Sept. 21: Presidential Race Changes, but Swing States Stay the Same - just posted 538

[NRaleighLiberal]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/21/sept-21-presidential-race-changes-but-swing-states-stay-the-same/?gwh=48C4B437E269F68A0DD4736CFB1F2549

We make an effort to be disciplined about the way that we characterize the polls each day. Generally speaking, if the FiveThirtyEight forecast moves appreciably toward President Obama, the tenor of the article is going to be favorable to him — and likewise for Mitt Romney, if the same is true for him.

If the forecast remains unchanged, we won’t try to emphasize the smallest ticks of movement.

Sometimes, though, a day’s worth of polling falls into the awkward middle ground between being a good day for one of the candidates and revealing little new information about the state of the campaign.

Friday was one such case: a reasonably strong day in the polls for Mr. Obama, but nothing that ought to alter our impressions of the race.

snip

[rufus dog]

1. To be expected

Obama is getting close to the ceiling of 347 EVs, which would include NC. Anything above that means a crash through the ceiling and picking up states that were thought to be out of reach, like GA, AZ, ND, SD, etc.

[CobaltBlue]

2. Romney losing ground with…

Mitt Romney is losing ground with…

• Seniors (the only age group which carried in 2008 for John McCain, by R+8)
• 18 to 29 (which voted more than 2-to-1 for Obama)
• Hispanics (which carried for Obama by D+36; they recently polled at D+42)
• Women (Obama won them by D+13; that margin will go substantially further north for his re-election)
• Men (Romney was recently polling as flipping them, by R+5 or R+6; Obama won them over at D+1; Obama's liable to win them again -- with the margin going further north)
• Military (which would serve as example of talk of realignment)
• Swing states (used a llittle loosely; but Obama's 2008 numbers in Florida, Ohio, Virginia are there for 2012. Fox News reports increases in the three, actually)
• Senate Republicans (seats that had leaned as GOP pickups are now tossup or leaning Dem; see Wisconsin as latest example where ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson is crediting Romney with potentially losing the race to Tammy Baldwin)
• House Republicans (down-ticket exposure; even Eric Cantor is probably in trouble)


What's left?

Predicting an electoral map. If seniors, in particular, shift further Democratic to the point they actually flip on Romney to carry for President Obama … that will be a landslide perhaps like the ones the GOPs had won in the 1970s and 1980s.