicans wide House majority.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/bernie-sanders-might-have-an-electability-problem-218432#ixzz3yoUp01Fr
jfern
(5,204 posts)And has much better favorabilities. So he's more electable. And if Hillary bets indicted, that will be a HUGE difference.
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)hear "socialist communist socialist communist socialist communist....!!!!!" night and day. It would be horrendous.
nyabingi
(1,145 posts)Haven't you been paying attention to the eight years of Republican attacks on Obama?
w4rma
(31,700 posts)There is at least some evidence that Mr. Sanders is performing better among Southern white voters than Mr. Obama did, not merely trading more affluent for less affluent voters to no obvious advantage as appears to be the case farther north. In South Carolina, polls often show Mr. Sanders in a close race or even ahead of Mrs. Clinton among white voters his worst recent showing is an 11-point deficit, with 40 percent of the vote. In August, an automated poll showed a close race in West Virginia, one of Mr. Obamas worst states in 2008.
There are some important consequences to Mr. Sanderss strength among less affluent Southern white voters. It could give him a chance to do far better than Mr. Obama in states like West Virginia or Kentucky, and the chance to compensate at least partly for faring worse than Mr. Obama among black voters in states like Missouri, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
More generally, Mr. Sanderss success in uniting less affluent white voters and liberals with a populist message is a fairly novel development that might augur well for progressives in Democratic politics.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/31/upshot/bernie-sanders-is-making-surprising-gains-with-less-affluent-whites.html
merrily
(45,251 posts)Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)Not the least of which is the FBI probe.
And even though she spent nearly 20 years in Arkansas, no one in my extended Arkansas family supports her. Most are for Bernie, a couple are for Trump. No one is for Hillary, and no one even gives the former governor, Mike Huckabee, a second thought.
SammyWinstonJack
(44,130 posts)merrily
(45,251 posts)blue neen
(12,321 posts)He's great and has some wonderful ideas in his platform, hence my continued indecision.
The candidate who has the greatest chance to win the General is something that weighing on my mind, though. There is too much at stake. There's a real chance we can take back a Senate seat in PA, and some Congressional districts, too.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)You like his policies so vote for the policies you like. It really isn't complicated.
blue neen
(12,321 posts)Actually, it really is complicated.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)Vote for what makes your life better instead of what you fear, dislike or hate.
FUD is the greatest manipulative device that exists.
Fear
Uncertainty
Doubt
It is a mind killer.
Don't let them kill your mind.
Vote your economic self interest.
blue neen
(12,321 posts)They'll have a greater likelihood of getting something done with Democrats in the Senate and Congress. Pat Toomey's Senate seat is there for the taking. We need it.
Less Republicans in office nationwide and in this state will make my life better.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)She will turn out the vote for Republicans.
If Bernie's economic self interest campaign puts him over the line, it will probably be a hefty win and we will pick up enough downstream spots to make a good start on switching the center of power in DC and the states.
You choose.
blue neen
(12,321 posts)"Some even dream of seeing Sanders, an avowed socialist, atop the Democratic ticket, which might cancel out any challenge posed by Cruz or Trump."
"I'd much rather run against Bernie Sanders than Hillary Clinton, absolutely," Gleason said."
Rob Gleason is the Chairman of the Pennsylvania Republican Party.
http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20160126_Will_Trump_or_Cruz_sink_Toomey_re-election_bid_.html
Yes, I will choose, with my head and my heart.
Thank you for your time.
merrily
(45,251 posts)blue neen
(12,321 posts)The Inquirer was just reporting it.
Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)blue neen
(12,321 posts).
w4rma
(31,700 posts)If Bernie can't do it, Clinton *definitely* can't do it.
blue neen
(12,321 posts)?
w4rma
(31,700 posts)blue neen
(12,321 posts)The relevance is this: Hillary Clinton won the PA Primary in 2008 in a year and at the time of year when Barack Obama clearly had the momentum and had the so-called "electability".
The other point is this: Hillary Clinton is popular in PA and well-known. The electorate in PA is not much changed demographically since 2008.
I will support either candidate in the General Election.
w4rma
(31,700 posts)Clinton's only campaign win was a single term as a U.S. Senator where "I represented Wall Street", as she says.
And I have doubts as to whether Bernie Sanders can get those electoral votes in PA. Sorry that you don't like that answer. Hillary Clinton is well known and popular in PA as proven by her Primary win. Bernie Sanders is not.
w4rma
(31,700 posts)they like him. The opposite occurs with Clinton. The more she exposes herself to voters, the LESS they like of her. We dodged a bullet by not making her the Democratic nominee in 2008. We need to dodge her bullet again, now.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)Do you reckon that anyone will salute when that is run up the flagpole next to the ones with her going after obama from the right on guns?
They already have the ad written; and most people remember her saying this stuff clearly.
From the GOP's site, there is a lot more.
https://www.gop.com/in-2008-clinton-attacked-obama-on-guns-from-the-right/
I know I know, let me help you:
"The same Republican Geniuses that have organized the 2015/6 Rep primary season are playing 6th dimensional triominoes and making the ad just to help Bernie" right?
You're welcome.
(ETA: I was writing this as you were posting #26 - am I good or what?)
That is Pennsylvania and frankly I think it is one of the worst shots Hillary has. She might squeak out a win nationally, but I think PA is going to be a pretty tough slog.
Just remember one important and ironclad fact - all life's activities are by their nature economic activities, including us when electing/choosing leaders. The Purpose for which we - as the creatures we are - choose leaders is not normally for being in a state or near state of war. It is for the administrative requirements of the domestic and political economies that form our system of life.
ttfn
P.S. Don't forget to vote for your economic self interest - no one else can.
blue neen
(12,321 posts)They'll find plenty to go after, though, no matter if it's Bernie or Hillary.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)merrily
(45,251 posts)blue neen
(12,321 posts)The PA Primary is not until April, possibly being moved up to March to make it more meaningful. A lot can happen between now and then.
I didn't decide very early in 2008 either.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)I'm impressed as hell with the idea that his POLICIES have better than 70% support across the board.
I read his 26% support from Republicans in Vermont as a demonstration of what that kind of policy support translates into at the polling place.
Bernie has the potential to make electoral history.
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)I don't know why she insists on proving it again.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)To connect with voters".
He says her policies are "uninspring" and her politics are "inauthentic".
She "seems calculating and phony"
Mind you, This article had Hillary supporters on DU falling all over themselves to affirm how "spot on" it is.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/democrats-would-be-insane-to-nominate-bernie-sanders/2016/01/26/0590e624-c472-11e5-a4aa-f25866ba0dc6_story.html
It is good that her supporters can acknowledge what a weak,"cautious and uninspiring" campaign she is running, but it is patently ridiculous to then assert based upon some nebulous metrics (Milbank: "Americans have never elected a socialist president"; yeah, and until 2008 they had never elected an African American one with an unusual name, either) that she is still somehow the "stronger" candidate than the guy who IS taking brave and bold positions, who IS generating enthusiasm.
If she's such a strong candidate, why isnt she beating him easily, like she was supposed to?
stonecutter357
(12,697 posts)Jenny_92808
(1,342 posts)Go Bernie!
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)And reality insists that it's the other way around. Because the status quo is untenable and the voters (especially the young voters) know it.
Paka
(2,760 posts)to the bogus obstacles you present would get me slammed, so I will limit myself to this meaningless comment.
vercetti2021
(10,156 posts)Hillary would have a harder time in the GE than Bernie. He doesn't have baggage like she does nor flip flops on issues. GO BERNIE GO!!!
left-of-center2012
(34,195 posts)I'm shocked !!!
merrily
(45,251 posts)Don't vote for him, I tells ya. For the love of God, just don't.
Oh, the horrorrrrrrrr!
wtawilltaw
(16 posts)With a Bernie win there's a reason to throw the bums out even "democrats". With Clinton you are voting 100% for the status quo and nothing will change. There would be no reason to vote. At that point people really wouldn't care if Babylon fell down.
Elmer S. E. Dump
(5,751 posts)Nanjeanne
(4,960 posts)Independents decide elections. This has been the talking point for a long time. Bernie does better with Independents. Ergo - new talking point - Bernie can't win.
Sheesh.