Hillary is most likely about to win Iowa for these reasons:

[RBInMaine]

First, polls have CONSISTENTLY had her ahead, so THAT is the most important trend. It is to where 538 has her at an 80% chance of winning.

Now, the reasons:

1) Her team has been there a LONG time making connections and building the ground game. Much more than Bernie.
2) She wins with LIKELY and RELIABLE caucus-goers.
3) Geography is on her side. Sanders does well in big college areas. But ALL the little rural areas are Hillary country. She owns MUCH more geography.
4) Sanders would need to get ALL those young people to go caucus. Will they? Hmmmmmm....?
5) Hillary has done tons and tons of smaller up close and personal events.
6) Sanders has not done well IDing his large rally-goers to make sure they caucus.
7) Hillary has run a good GOTV operation.
8) Hillary is SUPREMELY qualified for the job.

I love Bernie. But he would have to pull a MAJOR upset to win at this point.

If Bernie loses, he does go on to win NH, but Hillary comes out with WAY more MOMENTUM. I think she gains in NH, but then goes on to run the table, especially in the South.

If the race turns firmly to Hillary, she needs to LEARN from the Sanders message, GET more inspiring, GET Bernie to endorse her if and when he starts to fade, and MAKE BERNIE PART OF HER CAMPAIGN. Bernie has said he would support her. She needs to conference with him in a big way and have Bernie actively campaign for her. Bernie would make a great Sec. of Labor as well.

Over in Crazy Land, I think Trump wins both Iowa and NH and then runs the table. They're gonna nominate that crazy asshole. And then let the REAL games begin. I will say this about Hillary. She is ONE TOUGH GRANDMOTHER! She puts the shit to the RePUKElicans and Trump HARD all the time. She knows how to FIGHT. So this is gonna be fun to watch.

[bkkyosemite]

1. yada yada yada

[RBInMaine]

5. Is that all you've got? If you disagree, please, at least offer a real argument. And, if Bernie

loses, don't cry in your soup. If he wins, I certainly won't. I will back whomever wins in the end and have said so. It is just very statistically tough for Bernie to win this at this point. Hillary is my first choice, but I have always said that I really like Bernie too, and I think his candidacy is good for the party and for American democracy. Hillary is MEGA-qualified. She is ready at moment-one. And she is PROGRESSIVE. Not as far left as Bernie, but PROGRESSIVE.

[busterbrown]

15. Don’t take it personally.

They have been attacking the “I love Bernie but don’t feel he can win the general” for at least a year..
It becomes very tiring. They usually end up telling us we “have no guts”

I don’t wanna gamble.. Supreme Court, House, Senate and an a right wing President at the helm?
Absolute fucking disaster.. Can’t chance it..

[bkkyosemite]

28. I'm not going to cry. I am saying with my yada that I do not

agree with all that you have written in your OP.

[workinclasszero]

2. Nice post

Thanks

[DCBob]

3. Good points.

[cali]

4. Agreed she has an unparalleled ground game. She's likely to win, unless

A large wave of new caucus goers show up.

[RBInMaine]

6. I think it would need to be tidal wave. Party registrations aren't climbing as they should for that.

[busterbrown]

11. She is calling for the release of these emails in question..all 22.

They probably weren’t even considered classified when she sent them.

The State Dept.. has really fucked this up..Lots of in fighting.

[SCantiGOP]

8. Rational and probably

an accurate observation.

[Lucinda]

9. The small events I think have made a major impact. I watched one on CSPAN and the audience

reactions from beginning to end were interesting. It was late in the evening, 10 pm-ish and she was running late. The staff ordered pizza, and the folks waited to hear what she had to say. It seemed to go from a warm, polite welcome, to a real strong connection by the end of her remarks. Many stayed to speak with her. She has the ability to communicate her points very clearly, and covers a lot of ground in a 25 minute speech. And not one single negative thing was said about any of her opponents.

I also love Bernie. I wish he had a campaign staff that served him better.

And I am beginning to "get" why people on the right are turning to Trump. I think they are finally realizing that a lot of their elected officials are truly making things worse and that people like Rush and Glenn Beck have been feeding them lies for about 20 years now. That is a great first step in moving the country leftward. Trump is the "not them" candidate. But he is dangerous.

[JRLeft]

10. She cannot learn from. Bernie's message because she doesn't believe in his message.

It wouldn't be authentic but that hasn't stopped her before.

[RBInMaine]

20. Here is why you are mistaken:

They share the same GOALS of full health coverage, much lower college tuition, reigning in the too big to fail banks, sensible gun safety, unionization, better jobs with better pay, strengthening Social Security, supporting Medicare, expanding Medicaid, etc. etc. etc. Some differences on how to get there, but your comment that she doesn't believe in all Bernie is for is a hyperbolic falsehood.

Nate Silver has her at an 80% chance of winning two days out. MOST polls have her ahead. Yes, Bernie has done some great work, but not enough. And the MANY smaller events are VERY effective in Iowa. They want to see them up close on our side especially.
She is supremely qualified. It's irrefutable. Wellsley, Yale Law, Attorney, First Lady of AR, First Lady of US, Marshaled in CHIP healthcare program, US Senator, Sec. of State. You don't get a better resume. She's brilliant and VERY experienced.

[retrowire]

12. Here's a reply.

1) That's an opinion
2) She hasn't won but yes I'll give you LIKELY and RELIABLE caucus-goers.
3) Geography is on her side. Sanders does well in big college areas. <--- She owns nothing. She does do better in the rural parts.
4) Sanders basically just needs a few of his RALLIES of young voters to show up and it's done.
5) Hillary has done tons and tons of smaller up close and personal events. <--- This didn't benefit her that much I believe.
6) Sanders has not done well IDing his large rally-goers to make sure they caucus. <---??? He's in a dead heat with Hillary, she dropped 30 points within 2 months. How is he not doing well?
7) Hillary has run a good GOTV operation. <---Since no votes have been made yet, this is clearly opinion. We'll know on monday.
8) Hillary is SUPREMELY qualified for the job. <---Opinion.

[RBInMaine]

16. So, I will say this to you:

They share the same GOALS of full health coverage, much lower college tuition, reigning in the too big to fail banks, sensible gun safety, unionization, better jobs with better pay, strengthening Social Security, supporting Medicare, expanding Medicaid, etc. etc. etc. Some differences on how to get there, but your comment that she doesn't believe in all Bernie is for is a hyperbolic falsehood.

Nate Silver has her at an 80% chance of winning two days out. MOST polls have her ahead. Yes, Bernie has done some great work, but not enough. And the MANY smaller events are VERY effective in Iowa. They want to see them up close on our side especially.

Of course she is supremely qualified. It's irrefutable. Wellsley, Yale Law, Attorney, First Lady of AR, First Lady of US, Marshaled in CHIP healthcare program, US Senator, Sec. of State. You don't get a better resume. She's brilliant and VERY experienced.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

14. the rural areas are not Hillary country

remember she came third last time

[RBInMaine]

17. That was then, this is now. 80% probability from 538 she wins.

[NowSam]

18. thousands turn up for Bernie rallies

but on the day it matters they'll just stay home? I bet they turn up by the thousands. Multitudes.

[basselope]

19. IF she wins for those reasons, Bernie couldn't have won nationally.

Bernie's entire strategy relies upon getting people who had previously given up on the process, who felt they didn't have a voice to stand up and be counted... if they don't show up in Iowa.. they would not show up nationally.

Unfortunately, Hillary is a terribly flawed candidate and I fear will lose to Trump, because Trump is going to swing to the center and act as if the primaries never even happened. Even faced with direct quotes, he will say they were taken out of context and blow them off.

It will be an "outsider" vs "establishment" and worse, an establishment candidate that too large a part of the base doesn't want.

I know far too many democrats who will absolutely refuse to vote for Clinton, no matter how many I repeat Bill Maher's line of if you can't get the fish, eat the chicken!

So, I hope for the chances of a Democrat actually taking the white house, Bernie wins, b/c he is the only candidate I see with a chance against Trump.

[RBInMaine]

22. If The Trump swings to the center he will alienate the very right wingers who put him over.

Hillary is less flawed than a self described socialist. If Bernie won they would shout SocialistCommunistSocialistCommunist... night and day. I think it would crush him.

Romney tried to move to the center. Didn't work. He had already said he wanted Hispanics to self deport, that he wanted Detroit to go bankrupt, etc. They pinned it to his ass BIGTIME and he could not escape it.

Trump has already spouted so much CRAZY, that Hillary and her team, which includes much of Obama's team, are going to run a half a billion dollars worth of ads supergluing all his crazy shit to him in a major league way. If it's The Trump versus Hillary, she wins and all the experts are saying so right now.

If The Trump moves to the center and starts sounding too liberal, the R primary crazies will call him a heathen communist turncoat and tuck tail and run from him. That's what you get with CRAZY. The Trump's die is cast.

[MoonchildCA]

21. Of course, she may win.

I don't necessarily agree wth all your reasons.

But it ain't over 'til it's over. In 2008, The last poll average had her at 29.2 and she received 29.4 percent. Edwards was polling at 26 and received 29.7; while Obama polled at 30.8 and received 37.5. Her numbers almost didn't move and the undecided broke for Edwards and Obama.

So really, you can throw out all the reasons you think will have an impact, but every side can do that to their own benefit.

It's all just speculation at this point.

[RBInMaine]

23. Endgame polling had Obama WINNING. Same now for Hillary.

[MoonchildCA]

25. Yes, and so did my numbers, if you read them, by a bit over 1%.

The point was her numbers didn't move. Hillary is still Hillary. The undecideds broke for the other candidates.

Im not saying that will happen again, I'm just saying based on past precedent, it's a possible scenario.

[DefenseLawyer]

24. Bernie's crowds are just too big!

That's a new one.

[ypsfonos]

26. and everything she's done has lost her a 30% lead...

bye now!

[RBInMaine]

29. Of course it was going to tighten. You are quoting an ANCIENT poll before there was even a campaign.

Of course Bernie has a compelling message and this was going tighten a lot. That is no surprise at all. Still, Hillary will most likely win for the reasons I've said.

[loyalsister]

27. "Hillary has done tons and tons of smaller up close and personal events"

It's my understanding that she does very well in that arena. Unfortunately, she is a rotten candidate when it comes to larger venues and unpredictable crowds. It is all big crowds and large venues for the nominee, thus she would make a terrible candidate for the GE.

If we have war monger vs. war monger, tons of people will sit out. We are screwed if she is the nominee.

[RBInMaine]

30. "War monger" is wild-eyed hyerbole. She has said over and again, "No US ground troops."

No US ground troops in the Middle East conflict. That is what she has said. And she is fine in front of stadium sized crowds too.