2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe Des Moines Register poll is excellent for Sanders -- five key takeaway points
First, the overall result is within the +/-4% margin of error with Sanders at 42% to Clinton's 45%.
Second, the "famously accurate" 2008 DMR poll understated Obama's result by 5.6% and understated Edwards' result by 5.7%.
Third, there has been a HUGE divergence between the robo-call polls which favor Clinton and ALL other polls which show a tie, and the DMR polls confirms the non-robo-call polls, and when you aggregate the new DMR poll with all of those other polls, the race in Iowa remains a dead heat:
Fourth, Sanders is crushing among nonreligious voters, those under 35, independents, first-time caucusgoers, those who say the system favors the rich, and liberals:
nonreligious67% - Sanders
27% - Clinton
among those under 3563% - Sanders
27% - Clinton
independents55% - Sanders
30% - Clinton
first-time caucusgoers53% - Sanders
34% - Clinton
system favors the rich50% - Sanders
39% - Clinton
liberals51% - Sanders
41% - Clinton
Finally, 51% say Sanders is the candidate who cares most about people like them.
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)According to the gold standard pollster Ann Selzer.
questionseverything
(9,655 posts)Far more high-income voters prefer Clinton: 57 percent of those with an income of $100,000 or more pick her; 28 percent choose Sanders.
And Clinton wins with 60 percent of caucusgoers who think the system works reasonably well for those who work hard to get ahead, although two-thirds of the Democratic electorate think the system is rigged.
///////////////////////////////
http://thebernreport.com/bernie-sanders-releases-video-on-how-to-caucus-in-iowa/
NowSam
(1,252 posts)But it does mean that it is pretty close for people with land lines. With the younger generation who were not really included in this poll it is a runaway train for Bernie. We shall see Monday just how much these young people care about their future. I hope these kids will show up and make it absolutely crystal clear in the only poll that really matters. Enough is enough! If voters turn out to vote, BERNIE WILL WIN this thing. If the voters stay home and say it is too cold or "Hey, they don't really need me" then its more of the status quo. I've heard nothing from the other candidates that suggest they won't vote for more war and more enriching of the top 1% while everyone else struggles. The future belongs to the youth and this is your election. You can shape the world or you can settle for for more trickle down. For everything there is a season. Bern Bern Bern. Now is the time. Suit up. Show up. Tell the world, this country belongs to all of us and not just the Oligarchs.
pangaia
(24,324 posts)Are most of these polls done through landlines-- robo or otherwise?
--meaning a big percentage 'the kids' are not being polled?
NowSam
(1,252 posts)All I can tell you is Bernie is filling stadiums and Hillary is standing in empty bowling alleys. SO maybe the pollsters are calling and all the Bernie fans are in the stadiums while the Clinton fans are home able to answer the phone.
Response to ProudToBeLiberal (Reply #1)
Post removed
winter is coming
(11,785 posts)independents and first-time voters would likely turn out. I'm not seeing that?
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)kcjohn1
(751 posts)First time voters. 08 was 60%+.
She said 34% is what you typically see, and is average. She said she is not turnout expert, but basically her model is build off no surge, but average number of voters.
This is the best news for Sanders. If he is deadheat with an "average'" turnout, any additional turnout is gravy. He doesn't need to repeat Obama in terms of getting 60%+ new voters. Just needs to get above the average.
winter is coming
(11,785 posts)is reasonable, but probably an underestimate.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)and no other poll came close to doing that. That's why it is considered the "Gold Standard" of polls and not only for Iowa.
I will take the Des Moines Register poll, which is the gold standard for polls in Iowa, Sanders said in late October.
Ann Selzer's secret sauce
saltpoint
(50,986 posts)in my state's primary line to vote because you'll be in your state's primary line voting, but I'd like to nevertheless.
The specific groupings you list suggest to me the future of a political party. Those groups will be crucial components and may tell us a lot of what the party will look like in the next several cycles.
Bernie Sanders doesn't have a whole lot of support from millionaires and billionaires, and while that means their cash goes to others, it also means the dignity of his supporters is felt in the bones and blood and not the wallet.
Encouraging post for these next few days -- and for several next few presidential cycles. Thank you.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)The topline of the poll does matter.
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)Sanders and which predicts a strong swing to the left in future elections. Sanders is building a movement, not just running for election.
Thus, Sanders cannot lose.
Depaysement
(1,835 posts)Turnout matters. If BS supporters get to and stay in the caucus, he will win.
The whole world is watching.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)that the race is within grasp. Hope will warm you on a cold night better than a fireside whiskey.
For all the heroes working all weekend and all day Monday to get out the vote, it is comfort and inspiration for the last sprint to the finish line to know that everything they have hoped and sweated and frozen to achieve is now within grasp.
Depaysement
(1,835 posts)I have worked scores of races from top to bottom. And you're right.
Btw, the crowds motivate a lot better. So is being able to canvass your constituents twice in your precincts.
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)benny05
(5,322 posts)I didn't.
I just hope the final delegate count is closer than the polls, but it will depend on MOM and whether his supporters, if there isn't viability in their caucus precinct, can be persuaded. I think MOM's support may be underestimated though.
I'm pretty impressed with Bernie so far though. All of his funds come from 95% and not the top income folks. In that poll, it said those making 100K or more were in HC's court.
Gregorian
(23,867 posts)Yes, I thought there was no way Americans would give this guy two seconds of their time. After all, they never seem to recognize a good thing. Wrong. Very wrong. The more wrong, the happier I get.
thereismore
(13,326 posts)knowing that it's "not in the bag just yet."
Gregorian
(23,867 posts)Since we're at the intersection point of the curves, one could argue that these first voting numbers wouldn't be representative of the overall numbers in the primary, since Bernie's curve has a positive slope, versus Clinton's, and that they intersect at this present time. But that makes some assumptions. Like their rates of change of slope are zero. Other than that, go Bernie go!
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)You're whistling past the grave yard.
senz
(11,945 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)But if Bernie fans are good with Hillary in the lead...Yay
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)I am also.
pangaia
(24,324 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Bernie is toast.
But spilt hairs if you must, it's all good.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)I'm talking about Iowa.
NH is a gimme for Bernie. Hopefully his one and only victory. Enjoy it.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)Truly your logic makes no sense.
John Poet
(2,510 posts)After all, she was "inevitable" and started out with a 50 percentage point lead.
Presidents and frontrunners have quit their race before, having "only" lead their competitors by around 10 percent in an early contest. It was a major embarrassment for them.
Lyndon Johnson. Edmund Muskie.
dsc
(52,162 posts)so if Bernie gets Obama's 5.9 and she gets her 4, then she still wins, sounds good to me.
retrowire
(10,345 posts)CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)The only statistic which any one will care about after the caucuses is who won and who lost.
And all six of those factor are already in the final poll results - so they don't mean diddly.
By the way, don't be proud of the "first time caucusgoers" poll findings - first time caucusgoers are historically the least likely to actually show up and caucus.
You trying to find a silver lining in a big bad black cloud.
andrewv1
(168 posts)Is that what we've been hearing regarding unsecured email servers since yesterday?
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)In stock market talk - all of that is figured into the price of the stock. In political talk - that's all figured into the the final poll results.
In Iowa all the talk about how "Bernie did this - how horrible" and "Hillary did that - how terrible" doesn't mean squat any more. The only thing that means anything is who caucuses where and what is the final delegate count.
andrewv1
(168 posts)thesquanderer
(11,989 posts)Sanders supporters should hope for snow, likely to disproportionately reduce turnout for older people over younger ones
lunamagica
(9,967 posts)Someone from IA said this.
thesquanderer
(11,989 posts)lunamagica
(9,967 posts)But this person from Iowa said said he had never seen anyone 18-25 - and he clearly stated NO ONE in that age group show up when the weather was bad.
We'll see..
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Those who tell pollsters that they are going to caucus for the first time.
And remember, Hillary has by far the best ground game in Iowa. If a 74 year olds want a rides to and from their caucus sites, all they have to do is make a call.
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)government. If my guy didn't get out enough votes, then he needs to figure out how to do better, but I don't want him to win due to weather. I want him to win due to people coming out for him.
potone
(1,701 posts)Our primary system is screwed up enough, with small states coming before large ones like California and New York, so I don't want to see anything that depresses the turnout. People who won't show up for the caucuses or primaries might be less likely to vote in the general election.
On another note, can we all stop acting like the election hinges on who wins in Iowa? It is not automatically the end of the campaign for whoever does not win and nor is it the determinant factor in who wins the nomination. Let's all try to remain civil. Please!
Trajan
(19,089 posts)Hugely favors Sanders, by a country mile ...
I think the crowd sizes will translate to real support at the polls ... There is so much riding on this one ... Those huge crowds are going to come out to vote ...
Maybe they just like driving to rallies but hate driving to vote? ... That wouldn't make much sense ...
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Last edited Sun Jan 31, 2016, 03:33 AM - Edit history (1)
The the people who are regular caucusgoers attend their caucuses come hell or high water every 4 years. Remember that Hillary has a great ground game in Iowa - if someone wants a ride to and from a caucus site, they just need to make a call.
In addition, those who tell pollsters that they are going to caucus for the first time, are the least dependable voters.
In addition, if college students caucus in their college towns, they will concentrate the Sanders vote resulting in fewer delegates.
But this is a great poll that is well known for taking into consideration a surge of new caucusgoers (like when it predicted and unexpected Obama victory in 2008 for that reason), so all of the above is all ready accounted for in this poll.
Half-Century Man
(5,279 posts)Monday is simply the beginning of a long process. At no point was either candidate going to throw in the towel because of unfavorable results.
Years ago, I had a western civilization professor who make the point the better than half of the most vicious wars had been fought between different subgroups of the same religion, Catholics vs Protestants, Shia vs Sunni, etc.
His point was each subset see the others as Heretics, holders of a twisted version of the truth. By presenting a sullied version of their beliefs to the world, they damaged the standing of the greater whole. The Heretics were deserving of a deeper hate, they had heard the call and distorted it. They weren't like the unbelievers, who could be forgiven a bit for never accepting the faith in the first place
due to outside influences.
Monday is not the end of this, merely the beginning. Those who prefer a candidate that you don't are not heretics, just really really really really really really really really really confused.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)all later contests.
tblue37
(65,381 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)november3rd
(1,113 posts)Clinton will keep fighting to the very end, no matter what;
Clinton starts with the highest numbers she's going to have in any state: her numbers can really only go down because of name recognition, familiarity;
Sanders's numbers will trend up everywhere, and take votes from Clinton in the process;
The media heavily favor Clinton and will disparage Sanders at every opportunity;
If "The Political Revolution" turns into a genuine national Movement, then Sanders has a chance to win the nomination and the election, and, since it will have to be a tidal wave of grass roots support--with all the media and all the big money against him--it will favorably affect Congress, possibly in a big way.
Otherwise, barring an indictment for emails, Clinton is still a lock if she wins Iowa.
FrenchieCat
(68,867 posts)I say the opposite...getting headline breaking news on your emails, 2 days before the big voting day, while your opponent get cute interviews about his great health, after being reported to be surging for the past 3 weeks....
No, the media is Not on Clinton's side...that's only the mirage you want to see! The media have been protecting Bernie, so they can savage him mercifully in the general election. So if you think the media's been hard on him, you wouldn't even survive when they really come for him!
Skwmom
(12,685 posts)Skwmom
(12,685 posts)Clinton. That is not a mirage or an opinion - it is a fact.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Between them Iowa and New Hampshire have 85 delegates - Bernie is slightly behind in Iowa and well ahead in NH.
However, Clinton starts out with a lead of 332 over Sanders.
Then Hillary is well ahead by 19.5 and 29.5 respectively in Nevada and South Carolina which have a total of 96 delegates.
Then comes the so called "Southeastern Conference Primaries". 14 states (many of them Southern) and territories (like American Somoa) have their primaries on the same day - 3/1/16. A total of 1,000 delegates will be awarded that day. Hillary has a 20 point to 57 point lead in every current poll for that set of primaries.
By 2/2/16 Bernie's campaign will be hanging on by a thread and it doesn't get any better after that.
I see no way that Bernie can win the nomination.
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)The superdelegates will follow the public vote like they always do.
Lithos
(26,403 posts)High turnout - Sanders
Low turnout -Clinton
SheilaT
(23,156 posts)junior college, at the very beginning of class the professor said, "As I'm sure you all know today is election day. I hope all of you will exercise your franchise. But, I want to remind you that a low voter turnout favors Republicans, and so if you're a Republican, don't vote."
So on Monday in Iowa, if you favor Hillary Clinton, knowing that a low voter turnout favors her, don't vote.
(Back in 1976 I was the only student in the class who got the joke and actually laughed. Me, I voted for Jimmy Carter.)
grasswire
(50,130 posts)The "kids" and the other constituencies of Bernie are not going to let this once in a lifetime candidate slip away.
I am proud to be a Bernie supporter, standing on the right side of history and against oligarchy and warmongering and fat financiers.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Everything you pointed to is already contained within the results of the poll. It is like saying that everything that is known about a stock is already included in its current price.
This poll is telling us that there is approximately an 85% chance that Clinton will win in Iowa.