Rasmussen Poll - Obama up 2 in Nevada

[TexasCPA]

So that really means Obama is up about 7. Right?

[jenmito]

1. And they have his approval/disapproval at 51/48 today! n/t

[Jennicut]

2. Gallup is tied and has Obama's approval at 46/48.

Sigh. Rasmussen and Gallup are so all over the place that I find little trust in either one of them anymore. Rasmussen is obvious but Gallup is head scratching.

Or maybe tracking polls are at their very nature more prone to statistical noise.

[mvd]

3. Gallup is extremely head scratching

I can think of no reason Romney gained today. Probably one good Romney day is in there from earlier, but I have read on DU that Gallup has a pro-Romney slant with its voter model.

[Daniel537]

4. Most of the polls in 08 had Nevada in single digits

and of course Obama ended up winning by 13, and combine that with the large increase in Hispanic voters, and i really don't see Nevada being that close.

[TroyD]

5. We have to compare it to their last poll

What did the previous Rasmussen poll for Nevada say? Is this an improvement or a decrease?

[TexasCPA]

6. Worse than previous Rasmussen

July - Obama +5
September - Obama +2

[TroyD]

7. Hmm. It could have narrowed, I suppose

There was a report yesterday that the Utah GOP has been sending resources next door into Nevada to help Romney.

But Romney has not lead in a single Nevada poll this year to my knowledge. I think Nate Silver said something like that recently. The odds are about 75% in favor of Obama winning Nevada.

[TroyD]

8. This is the only NEVADA poll since the conventions

It seems like most pollsters have ignored this state over the past month. So there's not much to go on right now.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nv/nevada_romney_vs_obama-1908.html

But I think CNN has a NEVADA poll coming out at 4:00 pm today according to a CNN Producer on Twitter. That might help set things straight.