Rasmussen has Obama up 12 in PA

[TexasCPA]

PA is not a battleground state.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2012_pennsylvania_president

[bluestateguy]

1. Rasmussen poll + 5 pts. for the Democrat = real score (Obama +17)

T'sall.

[Arkana]

2. Guhwha?

Yeah, I guess we can move PA into the "Lean/Safe" category.

[colin62]

3. Definitely good news

I live in central PA about 45 minutes south of Harrisburg. I'm surrounded by Obama haters. Seriously, you would not believe some of the things I've overheard. Anyone who thinks racism doesn't factor in to why some people dislike Obama are fooling themselves.

[TroyD]

4. That's a huge lead

We know Obama is ahead in PA, but I'm surprised to see Rasmussen put it as high as 12 points.

Usually Obama hasn't been above 9 points in the other polls. I hope Rasmussen isn't up to something.

[CobaltBlue]

5. Pennsylvania

… won by Obama in 2008 by D+10.31.

In Pennsylvania approximately every 60,000 raw votes serve as 1-percentage point differential. Obama won the state by more than 600,000 votes and that is why he took it by more than 10 percent.

This 12-point lead means he not only performing his 2008 margin there but also getting a nice shift.

[TroyD]

6. That's why I wondered above how it could be this high

Is this a legitimate poll ?

I guess if Romney is tanking in PA it's possible he could do worse than McCain, although we didn't expect that would happen when this year started.

[CreekDog]

7. because McCain in 2008 didn't seem as right wing as the new team

and basically most urban areas, especially the Northeast have swung further to the left, as they've been doing for years now. some of that is a social change of opinion, the other is changing demographics.

the same pattern happening in the Northeast really took off in the Bay Area in the mid-80's and has grown more solid ever since.

[Doctor Jack]

8. McCain went aggressively after Pennsylvania in 2008

It didn't help at all but it could explain why the margin was somewhat closer. In the last few weeks, he sunk everything he had into that race.

[DCBob]

9. I think Rasmutten is finally coming clean.

I suspect he's thinking he might as well give the real numbers now since Romney is going to lose anyway.