Poll: Indiana Senate Donnelly (D) leads by 2; Romney leads by 12
WASHINGTON - The findings of our recent Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll yield two fundamental conclusions about the U.S. Senate election, clearly the marquee contest in Indiana this year.
First, with GOPers Romney and Pence holding solid double digit leads yet Democrat Donnelly ahead narrowly, Hoosiers are once again showing the ability to “split” their tickets along the lines of 2008 (narrowly voting for Barack Obama, giving Mitch Daniels a landslide victory, and maintaining a Democratic majority in the Statehouse).
While Joe Donnelly’s current 40%-to-38% lead clearly is within the survey’s margin of error, several underlying factors suggest that while the race will come down to the wire, Donnelly likely has the slight edge.
Presidential: While President Obama has enjoyed a bounce in most national and state polls since the early September Democratic Convention, that is not the case in Indiana. He currently trails 52% to 40%, which is a slightly larger advantage for Romney since the March Howey-DePauw survey (40% Obama, 49% Romney). The President still has some votes to gain among Democrats (82% Obama, 11% Romney), but the bigger challenge is one we noted after the March survey: Barack Obama is losing among independents by double digits (33% Obama, 44% Romney) after WINNING this group in 2008 by 54% to 43%.
The latest Howey/DePauw poll by Republican pollster Christine Matthews of Bellwether Research and Democrat pollster Fred Yang of Garin-Hart-Yang Research, was conducted with 800 likely voters Sept. 19, 20 and 23. The poll included 43% Republicans and leaners, and 38% Democrats and leaners, while 19% were independents.
http://howeypolitics.com/
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Looks like Indiana will indeed remain out of reach for Obama this year, but any chance at another Senate seat means the Senate Majority is likely secure.
Donnelly being ahead is great. Bill Clinton should go and spend a day with him in Indiana. 
