2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIn 2008, Obama didn't Beat Hillary in Iowa in any polls until the very end of January
Sanders is doing better than that now.
From 2008: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html
And Bernie is crushing her in New Hampshire, something Obama couldn't do in a 3-way race.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html
Compare that with today's race and I think it explains a lot about the desperation of Hillary's campaign.
TIME TO PANIC
(1,894 posts)Punkingal
(9,522 posts)frazzled
(18,402 posts)And there were 8 candidates. Obama won with 38% of the vote. Five days later, on Jan. 8, Clinton took NH. So I don't know exactly why you are looking at Iowa polls from the end of January.
Yes, his chances increased after having won Iowa. But it was a long, hard-fought battle, with the popular vote neck and neck for many months. Clinton actually got more votes, but Obama got more delegates--it's a complex math. Could happen again this year, who knows. But my experience is that history rarely repeats itself. Rare, but possible.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)But I'll go ahead and rec this anyways.....because.....Bern baby!