Check out the MASSIVE SHIFT towards Obama in polls!

[fiorello]

These are some obscure ones:

The 'American Life Panel' (Rand) tracks 5000 voters and includes day-by-day numbers of voters shifting from Romnoy to Obama and vv - showing an ongoing, massive shift to Obama for the last 2 weeks - Obama now +8...

And the Princeton election site, based on poll aggregations similar to Nate Silver's, showing an ever-widening 'jaw' between Obama and Romnoy (rhymes with 'annoy').
Also with. Senate forecasts (52-48 for the good guys) and house (Dems +4).

Plus, they have an 'Act Blue' link that identifies Senate candidates where a contribution does the most good for keeping a Democratic Senate and house.

(I found the American life panel from a link at the Princeton site.)

If that's not enough, there is always the page 1 story on today's nytimes... and Nate Silver.

Somewhere, I saw it said that this level of shift in opinion is unprecedented.

Great job, Obama and company! And heck of a job, Romoney.

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/index.php?page=election#shifts-between-candidates

http://election.princeton.edu

[randr]

1. Romney's lies have caught up with him

and he has no cover, so to speak.

[BootinUp]

2. It would be so freakin awesome to take back the House

and send the repukes packing, a real lesson for those obstructing assholes. Let us pray.

[katmondoo]

3. Unbelievably long ballots in Florida

4 pages both sides. Long amendments to the constitution, long to read and understand. Thats how they will steal this in Florida. Fewer early days, and most likley close a lot of voting places. Miami has 10 pages. The Keys I hear are the worse. Scares me. I am in Northern Florida, where Newt was big.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

7. But shouldn't these long ballots hurt Republicans, too? I mean, much of their base in FL is made

up of seniors, many of who may not be able to stand for long periods or read if they are disabled or incapacitated in any way.

I'm wondering if some of this voter suppression won't backfire. I'm sure there are plenty of poor, rural Republicans and seniors who vote Republican who won't be able to get to the polls and/or obtain voter ID.

[Grammy23]

9. I agree with you about the long ballot being an issue in Florida---

Not only are there many issues but they are the complete amendments and are VERY long to spell out. If someone comes to their precinct to vote and has not prepared ahead of time by reading sample ballots and coming to conclusions well ahead of time, it is going to take forever to complete their ballot. Even if they DO know how they intend to vote, it will take time to get it done. I always check and double check my ballot when I vote just to make sure I voted the way I intended to vote, so if others do that, too, that just adds to the time necessary to vote.

This is going to be a real problem for places that may not have enough machines and expect a big turnout.

I intend to vote by Absentee Ballot, although I have heard from some relatives who object and say they just "throw those ballots away". I don't really believe that, although I guess anything is possible. But if they "flip the votes" using Diebold and suppress the vote with Voter ID laws, intentionally reduce the number of machines at the polling places, where does that leave us? I mean we're all choosing between the lesser of two (or three) evils, aren't we? I checked online and my registration says I am good to go for voting. So my husband and I plan to order our ballots here in Florida as soon as they are available and we'll cast our vote that way. What's dumb about that is that we won't have to present anything to get our ballots other than our signature on the outside of the envelope with the ballot. (Or at least that's how we did it in the past.) So I wonder if that is the solution for those who registered years ago and are afraid of being denied the right to vote this time?

It grieves me that so many people will be denied their right to vote this year and the ones doing it should be ashamed of themselves and should be prosecuted for their efforts to suppress another citizen's right to vote.

[bongbong]

4. Thanx MUCHO

> Plus, they have an 'Act Blue' link that identifies Senate candidates where a contribution does the most good

EXACTLY what I've been looking for. Just fired off some dough!

[Grammy23]

5. I wish that when they do these polls that they would ask---

for those that indicate they are changing their position (or taking one for the first time), WHY are you changing your position? Or Why are you selecting this candidate? What things (such as ads or brochures) influenced your opinion?

I would venture a guess that the 47 % tape is waking people up to the fact that Romney (and Ryan) do NOT care about the poor and the middle class. You really don't need a pundit to tell you what the tape said. You can watch it for yourself and come to that conclusion. So the effect of that tape should be measured, but my hunch is that it has had a HUGE effect on how people feel about Romney and Ryan. I would say for some it was a punch in the gut to realize how cold hearted Romney sounds on that tape.

A second factor is the tax returns. Finding out what Mitt's tax rate was, the financial gymnastics that had to be done to arrive at the magic rate of 14% and the reminder that we still don't know a lot about his finances is another thing that has to be chipping away at the people who will vote for him. I don't know where they will go....maybe just stay home on election day?? But since many will want to exercise their right to vote, maybe they will just vote to stay will Obama. The ones who are true Obama haters will perhaps stay home or find a third party candidate they can endorse (and throw away their vote.)

I don't hear too many of the talking heads admitting it yet that the video is a big factor.....but I know how it made me feel and I saw one relative comment on Facebook how "disappointed she was" when she saw the tape. And she had planned to vote for Romney but said she is not going to do that now. If one person posts....there are probably plenty more who won't post but will not vote for Romney. They will just quietly stay home and be sad or mad at their party for the candidate they offered.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

6. In order to provide a cushion that we'll need due to voter suppression, more traditional Republicans

like white males and older Americans need to be convinced to vote for Obama. If we can dip into Mitt Romney's voter base with moderate white males and seniors, there is hope. Otherwise I remain unconvinced about this electoral tide simply because the Republicans will do anything to stop Democrats from voting. Only if enough Republicans come over will I be convinced.

[LP2K12]

8. Fox News is also admitting to an Obama shift...

Obama builds lead in Ohio and Florida, poll shows

President Obama has widened his lead in two vital swing states where he and Mitt Romney are competing intensely for votes, according to results from a new poll out Wednesday.

The Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News poll showed Obama leading Romney in Ohio and Florida.

The survey showed Obama leading 53-43 percent in Ohio, and 53-44 percent in Florida.


Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/09/26/obama-builds-lead-in-ohio-and-florida-poll-shows/#ixzz27azQcUIH

[Grammy23]

10. But aren't they also be trying to cast doubt--

About the reliability of the polls? I think your average voter is not exactly a statistical expert and therefore rely heavily on the pundits to tell them what the polls mean, aside from the obvious percentages. Margin of error, sampling methods, the way the question is asked all go into making a poll meaningful (or reliable) or not. It seems to me that with the latest turn of events regarding the shift in the polls toward Obama, the Republicans are having to rely on dismissing the polls and making people distrust them. It's just about all they've got left. First they told us not to believe the 47 % tape....that's not the REAL Romney. Now they are telling us that the polls are wrong. Desperation is starting to creep out in their voices, their talking points and their ads. Oh and does anyone else notice how they have shifted their BIG HOPE to the debates?? It's all riding on the debates. Or so they say. Wonder what they will pin their hopes on if Mitt flubs the debates?

[Xyzse]

11. UnskewedPolls Data is crazy

It is adding points to existing poll data to skew it to their candidate of choice.
I am not sure how they are doing their math.

[JRLeft]

12. People need to vote absentee in Florida.

[yellowcanine]

13. But Romney says he is still even with Obama in the national polls but blames

Obama for the fact that he is behind in battleground states - or something.