My prediction for the Iowa Caucus on Monday night

[book_worm]

Martin O'Malley surprises the pundits and does better than expected--exceeding 15% statewide. This will give him talking points and some momentum going into New Hampshire.

[NurseJackie]

1. I'm afraid that time has run out for O'Malley.

He'll likely be a contender in 2024. He may even be considered for Hillary's VP slot.

Even though this isn't turning out to be his year, he's getting some national exposure and experience ... so that's a good thing. We'll be seeing more from him.

[FSogol]

3. Too early to write him off. n/t

[Goblinmonger]

7. I don't see him as being Clinton or Sanders VP choice.

They are all from the same region. Clinton and Sanders need to to South, Midwest, or West with their VP pick.

[FSogol]

2. I like the way you think. I'm hoping for a Iowa surprise too. n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. I wish MOM the best./nt

[FSogol]

5. Thanks. n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Here is the thing...

Caucuses are weird.


I was on another board where an Iowan was discussing how he brought 80 people to his small rural precinct in 08 to caucus for Bill Richardson but it wasn't enough to meet the 15% viability threshold because so many more people showed up than expected.

Good luck, regardless. If we could predict the future we would be at the race tracks and the casinos.

[FSogol]

10. Yeah, I know they are unpredictable. Virginia has them occasionally and it was hard to tell

what would happen. I much prefer primaries.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Please don't get me started...

One man, one vote and the secret ballot are at the foundation of democracy.


How would you like to be in a union and vote contrary to the wishes of your shop steward when he or she is sitting next to you?

The Electoral College turns the one man one vote principle on it's head but at least it doesn't violate the secret ballot.

[lunamagica]

6. I also wish him the best

[Goblinmonger]

8. I like him.

When I apply the beer test (would you like to have them walk over when you are sitting at a fire in your backyard and have a beer with you), he wins of the 3 Dem candidates. I don't think he has much of a shot in this cycle, but I wouldn't be disappointed if he won.

[cali]

12. My prrediction

Some people will be surprised.