Civitas poll released on Monday September 24 -gives +4 edge to Obama over Romney in N.C.

[Douglas Carpenter]

RALEIGH --

A poll released Monday by the Civitas Institute shows President Barack Obama leading Republican Mitt Romney by four percentage points in North Carolina – the latest poll to show Obama gaining an edge in a state widely considered among 10 or so battleground states.

The poll was conducted for the conservative think tank by National Research on Sept. 18 and 19. It asked 600 likely voters who they would vote for if the election were held today; 49 percent chose Obama and Vice President Joe Biden, and 45 percent chose Romney and his running mate, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan.

When Libertarian candidates Gary Johnson and running mate James P. Gray were included, 47 percent said they favored Obama and Biden, 43 percent went for Romney and Ryan, and 4 percent favored the Libertarian ticket. It was the first Civitas poll to include the Libertarians.

The poll has a margin of error of four percentage points.

A High Point University poll released last week showed Obama with a slight edge among registered voters, 46 percent to 43 percent for Romney.

http://www2.journalnow.com/news/2012/sep/24/civitas-poll-gives-edge-to-obama-over-romney-in-nc-ar-2634841/

[TroyD]

1. As I posted on the other thread

They don't believe this poll at Free Republic. There's a thread there saying Obama is finished in NC and has pulled out.

[mnhtnbb]

2. Poll results were published in the Raleigh News & Observer today.

on the inside page 3. When you search--with EXACT words--on-line edition, the story won't come up!

Yes, a new poll from Civitas gives 47% to Obama and 43% to Romney in NC among a poll of 600 likely voters
taken Sept 18-19.

So this is the third poll in a week (High Point University and Purple Poll) to give the edge to Obama.

Pulling out? I don't think so!

[TroyD]

3. The one criticism of this poll

Is that it apparently oversampled Democrats. Is it true there are more Democrats in this sample than Republicans? Because that would be at odds with North Carolina's population.

Nevertheless, it is still one of several polls to show Obama ahead in NC, and that is the key point. That's why I'm hoping Obama toughs it out there for another 6 weeks. He certainly has a shot at winning.

[mnhtnbb]

4. There should be more Dems in the sample. Dem registration exceeds Repubs in NC

by more than 700,000.

Here are the latest registration numbers from the NC Board of Elections:

Voter Registration as of 09/25/2012 Democratic: 2,776,963 Republican: 2,007,999 Libertarian: 16,537 Unaffiliated: 1,651,002 Total: 6,452,501

http://www.ncsbe.gov/