Ad Spending tells the electoral story...

[WI_DEM]

*** Ad spending – the shrunken battleground: Last presidential cycle, then-candidate Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain were running ads in 21 states, according to SMG Delta – Obama (21): AZ, CO, FL, GA, IN, IA, ME, MI, MN, MO, MT, NV, NH, NM, NC, ND, OH, PA, VA, WV, and WI; McCain (16): CO, FL, IN, IA, ME, MN, MO, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, WV, WI.

This week, both campaigns are spending (so far) $19 million in the exact same states and there are just nine of them – IA, CO, FL, NC, NH, NV, OH, VA, and WI, with one outside group (Restore Our Future) running almost $1 million in ads in MI. Just look at all those states from last time to this. It’s a striking shift – the candidates are spending more money in fewer states and in fewer markets.

***Nowhere, by the way, that’s left out jumps out more than Pennsylvania and New Mexico. If this election is supposed to be like 2004, remember, George W. Bush only lost the Keystone state 2.5 points and he WON New Mexico (albeit by less than a point). It highlights, once again, how Romney has to largely run the table in these toss-up states and -- in the bigger political picture for the future – how the changing demographics currently favor Democrats. (With outside groups factored in, total spending is more than $33 million, with Team Romney outspending Team Obama $18.8 million to $14.5 million.)

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/25/14092687-first-thoughts-saturation?lite

[cyberswede]

1. NPR had an interesting piece on this

Evidently, campaigns know exactly by what margin they need to win or lose each market in order to carry a particular state. So, even if the candidate has no chance of winning a particular district/market, they may run ads in there to decrease the margin of loss (to balance out in the rest of the state).

http://www.npr.org/2012/09/24/161616073/ads-slice-up-swing-states-with-growing-precision

[Wellstone ruled]

2. This is all about

data bases,nothing more or nothing less. The GOP figured this out in the 70's and ran us Dems nuts. We argued with party bigwigs for funding for doing the same thing. You talk about blowback,this is why the GOP made such big inroads in blue states. They had us for lunch. When you can identify you support at the precinct and ward level,there you go,you got it made. There are always will be folks that are just as passionate as you are about a candidate and will door knock or do lit drops. Even lawn signs,or honk and waves. It's just damn good voter roll analysis.

The spaghetti theory just does not work,you have to target your like interested groups. Simple Psychology,people tend to gravitate toward likeness of their own. This is how Rove Brothers have proven very successful at F---en over people. We Dems have come to the game a bit late,but were smarter,and brighter,and besides were better. Notice how the Internet has cause the GOP major heart burn,people are making these Candidates look stupid when they through lie after lie out there. Corporate Media is but a shell of it's self,mainly because of the nets.