2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumMicrosoft's Bing just called the first four primaries for Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton
Microsoft's track record in calling political races has been excellent so far
In March, Microsoft said it would use its Bing technology to predict the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. On Tuesday, Microsoft jumped in with both feet, calling the first four Republican primaries for Donald Trump.
Microsofts Bing predicts that Trump will win the Republican primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada relatively easily, topping Ted Cruz in all four states. Hillary Clinton is expected to win three out of the first four Democratic primariesIowa, South Carolina, and Nevadalosing New Hampshire to Bernie Sanders.
Microsoft said it used data from polls, prediction markets, and anonymized and aggregated search-engine queries to predict its resultssome of the methods that its used to predict the outcomes of everything from American Idol to the World Cup. It isnt always right: Bing never predicted the Denver Broncos to play the New England Patriots in the NFL playoffs, let alone beat the New England PatriotsBing's erroneous pick to win the Super Bowl.
Why this matters: Microsoft routinely shows off Bing's skills by mining Internet data for predictions on sports and entertainment, politics, and more. The Super Bowl, however, is a sporting event, retaining an element of unpredictability. Award shows are where Microsoft can sink its hooks deep into social sentiment and fish out winners: It correctly called the 2015 Academy Awards, for instance. Elections, where poll follows poll follows poll, are another wealth of data that Microsoft can tap. Microsoft correctly called the No vote on the referendum for Scotland to secede from Great Britain, and also accurately predicted the outcome of more than 95 percent of the 2014 U.S. midterm elections.
http://www.pcworld.com/article/3026461/data-center-cloud/microsofts-bing-just-called-the-first-four-primaries-for-donald-trump-hillary-clinton.html
DefenseLawyer
(11,101 posts)But it's better than "30 Days in the Hole"
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)NobodyHere
(2,810 posts)hollysmom
(5,946 posts)or is it magic. Sorry, I am always amazed at how people can't wait and need a prediction now, I must have some weird patience gene.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)....South Carolina, and Nevadalosing New Hampshire to Bernie Sanders.
If that's correct, the Bernie "revolution" will be done.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)BlueMTexpat
(15,369 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)I'm tired of all the hot air here and other places on the internet.
I want to see what the polls that matter say in 4 days. I might like the results, I might not but lets get to the real thing already LOL
Stuckinthebush
(10,845 posts)"Hillary is crashing!"
"Sanders will win super tuesday!"
Math, folks. Math.
Clinton loses NH, wins or loses Iowa by a sliver and sweeps the rest. That's math not belief.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Its funny how Sanders supporters totally ignore Super Tuesday and huge delegate rich states like Texas.
They are having their fun now, that's for sure LOL
Armstead
(47,803 posts)They've got nothing on your guys
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Enjoy your "huge" victory in NH
Armstead
(47,803 posts)I think the Clinton machine will crush Bernie in the end.
And it makes me sick to think that the underlying attitudes that have kept a lid on liberal reform since 1980 on the side of the aisle that is supposed to represent that will just continue to march us towards the GOP ideals of oligarchy, ubercapitalism and suppression of liberal social aspiration.
Enjoy your hollow victory.
riversedge
(70,242 posts)Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)If Her Inevitableness loses both of those she will be in trouble in Nevada and South Carolina. A blow out in NH could also, by itself, change the dynamics.
aikoaiko
(34,172 posts)awake
(3,226 posts)seam like a bit of a conflict of interest, what are the chances that Microsoft's software will give the victory to Hillary.
Just saying
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Lets see what happens in 4 days time first.
bkkyosemite
(5,792 posts)ChisolmTrailDem
(9,463 posts)Z_California
(650 posts)Everyone leaves the caucus knowing exactly how many delegates each candidate won. The caucus results are then published so every single voter has the means to check the accuracy.
Primaries I worry about.
awake
(3,226 posts)So they are hackable Bernie's people will need to keep an eye out for dirty tricks.
awake
(3,226 posts)Frustratedlady
(16,254 posts)I'm beginning to wonder if any election (caucus, primary or general) will come out the way the common people vote? Scares the hell out of me.
Just sayin'.
bahrbearian
(13,466 posts)Nanjeanne
(4,961 posts)Says otherwise . . .
Do I get a cookie?