2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumToday's Nate's 538 Primary Polls-Only Forecast: South Carolina-Hillary-90%, Bernie-10%
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/south-carolina-democratic/#polls-onlyAccording to our latest polls-only forecast, Hillary Clinton has an 90% chance of winning the South Carolina primary.
riversedge
(70,310 posts)Found some HillaryforSC posts for your thread. Hope ok
Hillary for SC Retweeted
Stephanie ?@FormasForever Jan 23
Mayor Joe Riley understands the stakes in the election. It's why he's supporting @HillaryClinton. #sctweets
:large
Alfresco
(1,698 posts)onehandle
(51,122 posts)The CLICKY-CLICKY will prevail!
[img][/img]
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)This will be a HUGE win for Hillary!
Alfresco
(1,698 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)and math and logic and reality.
randome
(34,845 posts)Imagine: a Bernie who can fly at will!
[hr][font color="blue"][center]A 90% chance of rain means the same as a 10% chance:
It might rain and it might not.[/center][/font][hr]
NanceGreggs
(27,818 posts)... because all polls are a product of "corporate math".
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)JRLeft
(7,010 posts)He has to win there.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)In 2008 it split 16/15/14 for Obama, Edwards, and Clinton respectively. A win in Iowa is a nice buzz, but it rarely actually matters in the long run.
JRLeft
(7,010 posts)joshcryer
(62,276 posts)A good showing in IA would still be OK, it wouldn't be the end, a bad loss or a surprise Dean style loss would end it very quickly.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)If he loses Iowa but wins NH, he would still be considered in the race.
Weird dynamic to be sure:
Clinton could lose both the first two states and Nevada and still be considered an overwhelming favorite due to the states that come after (If she loses those 3 and SC, on the other hand...).
Bernie could lose Iowa and win NH and still be considered a longshot. But, weirdly, that holds true even if he wins both.
If he manages to lose both, Clinton pivots to the GE and the primary becomes an afterthought.
For all practical purposes, Clinton has a three primary buffer versus a one primary buffer for Sanders.
Give Sanders credit, though, very few people even thought he'd be in the conversation at this point.
awake
(3,226 posts)I heard that all of his perdiction are wrong so far has anyone else heard that?
wildeyed
(11,243 posts)Seriously. He has a website. You don't need to rely on rumors. But also, he only just started primary forecasting, so there has not been an opportunity for him to be wrong.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)I am not sure that they will be as important this time around since the fight seems to be insider v outsider. The insider getting the establishment endorsements just don't seem as important.
Also...
http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/01/25/lawyer-for-walter-scott-family-switches-sides-to-endorse-bernie-sanders/
^snip^
The lawyer for the family of Walter L. Scott, who was fatally shot by a police officer in South Carolina, is withdrawing his support from Hillary Clinton and endorsing Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont on Monday afternoon.
On the bright side, it is nice to see Clinton supporters already retreating to her "firewall" states. Good luck with that.
wildeyed
(11,243 posts)Polls-plus puts her at 94/6.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/south-carolina-democratic/
underpants
(182,904 posts)and volunteers. There are still local party bosses in each party. Getting their support is important.
DefenseLawyer
(11,101 posts)Last edited Mon Jan 25, 2016, 04:19 PM - Edit history (1)
Jesse Jackson won South Carolina twice.
EndElectoral
(4,213 posts)Number23
(24,544 posts)Bill USA
(6,436 posts)There will be no room in Heaven for heretics like you!!!!!!
Alfresco
(1,698 posts)Ferd Berfel
(3,687 posts)His brand will be toast after Iowa and NH
Fearless
(18,421 posts)Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)If he is able to win any of those first four states, he will have been able to save face....and that is all.
underpants
(182,904 posts)for both parties.