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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumAxelrod re DMR poll: "the race now is ... essentially tied ... Turnout is everything."
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/30/clinton-keeps-slim-edge-over-sanders-latest-iowa-poll/79537020/<edit>
This race is as tight as can be, said David Axelrod, a national political strategist. If Bernie Sanders had momentum headed into the final month, the race now is static and essentially tied."
It comes down to who can grind it out on the ground on Monday night, said Axelrod, a senior political commentator for CNN and an architect of Barack Obama's successful 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns.
The results are within the polls margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
"Turnout is everything," Axelrod said. "If turnout is within a normal range, Hillary likely wins. If it goes higher, approaching 200,000, it will be a good night for Bernie."
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Axelrod re DMR poll: "the race now is ... essentially tied ... Turnout is everything." (Original Post)
Karmadillo
Jan 2016
OP
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)1. the poll watchers will be able to clue us in
they won't know results, but if this turnout is like his rallies, it will be a very good night for bernie
we might know something based on the number of people going in.....
edit...227,000 in 2008
nc4bo
(17,651 posts)2. Axelrod's turn to be called a dummy as he said it's essentially
tied.
Big dummy
It's all about the turnout. Yes it is!
Bern it up Iowans!
Jarqui
(10,126 posts)3. Weather forecast seems pretty good
https://weather.com/weather/5day/l/USIA0231:1:US
http://www.kcci.com/weather/forecast
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/us/hourly-weather-forecast/iowa/des-moines
There is a storm coming in but right now (hope) it arrives after the caucuses after midnight
Right now, weather isn't a factor which is good for Bernie.
http://www.kcci.com/weather/forecast
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/us/hourly-weather-forecast/iowa/des-moines
There is a storm coming in but right now (hope) it arrives after the caucuses after midnight
Right now, weather isn't a factor which is good for Bernie.
Jarqui
(10,126 posts)4. For Sanders supporters, this was very encouraging for turnout
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511097568
They have the enthusiasm and volunteers so it seems to come down to organization of the effort and as Axelrod said, how to bring the new folks up to speed quickly on the process.
They have the enthusiasm and volunteers so it seems to come down to organization of the effort and as Axelrod said, how to bring the new folks up to speed quickly on the process.
JRLeft
(7,010 posts)5. High turnout is needed to offset the small lead she has, hopefully he
can get the undecided vote.
cui bono
(19,926 posts)6. Turnout... Now if you were going to have to go out in the cold, possibly rain/snow and vote...
would the same old same old we can't change things anyway candidate get you to drag yourself out or would the can do let's fix this country and give the working people a better life candidate get you to come out?
Basing voter turnout on the crowds at rallies it would appear that Bernie could win this in a landslide. We'll see...
FEEL THE BERN!!!
.
dixiegrrrrl
(60,010 posts)7. Go millenials, Go!!!!
Nice young strong weather proof folks......
Jarqui
(10,126 posts)8. "Turnout is everything," Axelrod said.
"If turnout is within a normal range, Hillary likely wins. If it goes higher, approaching 200,000, it will be a good night for Bernie."
2004 145,000 voted 17% 18-29, 15% 30-44, 41% 45-64, 27% 65+
2008 250,000 voted 22% 18-29, 18% 30-44, 38% 45-64, 22% 65+
Obama got the kids out. The kids were the difference.
Hillary's biggest strength is 65+ and women
Sanders biggest strength is 18-29 and men
Axelrod is right in that if Sanders gets a good turnout of those youth we saw lined up at the schools, etc, then he'll win as they'll more than offset Hillary's advantage with the older folks.
Bernie can still win this. Kind of neat that kids just coming into politics could once again make a significant difference in their first election.